Axel Merk, Lance Roberts, F.William Engdahl, Catherine Austin Fitts, Bert Dohmen, David Chapman, Bill Laggner, Richard Duncan, Michael Snyder, John Williams, Rick Davies AND MORE...
Special Guest:LANCE ROBERTS Lance’s investment strategies and knowledge have been featured on Fox 26, CNBC, Fox Business News and Fox News. He has been quoted by a litany of publications from the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post all the way to TheStreet.com as well as on several of the nation's biggest financial blogs such as the Pragmatic Capitalist, Zero Hedge and Seeking Alpha.
Regular Co-Host:CHARLES HUGH SMITH , Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com
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DOW 20,000?
with Special Guest LANCE ROBERTS
Principal of STA Wealth Management
& Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long
24 Minutes, 32 Slides
In Part II of this multi part series we ask Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long whether they see DOW 20,000 or DOW 5,000 ahead, and when?
CHARLES HUGH SMITH
Charles sees the US economy facing a Willie E Coyote moment! The markets are no longer a 'Buy & Hold" investment as he expects volatility while the markets complete a Megaphone Top. If the markets reach 20,000 it is not a legitimate top, but rather a false one. As the megaphone pattern suggests, the markets will just as likely be followed by DOW 5,000, as excessive mal-investment and mispricing is wrung out of the markets.
Charles Hugh Smith argues through supporting charts that:
1- CORPORATE EARNINGS & DEBT: Corporate Debt has been growing at a much larger rate than Corporate EBITDA for sometime now. Earnings need to be growing faster than debt for a DOW 20,000 to be legitimate.
2- FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT versus SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFICIARIES: Full Time Employment has not been growing as fast as Social Security Beneficiaries. This is unsustainable. The solution will require higher taxes or cuts in benefits. Both will reduce household disposable income in a 70% consumption based economy. How do corporations further increase profits from record levels while facing such a secular shift?
3- PRODUCTIVITY: US productivity has increased 58% since the mid 90's. Meanwhile government spending is up 300% and financial markets have doubled. This makes rising markets unsustainable.
Without these three metrics being dramatically reversed, any DOW 20,000 is not legitimate. Though in nominal termsthe market may reach these lofty levels, in real terms this will be quite a different matter.
GORDON T LONG
Gordon T Long looks at the question from a Macro perspective and argues that we need to analyze the Wiemar Germany of the 20's by considering what would have been different if:
1- Germany had been the world's reserve currency?
2- If the rest of the world had not been on the gold standard but were all fiat currencies?
The answer suggests the road we are currently on is a modified form of the von Mises Crack-up Boom.
Gordon's market charts will leave you with a different perspective.
Listen to Part I - Lance Roberts. In the upcoming Part III John Rubino shares his outlook.
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Special Guest:LANCE ROBERTS Lance’s investment strategies and knowledge have been featured on Fox 26, CNBC, Fox Business News and Fox News. He has been quoted by a litany of publications from the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post all the way to TheStreet.com as well as on several of the nation's biggest financial blogs such as the Pragmatic Capitalist, Zero Hedge and Seeking Alpha.
Regular Co-Host:CHARLES HUGH SMITH , Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com
OPEN ACCESS
DOW 20,000?
with Special Guest LANCE ROBERTS
Principal of STA Wealth Management
& Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long
20 Minutes, 25 Slides
In Part I of this multi part series we ask Lance Roberts whether he sees DOW 20,000 or DOW 5,000 ahead, and when?
The economics and fundamentals overwhelmingly suggest the US equity market is now being driven solely by Federal Reserve liquidity injections.
The only way Lance can see DOW 20,000 is to see the market as being in stage 3 of a classic 'blowoff' market cycle:
Phase 1: What Bull Market? Just A Bounce Before The Next Crash.
Phase 2: I Missed The Bottom So I Will Wait For A Pullback.
Phase 3: Market Is Going Up Forever, Just Get On And Ride.
He argues convincingly that Bull Markets don't start from these levels and with these market metrics. His Economic Output Composite Index supports this view.
Listen as Lance kicks-off this discussion with Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long, who share their views as the three go around the table outlining out their respective views (Part II - Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long).
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SPECIAL GUEST:MICHAEL SNYDER, Author & Publisher of TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com
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PART II
Coming Collateral Contagion
(Credit Freeze II)
SPECIAL GUEST: MICHAEL SNYDER
18 Minutes, 29 Slides
We are marching steadily towards the first Global Liquidity Trap. The evidence is clear when the facts are thoughtfully analyzed.
With the clear thinking of a trained lawyer, Michael Snyder in four articles in Part I points out the startling realities of what is shaping our world. In Part II Michael ties these together with his views and interpretations. His conclusions fit very well within the Globalization Trap Model developed by GordonTLong.com.
TIME FOR PRUDENT PREPARATION & ECONOMIC INSURANCE
The framework outlined allowed both participants to draw important conclusions on what investors should be doing to prepare for this high probability eventuality.
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SPECIAL GUEST HOST:JOHN RUBINO, Author & Publisher of DollarCollapse.com
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The Fed Shocker
PART II
The Consequences
Gordon T Long & John Rubino
20 Minutes, 32 Slides
The Fed shocked the markets with its reversal on the expected September initiative of a "Taper" Policy. What are the consequences of this apparent "delay"?
There are immediate ramification and there are others associated with Moral Hazard and (Un)intended Consequences due to a protracted period of what can only be termed Monetary Malpractice. These and the following are discussed in this video by Gordon T Long and John Rubino.
CLEARLY EVIDENT
With economy decelerating and interest rates already rising, Fed can’t end QE.
Massive infusions of new dollars for as far as the eye can see.
Rising danger of instability.
Hot money flows back into emerging markets, destabilizing them AGAIN.
Weaker dollar?
Rising precious metals?
Stock market? Technically ready for a major correction, but all that new money…
Bonds? Fed will keep trying to force long rates down. Will they succeed?
NOT SO EVIDENT
A Glimpse At What Will Be a Much Larger Problem - The Fed Was Caught Off Guard in June!
We have Past the Event Horizon and a Return Near Impossible without a Crisis - Credibility Shaken.
We Now Have Global “Abe-nomics”
Serious Shortage of Risk Free Collateral - The TBAC Warning Left Unheeded
Mispricing & Mal-Investment
Elements of Moral Hazard and Unintended
Currency Wars Return - Now “Risk-On” with Hot Money Flows
The question John & Gordon grapple with is whether the Fed has now intentionally or unintentionally placed the world on the road to a Von Mises Crackup Boom?
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
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SCHEDULE
The Fed shocked the markets with its reversal on the expected September initiative of a "Taper" Policy. What are the consequences of this apparent "delay"? 
