GLOBAL SLOWDOWN STEEPENING (Sectional Update - 446 Page .pdf)
Credit Cycle is Reacting

GLOBAL SLOWDOWN STEEPENING (Summary Highlights - 98 Page .pdf)
Credit Cycle is Reacting

ALL INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC MONITORING INSTITUTIONS ARE WARNING

Governments and central banks risk tipping the world into a fresh financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund has warned, as it called time on a corporate debt binge in the developing world. Emerging market companies have “over-borrowed” by $3 trillion in the last decade, reflecting a quadrupling of private sector debt between 2004 and 2014, found the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report.

This dangerous over-leveraging now threatens to unleash a wave of defaults that will imperil an already weak global economy, said stark findings from the IMF’s twice yearly report.

BIS: Quote or Title (Link)
BIS warns “unrealistic and dangerous to expect that monetary policy can cure all the global economy’s ills”. Warns that recent turmoil is not caused by isolated incidents:

– Debt levels are now so extreme they threaten the financial system,
– Ultra low rates have led to mal-investment and bigger boom/bust cycles,
– Emerging markets vulnerable to deeper crises,
– ECB easy money may juice markets for a while but reckoning is coming,
– BIS acknowledge that central banks rig markets,          
– Gold and silver protect against crises in financial system.

OECD:  OECD Chief Economist Catherine Mann said It's Time To "Temper The Frothiness" In Markets as the head of the OECD, Angel Gurría says spendthrift countries are leaving themselves exposed to next shock.

WB: World Bank's chief economist Kaushik Basu has warned “The world economy is looking so troubled that if the US goes in for a very quick move in the middle of this I feel it is going to affect countries quite badly."

IMF: IMF Fears $3 Trillion Credit Crunch; Lagarde Says "IMF Credibility at Stake", Calls for US to Give China More Voting Power. In its half-yearly update on the health of the world economy, the Washington-based fund predicted expansion of 3.1% in 2015, 0.2 points lower than it was expecting three months ago and the weakest performance since the trough of the downturn in 2009. The IMF is warning that the weak recovery in the west risks turning into near stagnation after cutting its global economic growth forecast for the fourth successive year.  “Despite considerable differences in country-specific outlooks, the new forecasts mark down expected near-term growth rates marginally, but nearly across the board. Moreover, downside risks to the world economy appear more pronounced than they did just a few months ago.”

DECEMBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

DECEMBER VIDEO

GLOBAL SLOWING STEEPENING

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the AUGUST 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

"QE FOR THE PEOPLE" (Sectional Update - 1029 Page .pdf)
Helicopter Money (OMF) Coiming During the Next Drawdown

"QE FOR THE PEOPLE" (Summary Highlights - 96 Page .pdf)
Helicopter Money (OMF) Coiming During the Next Drawdown

When a country consumes more than it produces for a sustained period of time, its Fiscal & Monetary choices will steadily decline. We would argue slowly at first, then faster. Correlated with US credit growth it is also exponential!

Because of this we believe the Federal Reserve and other developed economies’ central banks will soon be forced to roll out, or unleash in a coordinated fashion, a number of new policies to stem a potential global economic crisis.

QE IS NOT WORKING - So fully expect authorities to double-down and broaden their ill conceived monetary experiment!

In previous reports we have laid out that easy credit, quantitative easing and ZIRP initially brought demand forward. More importantly, this excess credit fostered a massive global oversupply. Quantitative Easing has stopped bringing demand forward and in fact is now working against this by reducing Pricing Power and unleashing powerful global deflationary pressures. More and more economists are recognizing this and writing about it.

The real possibility of an economic recession is looming. The central bankls will be forced to use new tools to fight this threat

NOVEMBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

NOVEMBER AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS (Sectional Update - 966 Page .pdf)
Too Much Supply & Too Many Brands Combine with Too Much Credit

THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS (Summary Highlights - 55 Page .pdf)
Too Much Supply & Too Many Brands Combine with Too Much Credit

The world faces both broad global economic issues imbalances as well as increasingly dangerous regional problems. Whether these regional dilemmas are:

• The Syrian refugee problem in Europe,
• Russia and China placing military assets on Syrian soil,
• The collapse in commodity prices from oil in the Middle East / Russia to basic materials in Emerging Economies,
• The collapsing Chinese stock market and China's global export growth,
• The lack of well paying jobs and growing youth unemployment in the developed economies,
• The politcal corruption issues in Brazil or a Communist taking the reins of the UK Labor Party,

.. the world is a 'tinderbox' which any conflict can potentially ignite into a global fire.

This month we examine these regional headaches through a broad array of insightful charts.

OCTOBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

OCTOBER VIDEO

THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Global, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the OCTOBER 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

ECHO BOOM - Revisited (Sectional Update - 916 Page .pdf)
Emerging Markets Feeling the Pain

ECHO BOOM - Revisited (Summary Highlights - 55 Page .pdf)
Emerging Markets Feeling the Pain

SEPTEMBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

SEPTEMBER VIDEO

THE ECHO BOOM - Revisited

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the AUGUST 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE