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"Currency Wars "
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"EXTEND & PRETEND "
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"SULTANS OF SWAP"
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ACT I
Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

"EURO EXPERIMENT"
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EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?

"UR all PIGS from HELL

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"INNOVATION"
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INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

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PRESERVE & PROTECT:  The Jaws of Death

 

 

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AUGUST 2016

July 28th, 2016

 

 

 

AMERICA MUST CHOOSE THE ROAD AHEAD (Sectional Update - 491 Page .pdf)
An Election for the Sole of America

AMERICA MUST CHOOSE THE ROAD AHEAD (Summary Highlights - 99 Page .pdf)
An Election for the Sole of America

There is a US Recession coming and potentially a Global Recession.

The Central Bankers are acutely aware of this and are tring to head it off at the pass with extraordinary liquidity infusions. The combined injections are now $180B per month which is easily double QE3 was. This is a level never seen before and if Japan follows with a rumored 28T in YEN liqudity there can be little doubt the global G4 central bankers have pushed the panic button!

As expected the liquidity is temporarily buoying the financial markets.

What can only be described as chaos within the current US Presidental cycle is adding to the instability associated with Brexit, gloabl terrorist attacks and Geo-Political events (Turkey) and conficts (South China Sea and Korea).

 

 

QUICK REFERENCE INDEX

AUGUST 2016

July 28th, 2016

 

 

 

AUGUST 2016 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
US Macro Overlay
07-25-16
38
Economic Indicators
07-25-16
34
Business Cycle - Analysis

07-25-16
104
  Business Cycle - Jobs 07-25-16
24
  Business Cycle - Sentiment 07-25-16
38
  Business Cycle - Consumption
07-25-16
13
  Business Cycle - Growth 07-25-16
28
US Monetary Policy
07-26-16
32
US Fiscal Policy
07-26-16
101
  US Public Policy
07-26-16
40

07-27-16
81
SPECIAL FOCUS POTENTIAL US RECESSION - UPDATED 07-27-16
71
Tri-Annual Sectional Summary   07-28-16
491
Executive Summary
07-28-16
99
Fully Indexed DB - GMTP 2016

Data File : Full Index (Full Down Loadable File Available on Request)

07-28-16
167mb

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

AUGUST 2016


AUGUST AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE UPCOMING REPORT & VIDEO  Sections of the Report Presently being released as they are completed. See the anticipated schedule belowq.
   

SEPTEMBER 2016

August 29th, 2016

 

SEPTEMBER 2016 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Positional Framework/ Institutional Monitors/ Situational Analysis
Risk: Signals Geo-Political Risks
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Risk Model
Tipping Points Update Tri-Annual Tipping Points
 
RISK & TIPPING POINTS Sectional Update

TBD

DB Index - GMTP SEPTEMBER 2015 (Available on Request - See Full Scribd Index Above) Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
 
Executive Brief
Executive Summary

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

SEPTEMBER 2016

August 24th, 2016

 

 


SEPTEMBER VIDEO

TBD

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the SEPTEMBER 2016 Update >> CLICK HERE

 
Archives - 2016  

JULY 2016

June 27th, 2016

 

 

 

THE NEXT CRISIS HAS BEGUN (Sectional Update - 972 Page .pdf)
The 2008 Setup

THE NEXT CRISIS HAS BEGUN (Summary Highlights - 55 Page .pdf)
The 2008 Setup

The British campaigns featured assertions and allegations tossed around with little regard to the factsBoth sides played to emotion, and the most common emotion played upon was fear.

The margin of victory startled even proponents of a British exit. The “Leave” campaign won by 52 percent to 48 percent. More than 17.4 million people voted in the referendum on Thursday to sever ties with the European Union, and about 16.1 million to remain in the bloc.

IMMIGRATION & EU'S FAILURE TO DEAL WITH THE REFUGEE PROBLEM

“Take control,” resonated with voters who feel that the government is failing to regulate the inflow of people from Europe and beyond.While leaders of the Leave campaign spoke earnestly about sovereignty and the supremacy of Parliament or in honeyed tones about “the bright sunlit uplands” of Britain’s future free of Brussels, it was anxiety about immigration — membership in the European Union means freedom of movement and labor throughout the bloc — that defined and probably swung the campaign.

IMMIGRATION PRESSURES ON SERVICES: With net migration to Britain of 330,000 people in 2015, more than half of them from the European Union, Mr. Cameron had no effective response to how he could limit the influx. And there was no question that while the immigrants contributed more to the economy and to tax receipts than they cost, parts of Britain felt that its national identity was under assault and that the influx was putting substantial pressure on schools, health care and housing.

TURKEY: The Leave side warned that remaining would produce uncontrolled immigration, crime and terrorism, with hordes pouring into Britain from Turkey, a country of 77 million Muslims that borders Syria and Iraq and hopes to join the European Union

EU POLITICAL SPILLAGE
But the damage won’t likely be isolated to the U.K., the world’s fifth-largest economy. “A Brexit victory will also signal victory for populism in Europe,” said Mr. Kirkegaard. “This referendum has unleashed fairly destabilizing elements into the European project.”

Anti-establishment and far-right parties in Europe, like the National Front of Marine Le Pen in France, Geert Wilders’s party in the Netherlands and the Alternative for Germany party will celebrate the outcome. The depth of anti-Europe sentiment could be a key factor in national elections scheduled next year in the other two most important countries of the European Union, France and Germany.

WHAT PROMPTED THE VOTE
Mr. Cameron felt pushed into announcing the referendum in 2013 by the anti-Europe wing of his own party, amplified by concerns among other Tories that U.K. Independence Party and Mr. Farage were cutting too sharply into the Conservative vote.

 

JULY 2016

June 27th, 2016

 

 

 

JULY 2016 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO REGIONAL UPDATEThere is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

EU

 

478

 

EU: THE EU IS BEGINNING TO COME APART AT THE PERIPHERAL

06-25-16
144
  UK: THE SHOCKING BREXIT REFERENDUM VOTE

06-25-16

86
  FRANCE: MARINE LE PEN PLEDGES FRENCH REFERENDUM 06-25-16
59
  ITALY: ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT "5 STAR" PARTY CAPTURES MAJORAL ELECTIONS 06-25-16
71
  GERMANY: GERMANY MAY BE BIGGER THREAT TO EU THAN BREXIT 06-25-16
67
  IBERIAN PENINSULA: NIRP IS KILLING US SAYS SPAIN'S 2ND LARGEST BANK
06-25-16
36
ASIAN Update

ASIA

 

   
  CHINA: LARGE FINANCIAL ACCOUNT OUTFLOWS A SERIOUS PROBLEM 06-26-16
123
  JAPAN: KURODA UNSURE WHETHER NIRP & MONETARY POLICY IS WORKING 06-26-16
140

EMERGING MARKETS: EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES REACT TO BREXIT

BRAZIL: THE BRAZILIAN STATE OF RIO (OLYMPICS) DECLARES " A STATE OF FINANCIAL DISASTER"

06-27-16
237
VIDEO
THE NEXT CRISIS HAS BEGUN - The 2008 Setup
06-22-16
JULY 2016 REPORT
06-27-16
972
Indexed DF - GMTP 2016
Data File: Fully Indexed Master - Available on Request. See this page or GMTP 'Peek Inside' for the complete index.
06-27-16
Executive Summary
06-27-16
55

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

JULY 2016

June 22nd, 2016

 

 


JULY VIDEO

THE NEXT CRISIS HAS BEGUN - The 2008 Set-Up

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the JULY 2016 Update >> CLICK HERE

JUNE 2016

May 30th, 2016

 

 

 

THE G-7 SENDAI DISCHORD (Sectional Update - 993 Page .pdf)
SHANGHAI ACCORD CRUMBLES WITH G-7 SENDAI DISCHORD

THE G-7 SENDAI DISCHORD (Summary Highlights - 60 Page .pdf)
SHANGHAI ACCORD CRUMBLES WITH G-7 SENDAI DISCHORD

Last month we saw that Risk overall and Geo-Political Risk in particular was rising significantly. This was also evident in this month’s Macro Economic Update areas.

CHINA’S HARD LANDING
There is little doubt China is facing a hard landing. An export led economy driven by capital inflows this strategy has come to a halt as the global economy slows and Chinese exports are crimped with Capital outflows increasing. This has resulted in Chinese FX Reserves being drawn down as China is forced to sell US Treasuries as well as creating pressures to devalue the Yuan in an attempt to attract foreign Capital Investment and stop capital flight. As a consequence we have witnessed four Yuan devaluation efforts in May by China, despite the Shanghai Accord in late February. There is simply too much non performing debt in China for this not to continue to result in a steady draw down of FX reserves which will place tremendous secular pressures on US government debt financing and global liquidity. 

The question that must be answered (which the chart below illustrates) is who will absorb the excess surplus (Production less Consumption) being created by China within the current global economic environment? An economic environment that can best be described as looming stagflation?

BREXIT
We highlighted the June UK BREXIT referendum in this month’s Geo-Economic Themes. Though the polls are close it is likely to be a NO vote but nevertheless the uncertainty will still be disruptive to the fragile global markets.

TTIP
We additionally highlighted the TTIP – Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership agreement being quietly slipped through EU legislation. The secrecy of the document and its content are extremely alarming. This “corporate grab” also has the potential to be extremely disruptive as confidence continues to erode in the developed economies with regard to political governance. The US primaries are only the beginning of what we can expect in the developed economies as their entitlement programs are more widely seen to be unfundable and unsustainable.

WHO WILL ABSORB CHINA'S SURPLUS (PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION)?

MAY 2016

May 30th, 2016

 

 

 

JUNE 2016 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Situational Analysis & Analysts Reports
05-28-16
98

Economic Indicators & Metrics

05-29-16
152
Central Bank Developments
05-29-16

306

Monthly Highlights
05-30-16
443
  China's Credit Crunch
05-30-16
64
  BREXIT Referendum
05-30-16
20
  TTIP - Trans-Atlantic Trade & Investment Partnership
05-30-16
8
THE SENDAI DISCHORD
05-30-16
993
DB Index - GMTP JUNE 2016
Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction - Available on Request - (Index Above)
05-30-16
219mb
Executive Summary
05-30-16
60

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

MAY 2016

May 25th, 2016

 

 


JUNE VIDEO

THE G-7 SENDAI DISCHORD

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the JUNE 2016 Update >> CLICK HERE

MAY 2016

April 25th, 2016

 

 

 

A FAILING SOCIAL CONTRACT (Sectional Update - 501 Page .pdf)
There is an Unwritten Contract between the Governing Class and those being Governed!

A FAILING SOCIAL CONTRACT (Summary Highlights - 119 Page .pdf)
There is an Unwritten Contract between the Governing Class and those being Governed!

Our GMTP Aggregated Risk Levels has risen again during this assessment period. Significantly contributing to the rise was a global deterioration in CDSs, TED Spread, Libor/OIS and overall weakening economic news.

The major movement seen in the Tipping Point rankings was the elevation of four Tipping Points to High Risk from Elevated Risk. These were TP’s associated with stock market levels, valuations and fundamentals. The following Tipping Points were all elevated:

#7 US Stock Market Valuations
#8 Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate
#9 Credit Contraction II
#10 US Dollar Strength

The IMF's mid year reports were all alarming, as well as were warnings from the OECD. There is a major shift in sentiment occurring.

Geo-Political Event Risk grew associated with the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This has caused a rupture in relations between the House of Saud and the Obama Administration. Brexit, the EU Refugee crisis and EU Italian Banks all added to the increasing number of event risk areas.

MAY 2016

April 25th, 2016

 

 

 

MAY 2016 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Positional Framework/ Institutional Monitors/ Situational Analysis
04-24-16
228
Risk: Signals Geo-Political Risks
04-25-16
221
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Risk Model
04-23-16
13
Tipping Points Update Tri-Annual Tipping Points
04-23-16
49
 
RISK & TIPPING POINTS Sectional Update

A FAILING SOCIAL CONTRACT

04-25-16
501
DB Index - GMTP MAY 2015 (Available on Request - See Full Scribd Index Above) Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
04-25-16
mb
 
Executive Summary
04-25-16
119

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

MAY 2016

April 20th, 2016

 

 


MAY VIDEO

A FAILING SOCIAL CONTRACT

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the MAY 2016 Update >> CLICK HERE

APRIL

March 28th, 2016

 

 

A 2016 US RECESSION? (Sectional Update - 400 Page .pdf)
Is The Global Slowdown Washing Ashore in the US?

A 2016 US RECESSION? (Summary Highlights - 93 Page .pdf)
Is The Global Slowdown Washing Ashore in the US?

The global slowdown in trade is rapidly washing ashore in America. In this month's in "Special Focus" we examine a great number of economic measures & metrics to consider whether the US in a recession or whether it soon will be. The facts are overwhelmingly convincing that the US is likely already in a recession and the only way of avoiding it getting worse is with immediate central bank actions. Even with significantly reduced gas pump prices, the escalating costs of healthcare (Obamacare has increased healthcare costs for most recipients), sky rocketing education costs and increasing costs of services have crimped US consumer consumption.

The Brooking institute recently convened a conference to consider what options the Federal Reserve had in its arsenal to combat a possible recession. Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke released two papers in concert which pointed towards NIRP and the long end of the yield curve as the most likely recourse for Federal Reserve policy initiatives. It seems that the Fed and their supporting 'think tanks' are already on the case. Expect both policy initiatives to unfold in early second half. Of course for this to happen the Fed must reverse course on its stated interest rate hike policy guidance. We will soon witness rapid backpedaling by Fed chairperson Janet Yellen to soon occur - watch for it. Corporate profits are falling at unprecedented rates and Q1 earnings will be a major disappointment. We expect financial markets to soon begin showing serious strain and investor concern by late summer or early summer.

The US economy is presently crippled by lack of investment stemming from reduced spending by a "gutted" middle class. The chart below illustrates that wages and salaries simply have not been keeping up with rising costs and eventually something had to give. This months extensive number of charts and graphs demonstrates this beyond any doubt, even to the most skeptical among us.

APRIL

March 28th, 2016

 

 

APRIL 2016 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
US Macro Overlay
03-26-16
22
Economic Indicators
03-27-16
19
Business Cycle - Analysis

03-27-16
96
  Business Cycle - Jobs
03-27-16
20
  Business Cycle - Sentiment 03-27-16
40
  Business Cycle - Consumption
03-27-16
10
  Business Cycle - Growth 03-27-16
20
US Monetary Policy
03-27-16
26
US Fiscal Policy
03-27-16
98
  US Public Policy
03-27-16
20

Situational Update -tbd

03-26-16
71
SPECIAL FOCUS POTENTIAL US RECESSION 03-26-16
58
Tri-Annual Sectional Summary   03-28-16
400
Executive Summary
03-28-16
93
Fully Indexed DB - GMTP 2016

Data File : Full Index (Full Down Loadable File Available on Request)

03-28-16
211mb

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

APRIL

 

 


APRIL AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

MARCH

February 29th, 2016

 

 

CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION COMING! (Sectional Update - 887 Page .pdf)
Too Many Cracks to Allow Much Further Delay

CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION COMING! (Summary Highlights - 50 Page .pdf)
Too Many Cracks to Allow Much Further Delay

Large cracks are appearing in the global economc fabric across the global. The seriousness of the problems are such that Central Bank Governors are being forced to speak out in a manner that they are not accustoimed to doing. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is out with a stark warning on the ramifications of slowing global growth as is past BOE Governor Mervyn King saying the Eurozone is on a doomed course , just as Brits contemplate Brexit which if it occurs according to the G20 communique, would destabilize the global economy. At the completion of this G20 meeting of finance minsters in Singapore the German Finance Minister went forcibly on record as saying that the current expansive monetary policies have laid the foundation for the next economic crisis. Even a Chinese Finance official said the World Economy now needs a Fiscal Jolt. These and other warnings giving earlier this quarter by the IMF, BIS, OECD and World Bank are clear about the state of the current global economy. It seems everyone is warning because they see no agreemnts being reached on any coordinated planned actions. Only a global corrdinated central bank reponse will delay the coming crisis. The actions won't stop it - only delay the inevitability further.

  • EU: Terrorism, an intractable refugee problem threatening the Schengen Agreement, slowing economies forcing NIRP and $9T in sovereign bonds trading at negative rates, an upcoming Brexit referendum, elections across the EU showing consistent anti government sentiment and now another banking crisis looming as fears of what is behind problems at Deutsche Bank un-nerve investors.
  • CHINA: The credit crisis only gets worse as capital flees, markets fall and trade continues to slow. It is hard to see any other result other than a hard landing as China sell reserves at an unprecendented rate to shore up a weakening Yuan currency.
  • JAPAN: Japan is clearly bankrupt and ABEnomic's desperate implementation of NIRP has the potential of destabilizing the Japanese financial system and possibly the reat of Asia. Tiem will tell but even BOJ Governor Kuroda seems unusally nervous.
  • EMERGING MARKETS: Slowing trade, excess debt denominated in a strong US$, widening current account deficits and weakening currencies as capital continues to exit the Emerging Markets in what can only be described as a serious situation. Brazil is in the worst depression since 1901.

When the US is seen as the beacon of economic growth and itself is looking down the gun barrel of what surely looks like a recession in 2016, it doesn't bode well for any miracles being on the horizon.

These are just some of the reasons everyone is warning!

 

MARCH

February 29th, 2016

 

MARCH 2016 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

EU

 

454

 

EU: Another Banking Crisis on the Horizon - Once Unorthodox Negative Rates Now Increasingly Orthodox - Refugee Problems threatens to Break Apart EU

02-28-16
140
  UK: Brexit - What Does it Mean Economically to the UK?

02-28-16

75
  FRANCE: Hollande says France in state of "Economic Emergency" as "State of Emergency" Enshrined into Constitution. 02-28-16
56
  ITALY: Potential for Italy to Fail And Drag Down The European Project 02-28-16
72
  GERMANY: German Finance Minister Schauble Warns of Coming Economic Crisis After G-20 Meeting 02-28-16
59
  IBERIAN PENINSULA: Left Bloc Makes Inroads on Socialists In Portugal 02-28-16
35
ASIAN Update

ASIA

 

   
  CHINA: Capital Outflows, Falling Foreign Direct Investment & Now Selling US Treasuries 02-27-16
101
  JAPAN: Abenomics Goes Full In With NIRP 02-27-16
126

EMERGING MARKETS: 2015-2017 Recession Worst Since 1901

BRAZIL: Recession from 2015-2017 to be the Deepest Since 1901 – Borders on Depression

02-27-16
212
VIDEO
CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION COMING!
02-24-16
MARCH 2016 REPORT
02-29-16
887
Indexed DF - GMTP 2015
Data File: Fully Indexed Master - Available on Request. See this page or GMTP 'Peek Inside' for the complete index.
02-29-16
262mb
Executive Summary
02-29-16
50

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

MARCH

February 24th, 2016

 


MARCH VIDEO

CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION COMING!

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Global, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the MARCH 2016 Update >> CLICK HERE

FEBRUARY

January 25th, 2016

 

 

UNCERTAINTY & APPREHENSIVE UNEASINESS (Sectional Update - 987 Page .pdf)
Sentiment Takes on a Tone of Worry

UNCERTAINTY & APPREHENSIVE UNEASINESS (Summary Highlights - 37 Page .pdf)
Sentiment Takes on a Tone of Worry

We have an incipient Global Bear Market underway with world equity market capitalization down over $16.8 Trillion. The technical charts suggest the completion of a 7.5 year cycle from the 2000 Dotcom highs to the 2007 GFC highs to today. With global debt at all time hights, a reversing credit cycle, global trade & Industrial Production collapsing, commodities reaching lows not seen in 40 years and oil below $30/bl - there is lots to worry about!

Central Bank Monetary Policy is now steadily coming under fire as many anaysts and bankers no longer believe QE and ZIRP are appropriate policy responses and are looking for new approaches which range from NIRP (Negative Nominal Interest Rate Policy), OMF (Overt Monetary Policy) to other untested experiments. With global liqiudity quickly evaporating the central bankers will soon be expected to respond, especially if global markets continue to deterioriate further.

Deflationary pressures coming out of China should not be underestimated, nor what is clearly a global oil price war now underway. The oil war was intially about Russian sanctions but now is taking on the complexity of a Saudi Arabia - Iran oil price war. Both giant middle east energy producers are aligned with opposing east-west powers (US versus Russia) and Syria has become the front for a proxy driven conflict (see pipeline map below).

The fall-out of plunging oil and commodity prices has shaken the HY (Junk) Bond Market, Distressed Debt Market and many of the US$ currency pegs. The Yuan, Hong Kong and Saudi currency pegs are exposed and may soon shock the financial markets similar to the Swiss Francs' capitulation just over a year ago.

We look for a recession scare in the US, driven by the slowing global trade, to force a Federal Reserve Policy reversal by mid 2016.

