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SPECIAL GUEST: GRAHAM SUMMERS is the Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research, , an independent financial research firm based in Charlottesville, VA. He writes Gain, Pains, and Capital, the firm’s FREE daily e-letter covering the equity, commodity, currency, and real estate markets. Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a weekly investment advisory devoted to helping paying clients navigate the financial markets and produce outsized returns from their investments. To whit, Graham called the 2008 Crash and was one of the few newsletter writers to produce positive gains that year. Graham Summers worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He has made presentations on investment ideas to high net worth clients in Dubai, Singapore, Zurich, Playa Del Carmen and his research has been quoted by Crain's New York Business, Money Talk Radio, Reuters, and RollingStone Magazine to name a few publications.
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GRAHAM SUMMERS TALKS
FINANCIAL REPRESSION
Published 04-28-15
34 Minutes
FINANCIAL REPRESSION
"When I think of repression I think of the Psychological concept that repression is the suppression (or pushing back) of something that is too painful to deal with in sort of a conscious way. That is exactly what the central banks of the world have been doing essentially since 2008. What we had in 2008 was the beginning of a debt deleveraging cycle o the dreaded debt deflation. The economists often like to argue that deflation is terrible but they are being overly general because deflation is actually a wonderful thing (we all want to have things we want to buy be cheaper) but the issue for the economists or Keynesian's is 'debt deflation'".
When debt begins to deflate you run the risk of becoming insolvent particularly in the bond market.
"Because we have been in this debt leveraging cycle for over 30 years ( a bond bubble would be the simplest way of putting it) the central banks are all terrified of a bond bear market because that means that almost instantly all developed nations are bankrupt because the way they have papered over the decline in living standard is by issuing more debt. It has gotten to the point now where because we don't have the money to pay the debt back we are issuing new debt to roll over the old debt (or pay back the old debt)."
"It sounds like a Ponzi scheme and it actually is!It works relatively well while the bond or underlying asset is rising in value because the debt is getting cheaper and the yield is falling
"When it reverses if you don't have the money to pay back the bond so you start to enter a deflationary cycle which is what we had in 2008.
WATCH WHAT THE FED DOES - NOT WHAT IT SAYS
"Most of what the central banks talk about is nonsense. If you watch their actions it is about how do we stop the bond bubble from blowing up? They have done that by three ways:
They cut interest rates down to zero. By doing this they made it much easier to finance debt.
They began engaging in Quantitative Easing (QE). They essentially print money and buy large assets from the banks. It started out as Mortgaged Backed Securities (MBS) because they were the assets devaluing fastest. The second and third rounds were just attempts to keep the whole thing afloat. By Buying bonds you are basically broadcasting to the world I am going to be buying this asset in the near future. The most obviously trade is then for you to buy the bond before you and then turn around and sell it to you for a profit. Globally investors have essentially been front running the central banks.
They suspended accounting standard. This was so banks weren't forced to sell devaluing products but could maintain using them as collateral at higher required values.
"Essentially Repression was the Central Banks trying to repress the terror of debt deflation!"
"All of this has manifested a sort of financial perversion where you seeing capital doing all sorts of crazy things and flowing into areas it would have never gone to before because risk has been so mis-priced by the market."
TROUBLING ISSUES
$555T INTEREST SWAPS
All Interest Swaps are trading "hinged" on Bond Collateral which is in a massive bubble,
Something may be up when the Plunge Protection Team takes up increasing residence in Chicago where Bernanke is now consulting to Citadel (the largest High Frequency Trading player in America) also in Chicago.
$72T SHADOW BANKING
The source of the 2008 Financial Crisis has mutated to new instruments to borrow short to finance Student Loans and Car Loans. The Shadow Banking Systems now "hinges" on Repos, Collateral Transformations and Rehypothecation.
USD CARRY BLOWING UP
The $9T US$ carry Trade is hinging on ~$5T in merging Markets which ar now on the wrong side of the trade as the US dollar spikes,
"When it gets serious you can expect the central bankers to lie!"
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SPECIAL GUEST: JOHN BROWNE is the Senior Market Strategist for Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. Mr. Brown is a distinguished former member of Britain's Parliament who served on the Treasury Select Committee, as Chairman of the Conservative Small Business Committee, and as a close associate of then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Among his many notable assignments, John served as a principal advisor to Mrs. Thatcher's government on issues related to the Soviet Union, and was the first to convince Thatcher of the growing stature of then Agriculture Minister Mikhail Gorbachev. As a partial result of Brown's advocacy, Thatcher famously pronounced that Gorbachev was a man the West "could do business with." A graduate of the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Britain's version of West Point and retired British army major, John served as a pilot, parachutist, and communications specialist in the elite Grenadiers of the Royal Guard.
In addition to careers in British politics and the military, John has a significant background, spanning some 37 years, in finance and business. After graduating from the Harvard Business School, John joined the New York firm of Morgan Stanley & Co as an investment banker. He has also worked with such firms as Barclays Bank and Citigroup. During his career he has served on the boards of numerous banks and international corporations, with a special interest in venture capital. He is a frequent guest on CNBC's Kudlow & Co. and a former contributing editor and columnist of NewsMax Media's Financial Intelligence Report and Moneynews.com. He holds FINRA series 7 & 63 licenses.
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JOHN BROWNE TALKS
FINANCIAL REPRESSION
Published 04-27-15
40 Minutes
FINANCIAL REPRESSION
"It is the financial repression of the ordinary individual in America. It is happening through three main avenues or arteries.
POLITICALLY - The government is increasing its power almost everyday and repressing the public individual and particularly the rights of the individual. Always under the guise that it to help you! Published statistics are highly questionable; growth rates, inflation rates, unemployment rates. They are confusing people and today I read how they are forcing people out of using cash!
ECONOMICALLY - We have had an enormous, unprecedented injection of cash into the economy with a $3.8T QE program. Its an experiment! It was initiated in Japan where two decades ago the BOJ said it wouldn't work but the politicians insisted they do it. After two decades it still hasn't worked. We are now doing it on a grand scheme without a pilot program. It is creating a (liquidity) trap. It is a major distortion and is crushing savers.
FINANCIALLY - ZIRP is (also) crushing savers! It is savings which forms investment for the future. 62% of employment comes from small businesses where formation must be incented. That needs capital from savings. This along with increasing regulation is not only killing the consumer but the incentive to start a small business which is the key to the creation of jobs, which is key to the creation of income which is then key to savings and growth in the economy. It has all been killed by these policies.
"I don't believe the central bank is necessarily evil, just unbelievably Irresponsible!
LIQUIDITY TRAP
"I think we are now seeing a situation which you could call a liquidity trap. There is so much money around that if they start to raise interest rates they are going to discourage people even more from spending. Ordinary individuals have low wages (wages have been flat for six years at least) yet taxes are going up (the number of taxes) as well as charges (licenses and fees)"
"They are pushing on a string. It isn't liquidity that matters but wages and income!"
"How does the Fed create income without just giving us cash in the post (mail) by just sending us checks?
BY DESIGN
"I'm afraid I believe at the very top it is devious! If I connect all the dots together I cannot feel it is by accident - it by design. I think the president wants to distribute American wealth around America, but even worse is to distribute American wealth around the world. Its killing the economy and its kiliing America."
"It means (eventually) everyone is going to look towards the government for solutions - that is when totalitarian governments come in (to existence)"
"The only solution is single term politicians - Turkey's don't vote for an early Thanksgiving!"
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SPECIAL GUEST HOST:JOHN RUBINO, Author & Publisher of DollarCollapse.com
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DE-DOLLARIZATION
with John Rubino & Gordon T Long
Published 04-20-15
35 Minute Video
IT BEGINS!
John Rubino and Gordon T Long discuss the status of global De-Dollarization within the context of three developing macro events:
THE ASIAN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT BANK (AIIB) “MUTINY”
PUTIN’S EURASIA CURRENCY PROPOSAL
MOUNTING PETRODOLLAR MERCANTILISM PRESSURES
It is clear from insiders that:
"China plans to push for yuan to take prominence in loans under the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund. China may encourage $100b AIIB and $40b Silk Road Fund to issue loans directly in yuan or set up yuan-denominated funds under the two institutions. This is according to the people, who ask not to be identified because deliberations are private.”
Beijing will push for the yuan to be included in a basket of currencies used to denominate and settle loans from the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), according to think tank sources.
Beijing will also encourage the AIIB and the Silk Road Fund to set up special currency funds and issue yuan-denominated loans through both institutions, the sources said.
If the US dollar is used, it weakens China’s bid for the yuan to be a global currency.
The efforts are part of a drive to internationalize the Chinese currency and come as the International Monetary Fund prepares to discuss the possible inclusion of the yuan as its fifth reserve currency and as part of the basket that forms the IMF's Special Drawing Rights.
The sources' claims appeared to be confirmed by a state media report, which said that a basket of currencies called the "AIIB CURRENCY" would most likely be adopted as the bank's currency of settlement…
Hao Hong, chief economist and managing director of research at Bocom International, said - China should do its best to establish the yuan as a currency for settlement and denomination.
PUTIN’S EURASIA CURRENCY PROPOSAL
"The time has come to start thinking about forming a currency union," Mr Putin
The EEU is an economic union which comprises Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia. Kyrgyzstan is also set to join the bloc.
MOUNTING PETRODOLLAR MERCANTILISM PRESSURES
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SPECIAL GUEST:MIKE ("Mish") SHEDLOCK , Publisher of the Global Economic Analysis Blog.
An espoused self educated Austrian Economist, Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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MISH SHEDLOCK TALKS
AMERICA'S PENSION PROBLEM
Published 04-18-15
Mish Shedlock talks about the magnitude of the mounting Pension Problem in America and uses his home state of Illinois as a prime example. According to a State Budget Solutions, last year’s state unfunded pensions reached an all-time high of $4.7 trillion. This funding gap state public pension plans are underfunded by $4.7 trillion, up from $4.1 trillion in 2013. Overall, the combined plans' funded status has dipped three percentage points to 36%. Split among all Americans, the unfunded liability is over $15,000 per person.
PENDING PENSION CRISIS
"Illinois Pension's in general are 39% funded! This is after this massive rally we have had since 2009 in financial assets. Some of the worst ones are only about 20% funded."
"Various cities in Illinois have problems, Chicago being one of them. The City of Chicago has a huge pension crisis right now. We have things in Illinois like "Home Rule Taxes" where cities can levy their own taxes in addition to the state. That is why we have varying sales tax that range anywhere from 6.25% to 10%, depending on locality."
"I have been working with the Illinois Policy Institute on pension and bankruptcy issues. There are a number of cities in Illinois that are ready to file bankruptcy. The problem is they can't file bankruptcy because the state doesn't allow it."
"The fundamental problem is they have made more promises than they can possibly keep!"
GAMING THE SYSTEM
The problem is "you have police and fire workers who can retire after 20 years ... and collect up to 70% of their earnings based on the 5 highest years salaries. We see a lot of pension spiking in the last few years where for example police work overtime (which counts towards their best five years) so these workers stand to collect far more in retirement (total years in retirement) than they actually ever made while working (total years worked).
"Tax payers are actually funding the employees portion of the pensions by excessive wages and direct contributions ".
"Chicago floated General Obligation Bonds to fund current expenses. That is illegal! We have bonds here in Illinois that are called tax exempt on the basis they are supposed to be funding long term infrastructure expenses that are funding short term needs."
OSCENE PROPERTY TAXES
"Taxes in Illinois are are already obscene. A homeowner on a $600,000 home can expect to pay $14-15,000 per year - every year on property taxes. Do you really own your own home in Illinois?"
"Pensions are so underfunded in Illinois that they are going to go bust in the next slowdown. I believe one (a slowdown) is on the way."
LOOMING CRISIS GLOBALLY
Negative interest rates are sweeping the globe. How will states, cities and towns fund themselves and their pension obligations in an era of potential negative nominal bond rates?
Returns on the heavily weighted funds' bond holdings are being potentially destroyed , while
State bond offerings are likely to face mounting issues around maintaining investor attraction with such monstrous overhang levels of unfunded pension liabilities.
"How will states, cities and towns fund (attract) long term assets with 15 year negative bonds?"
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SPECIAL GUEST: RICK RULE , is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Sprott US Holdings, Inc. Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences, and is interviewed for numerous radio, television, print and online media outlets concerning natural resource investment and industry topics. He is frequently quoted and referred by prominent natural resource oriented newsletters and advisories. Mr. Rule has a long experience in many resource sectors including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining and water. Mr. Rule is particularly active in private placement markets, having originated and participated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public and public companies.
Rick Rule is a no nonsense and frank market participant with sound commonsense from over 40 years of being part of the nature resource sector.
FINANCIAL REPRESSION
"Financial controls or 'trickery' imposed on the public by the state."
"There is certainly financial 'trickery' imposed on us by large financial institutions but they do that utilizing the state or in conjunction with the state. The practical manifestation of Financial Repression are all around us. I would suggest that a large part of the mandate of the Securities and Exchange Commission as an example is to effect barriers to entry to smaller participants in the securities business.
The most egregious forms of Financial Repression are in the first instance:
Tax (which many regard as slavery - I don't but regard it as extortion!)
The Manipulation of Interest Rates and
The Manipulation of the Currency."
"The interest rates payable to savers relative to the real rate of depreciation of the purchasing power of - pick one: the dollar, the euro, the yen - are despicable!"
ALAN GREENSPAN
"As recently as October last year I had the pleasure of listening to Alan Greenspan who ironically (despite the fact he is a vowed libertarian and architect of a lot of this Financial Repression) and he said something very stark too the audience! He said that a sound currency is not consistent with a representative democracy. A sound currency benefits the productive class and savers. In a representative democracy most of the people are spenders. Low interest rates and a depreciating currency aids the spenders and borrowers. It doesn't aid the savers. In that context Financial Repression is understandable and I'm afraid inevitable."
EXTRAORDINARY FAITH &"RETURN FREE RISK"
"We appear to be in a place in history and the economy where there is extraordianary faith in the big thinkers in the world - the Merkels, the Obamas, the Greenspans, the Yellens. It is partly this faith that is allowing them to keep these interest rates this low. It is a belief that the big thinkers of the world "stick handled" societies global financial crisis of 2008 and by managing the levers of the economy, managed to save us from ourselves. I would of course disagree with that diagnosis (but no one cares much what I think). I certainly believe that savers will tire of buying financial instruments that have no real yield. If you think about the value proposition as an example offered up by the bellwether savings instrument world wide (the US 10 Year Treasury) yielding 1.8%. What that means is the Fed absolutely, positively guarantees you 1.8% per year for 10 years. The difficulty I have with that is that even at their ascribed CPI inflation rate, what they are promising you is 20 basis points a year in real yield. Jim Grant famously described that as "Return Free Risk".
INVESTMENT IN LONG TERM PRODUCTIVE ASSETS
Rick Rule feels that the perverse incentives from manipulated data has resulted in a lack of investment within the US in Productive Assets that would allow the employment of technology and the real wages of workers to rise.
The reason is:
1- If you aren't seeing underlining demand and top line sales growth in your business, why would invest in productive capacity?
2- The US Tax Code is anti-growth. Depreciation schedules are much more investor friendly even in socialist countries today that in the US.