 

FEBRUARY

January 25th, 2016

 

FEBRUARY 2016 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Situational Analysis & Analysts Reports
01-23-16
157

Economic Indicators & Metrics

01-24-16
131
Central Bank Developments
01-24-16

301

Monthly Highlights
01-23-16
414
  PetroDollar - Coming Saudi-Iranian Oil / Gas War
01-23-16
130
  China's Credit Crunch
01-23-16
58
  Emerging Markets - A Debt Storm
01-23-16
96
  Currency Wars: Collapsing PEGS - Swiss Franc Was Only the Beginning
01-23-16
26
UNCERTAINTY & APPREHENSIVE UNEASINESS
01-25-16
987
DB Index - GMTP FEBRUARY 2016
Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction - Available on Request - (Index Above)
01-25-16
253MB
Executive Summary
01-25-16
35

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

FEBRUARY

January 20th, 2016

 


FEBRUARY VIDEO

UNCERTAINTY & APPREHENSIVE UNEASINESS

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the FEBRUARY 2016 Update >> CLICK HERE

JANUARY

January 16th, 2015

 

ANNUAL THESIS DOCUMENT

REPORT

Week Ending January 16th, 2016

 
Archives - 2015  
 

2015 REPORT CALENDAR

(Monthly E-Mailed Passwords Required)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
GLOBAL RISK &
RISK ASSESSMENT

TIPPING POINTS

RISK SIGNALS
RISK LEVELS
TIPPING POINT UPDATE
GLOBAL MACRO
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
MONETARY POLICIES
GEO-ECONOMIC THEMES
REGIONAL
EU UPDATE
ECONOMIES
ASIAN UPDATE - CHINA
  ASIAN UPDATE - JAPAN
EMERGING MARKETS UPDATE
US ECONOMY
GLOBAL MACRO OVERLAY
US INVESTMENT CYCLE

- ANALYSIS

- JOBS

- SENTIMENT

- CONSUMPTION

- GROWTH

  US MONETARY POLICY
US FISCAL POLICY
US PUBLIC POLICY
KEY DRIVERS - CATALYSTS
  SPECIAL FOCUS
  SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT
 
BRIEF    
nv = No Video , Links
VIDEOS
(See Subscriber LINK via E-Mail)
  ANNUAL THESIS
nv
  CRACKS IN THE FACADE
   
nv
  QE: A FAILED EXPERIMENT
  WORRIED BANKERS
  WAR ON CASH
   
nv
  THE VALUE VORTEX
LINK
  THE ECHO BOOM - Revisited                 LINK      
  THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS                   LINK    
                       
nv
 
  tbd                        

DECEMBER

November 30th, 2015

 

 

GLOBAL SLOWDOWN STEEPENING (Sectional Update - 446 Page .pdf)
Credit Cycle is Reacting

GLOBAL SLOWDOWN STEEPENING (Summary Highlights - 98 Page .pdf)
Credit Cycle is Reacting

ALL INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC MONITORING INSTITUTIONS ARE WARNING

Governments and central banks risk tipping the world into a fresh financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund has warned, as it called time on a corporate debt binge in the developing world. Emerging market companies have “over-borrowed” by $3 trillion in the last decade, reflecting a quadrupling of private sector debt between 2004 and 2014, found the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report.

This dangerous over-leveraging now threatens to unleash a wave of defaults that will imperil an already weak global economy, said stark findings from the IMF’s twice yearly report.

BIS: Quote or Title (Link)
BIS warns “unrealistic and dangerous to expect that monetary policy can cure all the global economy’s ills”. Warns that recent turmoil is not caused by isolated incidents:

– Debt levels are now so extreme they threaten the financial system,
– Ultra low rates have led to mal-investment and bigger boom/bust cycles,
– Emerging markets vulnerable to deeper crises,
– ECB easy money may juice markets for a while but reckoning is coming,
– BIS acknowledge that central banks rig markets,          
– Gold and silver protect against crises in financial system.

OECD:  OECD Chief Economist Catherine Mann said It's Time To "Temper The Frothiness" In Markets as the head of the OECD, Angel Gurría says spendthrift countries are leaving themselves exposed to next shock.

WB: World Bank's chief economist Kaushik Basu has warned “The world economy is looking so troubled that if the US goes in for a very quick move in the middle of this I feel it is going to affect countries quite badly."

IMF: IMF Fears $3 Trillion Credit Crunch; Lagarde Says "IMF Credibility at Stake", Calls for US to Give China More Voting Power. In its half-yearly update on the health of the world economy, the Washington-based fund predicted expansion of 3.1% in 2015, 0.2 points lower than it was expecting three months ago and the weakest performance since the trough of the downturn in 2009. The IMF is warning that the weak recovery in the west risks turning into near stagnation after cutting its global economic growth forecast for the fourth successive year.  “Despite considerable differences in country-specific outlooks, the new forecasts mark down expected near-term growth rates marginally, but nearly across the board. Moreover, downside risks to the world economy appear more pronounced than they did just a few months ago.”

DECEMBER

November 26th, 2015

 

DECEMBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Positional Framework/ Institutional Monitors/ Situational Analysis
11-29-15
207
Risk: Signals Geo-Political Risks
11-30-15
181
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Risk Model
11-28-15
13
Tipping Points Update Tri-Annual Tipping Points
11-28-15
51
 
RISK & TIPPING POINTS Sectional Update

GLOBAL SLOWING STEEPENING

11-30-15
446
DB Index - GMTP DECEMBER 2015 (Available on Request - See Full Scribd Index Above) Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
11-30-15
253mb
 
Executive Summary
11-30-15
98

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

DECEMBER 2015

 


DECEMBER VIDEO

GLOBAL SLOWING STEEPENING

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the AUGUST 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

NOVEMBER

October 26th, 2015

 

 

"QE FOR THE PEOPLE" (Sectional Update - 1029 Page .pdf)
Helicopter Money (OMF) Coiming During the Next Drawdown

"QE FOR THE PEOPLE" (Summary Highlights - 96 Page .pdf)
Helicopter Money (OMF) Coiming During the Next Drawdown

When a country consumes more than it produces for a sustained period of time, its Fiscal & Monetary choices will steadily decline. We would argue slowly at first, then faster. Correlated with US credit growth it is also exponential!

Because of this we believe the Federal Reserve and other developed economies’ central banks will soon be forced to roll out, or unleash in a coordinated fashion, a number of new policies to stem a potential global economic crisis.

QE IS NOT WORKING - So fully expect authorities to double-down and broaden their ill conceived monetary experiment!

In previous reports we have laid out that easy credit, quantitative easing and ZIRP initially brought demand forward. More importantly, this excess credit fostered a massive global oversupply. Quantitative Easing has stopped bringing demand forward and in fact is now working against this by reducing Pricing Power and unleashing powerful global deflationary pressures. More and more economists are recognizing this and writing about it.

The real possibility of an economic recession is looming. The central bankls will be forced to use new tools to fight this threat

NOVEMBER

October 26th, 2015

 

NOVEMBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
US Macro Overlay
10-21-15
51
Economic Indicators
 

Business Cycle - Analysis

10-21-15
30
  Business Cycle - Jobs
10-21-15
68
  Business Cycle - Sentiment 10-21-15
91
  Business Cycle - Consumption
10-22-15
62
  Business Cycle - Growth
10-22-15
64
Situational Update - Global Slow Down Forces Fed to Hold on Rate Increase
10-24-15
87
Situational Update - Here We Go Again With the Debt Ceiling Charade!
10-23-15
110
US Public Policy Situational Update - Russia & Iran Escalate Syrian Conflict
10-24-15
107

Situational Update -tbd

10-24-15
322
SPECIAL FOCUS

HELICOPTER MONEY TAKES FLIGHT IN THE US

10-25-15
29
SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT RECESSION RUMBLINGS 10-25-15
46
Tri-Annual Sectional Summary   10-26-15
1029
Executive Summary
10-26-15
96

Data File : Full Index (Full Down Loadable File Available on Request)

10-26-15
251MB

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

NOVEMBER 2015

 


NOVEMBER AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

OCTOBER
September 28th, 2015

 

 

THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS (Sectional Update - 966 Page .pdf)
Too Much Supply & Too Many Brands Combine with Too Much Credit

THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS (Summary Highlights - 55 Page .pdf)
Too Much Supply & Too Many Brands Combine with Too Much Credit

The world faces both broad global economic issues imbalances as well as increasingly dangerous regional problems. Whether these regional dilemmas are:

  • The Syrian refugee problem in Europe,
  • Russia and China placing military assets on Syrian soil,
  • The collapse in commodity prices from oil in the Middle East / Russia to basic materials in Emerging Economies,
  • The collapsing Chinese stock market and China's global export growth,
  • The lack of well paying jobs and growing youth unemployment in the developed economies,
  • The politcal corruption issues in Brazil or a Communist taking the reins of the UK Labor Party,

.. the world is a 'tinderbox' which any conflict can potentially ignite into a global fire.

This month we examine these regional headaches through a broad array of insightful charts.

OCTOBER

September 28th, 2015

 

OCTOBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

EU

 

397

  EU: Syrian Refugees a Hugh EU Political Problem 09/27/15
144
  ITALY: Italian Youth Unemployment plus Fleeing Refugees Hit Italy 09/27/15
52
  FRANCE: French Debt Bigger than Most Appreciate with Exposed Banks 09/27/15
50
  GERMANY: Refugee Problem at a Dangerous Tipping Point 09/27/15
45
  UK: Who is Jeremy Corbyn? Why is the UK Worried?

09/27/15

60
  IBERIAN PENINSULA: Recovery is an Illusion 09/27/15
42
ASIAN Update

ASIA

 

   
  CHINA: Yuan Devaluation Rattles FX World 09/26/15
224
  JAPAN: Nothing Seems to be Working As ABEnomics Loses Support! 09/26/15
159

BRAZIL: Economic Recession and Now Political Instability

09/26/15
194
VIDEO
THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS
 
OCTOBER 2015 REPORT
09/28/15
966
Data File: Fully Indexed Master
09/28/15
245mb
Executive Summary
09/28/15
55

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

OCTOBER 2015

September 23rd, 2015


OCTOBER VIDEO

THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Global, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the OCTOBER 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

SEPTEMBER
August 30th, 2015

 

 

ECHO BOOM - Revisited (Sectional Update - 916 Page .pdf)
Emerging Markets Feeling the Pain

ECHO BOOM - Revisited (Summary Highlights - 55 Page .pdf)
Emerging Markets Feeling the Pain

SEPTEMBER

August 30th, 2015

 

SEPTEMBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Situational Analysis & Analysts Reports
08-28-15
152

Economic Indicators & Metrics

08-28-15
124
Central Bank Developments
08-29-15

285

Monthly Highlights
08-30-15
360
  Emerging Markets Growth, Credit & Forex Problems - Fx Plummet
08-30-15
91
THE ECHO BOOM - Revisted
08-30-15
916
Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
08-31-15
143.5
Executive Summary
08-31-15
55

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

SEPTEMBER 2015

August 26th, 2015


SEPTEMBER VIDEO

THE ECHO BOOM - Revisited

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the AUGUST 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

AUGUST
July 25th, 2015

 

 

VALUE VORTEX (Sectional Update - 397 Page .pdf)
Why Value Is Getting Harder to Find

VALUE VORTEX (Summary Highlights - 74 Page .pdf)
Why Value Is Getting Harder to Find

Global Risk has clearly truned up according to the GMTP's Aggregate Risk Level Index. Widening EU CDS (Credit Default Spreads) along with a rising TED Spread suggest lenders are increasing nervous.