GOLD
"I don't know what is going to happen with gold short term". "What will move Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium are first and foremost is a reduction in confidence in the US dollar and the US 10 Year Treasury. It important to understand that gold doesn't need to win the war. It just needs to lose the war less badly!"
"Gold has performed admirably outside the US over the last year."
Gold can be seen to be already in a Bull Market globally - except in the US, as a result of a 25% rise in the US dollar.
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SPECIAL GUEST: LEO KOLIVAKIS , is an independent senior pension and investment analyst having worked on both the buy and sell-side. He has researched and invested in traditional and alternative asset classes at two of the largest public pension funds in Canada, the Caisse de He has also consulted to the Treasury Board Secretariat of Canada on the governance of the Federal Public Service Pension Plan (2007) and been invited to speak at the Standing Committee on Finance (2009) and the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Commerce and Trade (2010) to discuss Canada's pension system. Leo Kolivakis is editor and publisher the PensionPulse.blogspot.com
Leo Kolivakis brings a unique perspective to Pensions having worked on both the Buy & Sell side as a Pension Plan analyst.
TITANIC GLOBAL BATTLE
Kolivakis sees a titanic battle going on around the world between Inflation & Deflation with the world shifting due to demographics, private / public debt problems and a global jobs crisis. As a result he sees bond yields falling because it is resulting in no inflation. "The bond market is rightly concerned about tight fiscal policy and austerity in a world of low growth, low inflation (possibly deflation) for a prolonged period of time". "I am more worried about what is going on in China .. if you have a boom-bust scenario in China, the potential to import deflation (ie through lower goods prices, currency devaluation etc) is a significant concern".
PENSIONS IN PERIL
"I believe there is a Private and Public Pension Crisis in America that needs to be openly discussed by US citizens & politicians. The private savings crisis in America shows the median 401K balance is under $20,000 and somewhere around $76,000 for people 60-65 years of age. That is definitely not enough money to retire comfortably for the rest of your life!"
"In the private sector where corporations are cutting defined benefit programs and going to low cost defined contribution plans, there is another crisis happening." People are being forced to take on the responsibility of pension investment management decisions.
"Individuals are now caring the risk of their retirement!"
"What people don't realize is the shift to Defined Contributions is very deflationary. People simply don't spend as much as they do on Defined Benefits when they have known fixed incomes."
GOVERNANCE PROBLEMS
"There is a huge problem with the Public Pension Funds in the United States. The problem focuses around the governance model. It is all wrong! They have way too much political interference. They don't have proper pension fund plan managers that can take internal actions, lower the costs of the funds and ... match assets with liabilities"
"The US needs to consider privatizing Social Security and creating independent investment boards."
"What is going on in the US right now is you have a lot of investment consulting shops that are typically forcing these public pension funds to invest in very high fee, high risk private equity / hedge funds. That is fine for the Private Equity Funds and Hedge Funds but it is not in the best interest of these public pension funds. I don't think it is. As a matter of fact I know it is not!"
"The US really needs to reform its Public Pension Plans. To introduce shared risk models so that the risk of the plan is shared between the stakeholders (i.e. the employees), the government and the pension. They need to reform the governance so they start to pay the pension plan managers properly to manage more and more of the assets internally".
"Pension Investments Are Fueling Inequality! The migration of Pension Plans to Alternative Investments such as Private Equity / Hedge Funds are contributing to the growth in Inequality"
PENSION POVERTY
DEFINED BENEFITS - A massive underfunding problem between $7 - $10T
CONTRIBUTORY BENEFITS - Median 401K Levels of $18,400 are 'orders of magnitude' short,
SELF FUNDING - IRA and Roth Plans are not earning the levels of income required for retirement. Market draw-downs have seriously impaired long term growth,
SAVINGS RATES - Falling Real Disposable Income is increasingly limiting already extremely low personal savings rates.
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
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The Media is not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. The Media is not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Terms of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility.
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Gordon emperically recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, he encourages you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
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