Global Event Risk in Greece and a Chinese Market Crash may be the obvious reason for the nervousness, but the GMTP sees it to be much broader based. Credit problems in Puerto Rico are shaking the Monoline Muni Insurers as it did when it preceeded the 2008 Financial Crisis, Slowing Global Trade and plunging Commodity prices are impacting Emerging Economies, Liqudity worries in the global bond markets have institutional inverstors worried and increasingly taking protective positions. Unfortunately, the list goes on.

Equity markets are clearly showing signs of rolling over. The central bankers can see all of this and we believe are prepared. When the markets finally react to the multipicity of clear distortions, expect the central bankers to unleash unprecedented new policies aimed at guaranteeing plunging collateral values. Starting with the September Quadruple Witch, expect heightened volatility & nervousness to shift to worry and possibly worse.

 

AUGUST
July 25th, 2015

 

AUGUST 2015 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Positional Framework/ Institutional Monitors/ Situational Analysis
07-24-15
178
Risk: Signals Geo-Political Risks
07-24-15
166
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Risk Model
07-24-15
12
Tipping Points Update Tri-Annual Tipping Points
07-24-15
47
 
RISK & TIPPING POINTS Sectional Update

THE VALUE VORTEX

07-25-15
397
DB Index - GMTP AUGUST 2015 Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
07-25-15
211 mb
 
Executive Summary
07-25-15
74

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

AUGUST 2015

July 22nd, 2015


AUGUST VIDEO

THE VALUE VORTEX

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the AUGUST 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

JULY
June 29th, 2015

 

 

PENSION POVERTY AHEAD (Sectional Update - 1067 Page .pdf)
Pensions are Underfunded and No Longer Risk Free

PENSION POVERTY AHEAD (Summary Highlights - 69 Page .pdf)
Pensions are Underfunded and No Longer Risk Free

We are becoming increasingly concerned with a turn in the US Business Cycle. The Surprise Index along with other indicators is suggesting that the business cycle has peaked and is headed lower. Small Business Sentiment shows slowing planned hiring as we additionally notice increased levels of announced layoffs and store closings. The US Retail sector is under increasing pressures (which we feature this month in a Special 162 page Supplement) as US Consumption feels the pains of reduced real income.

We are equally concerned about the US Muni Financial market as fiscal problems at the state and local level are becoming increasingly evident such as in Puerto Rico, Illinois and Chicago. Infrastructure spending has all but stopped to pay for debt servicing costs and public service employees pensions & benefits. Rating downgrades spell potentially serious financial problems for fiscal funding going forward. A slowing business cycle and turndown may be something many state and local governments will not be able to handle in 2015.

 

JULY
June 29th, 2015

 

JULY 2015 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
US Macro Overlay
06-24-15
45
US Investment Cycle
Economic Indicators
06-24-15
 
06-24-15
27
  Business Cycle - Jobs
06-28-15
52
  Business Cycle - Sentiment 06-25-15
82
  Business Cycle - Consumption
06-28-15
57
  Business Cycle - Growth
06-29-15
71
Situational Update - Fed is "Just Pushing On A String!"
06-27-15
75
Situational Update - US Now Has National Productivity & State and Local Fiscal Problems
06-28-15
100
US Public Policy Situational Update -The Sinister TPP Agreement
06-28-15
104

Situational Update - A Sub-Prime Economy

06-28-15
298
SPECIAL FOCUS

PENSION POVERTY AHEAD

06-25-15
12
SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT US RETAIL SALES - Big Problem 06-25-15
162
Tri-Annual Sectional Summary   06-30-15
1067
Executive Summary
06-30-15
69

Data File : Full Index (File Available on Request in future)

06-30-15
211 MB

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

JULY 2015


JULY AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

JUNE
MaY 26th, 2015

 

 

THE WAR ON CASH (Sectional Update - 828 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (82 Page Summary Highlights)

In the EU we see weak economic results across the Eurozone but with some positive exceptions. The problems in Greece are near a climax with Germany and the Troika. One way or the other the situation will be (temporarily) resolved. Problems in Greece are likely to soon be followed by problems in Italy, where a falling birth rate and migrant 'boat people' fleeing North Aftrica are putting addded stress on an already fragile economy.

Right behind Italy is Portugal and Spain. The recent Spanish election results and ascending socialist movement in Portugal signal further political leadership confusion. In France it is astounding to see the high number of voters who simply don't have any faith in socialist President Hollande, while in the UK the surpising election results show party platforms support either leaving the UK (Scotland) or leaving the EU.

In Asia we see an out of control chinese stock market as China signals monetary easing to stop increasing capital out flows. Japan's economic outlook continues to deteriorate with 43% of tax revenue now going to pay the interest on an ever expanding sovereign debt.

In the Emerging Markets all eyes are on Brazil as their Chinese BRICS partner had to come to their rescue with $50B in funding. The BRICS continue to increase their alliance, as Russia added $100B to the BRICS rival IMF Deveopment Fund.

JUNE
May 26th, 2015

 

JUNE 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

EU

05-25-15

317

  EU: WEAK BUT SOME POSITIVE ECONOMIC NEWS  
116
  ITALY: FALLING BIRTH RATE & "MIGRANT BOAT PEOPLE" MOUNTING PROBLEMS  
38
  FRANCE: ASTOUNDING HIGH # PEOPLE DON'T HAVE FAITH IN HOLLANDE  
47
  GERMANY: GERMANY VERSUS GREECE  
34
  UK: UNEXPECTED ELECTION RESULTS - SEEMS EVERYONE WANTS OUT!

 

39
  IBERIAN PENINSULA: SPANISH ELECTION & ASCENDING PORTUGAL SOCIALISTS SIGNAL TROUBLES  
36
ASIAN Update

ASIA

 

05-24-15  
  China: BEGINS EASING AS CAPITAL FLOWS OUT  
204
  Japan: 43% OF TAX REVENUE ON DEBT INTEREST  
147

BRAZIL: CHINA BAILS OUT BRAZIL WITH $50B
RUSSIA : RUSSIA FUNDS $100B RIVAL IMF FUND

05-23-15
166
VIDEO
THE WAR ON CASH
 
JUNE 2015 REPORT
05-26-15
828
Data File: Fully Indexed Master
05-26-15
205mb
Executive Summary
05-26-15
82

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

JUNE 2015

May 21st, 2015

JUNE AUDIO

WAR ON CASH

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the JUNE 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

APRIL
March 29th, 2015

 

 

WORRIED BANKERS (Sectional Update - 797 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (72 Page Summary Highlights)

In examining over 100 chart additions to this months GMTP report a number of developments stood out. First is the magnitude of global slowdown. It is pervasive and the US Macro indicators show it is sweeping over America. There is a strong probability we will talking Recession concerns by late 2015 unless the Fderaal Reserve reverses policy direction of tightening credit.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is the first clear signs that De-dollarization has begun. Sovereign leaders have rebelled with 57 countries becoming chart members of the AIIB which is targeted to raise $57T in capital investment. This capital will over time be denominated in other than US dollars. It may not have been a mutiny but it certainly was a vote of non-confidence in US leadership and its management of the global reerve currency.

Negative nominal interest rates and the rising "War on Cash" by bthe banks is a sign that the bankers are worried. Credit is being denied which is an early sign of cracks in the dike.

 

MAY
April 27th, 2015

MAY 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Situational Analysis & Analysts Reports
04/24/15
136

Economic Indicators & Metrics

04/26/15
95
Central Bank Developments
04/25/15

231

Monthly Highlights
04/25/15
324
  De-Dollarization
04/25/15
39
  Emerging & Frontier Markets - Capital Outflows
04/25/15
55
  Energy & the Petro$
04/25/15
109
WORRIED BANKERS
04/27/15
797
Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
04/27/15
132.6MB
Executive Summary
04/27/15
72

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

MAY

April 22nd, 2015


MAY AUDIO

WORRIED BANKERS

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk & Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the MAY 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

APRIL
March 29th, 2015

 

 

QE: A FAILED EXPERIMENT (Sectional Update - 336 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (63 Page Summary Highlights)

Our Aggregated Risk Index has confirmed it has reversed and is now increasing. It is additionally above the "5" threshold which is considered elevated. The Leading Economic Indicators (ECRI's LEI) and US Macro have deteriorated noticeably. We also note worsening activity in the Credit Markets and a TED spread increase. Caution is advised.

Our Tipping Point Assessment specifically shows an increase in the risk areas of the Bond Bubble, Risk Reversal and China's Hard Landing.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a clear blow to US foreign policy leadership. It must be seen as an major "Anit-US Movement" and the first clear signal of strong and growing global desire for "De-Dollarization". The US is seen to have abused its special privilege as the world's Reserve Currency for too long and other powers are unwilling to go along with US leadership much longer. As a direct result the US was forced to capitulate and apply for membership after being deserted by 33 global powers, including almost all G20 members.

The situations in Yemen, the Ukraine, Syria (ISIS) and the Iranian nuclear talks are all capable of de-stabilizing an already 'fragile'& tenuous financial markets condition. We are on the verge of potentially igniting a new "Colder War" through inept US Foreign Policy.

APRIL
March 29th, 2015

APRIL 2015 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Positional Framework/ Institutional Monitors/ Situational Analysis
03-28-15
153
Risk: Signals Geo-Political Risks
03-28-15
156
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Risk Model
03-28-15
11
Tipping Points Update Tri-Annual Tipping Points
03-27-15
23
 
RISK & TIPPING POINTS Sectional Update

QE: A FAILED EXPERIMENT!

03-29-15
336
DB Index - GMTP APRIL2015 Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
03-29-15
191.8mb
 
Executive Summary
03-29-15
63

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

APRIL

March 25th 2015


APRIL AUDIO

QE: A FAILED EXPERIMENT

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro & Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the APRIL 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

MARCH
February 28th, 2015

 

 

NIRP COMES TO AMERICA (Sectional Update - 924 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (29 Page Summary Highlights)

There is little doubt the global economy is slowing rapidly and the US economy is much weaker than the mainstream media and government portends it to be. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently warned world leaders:

"Global effective demand is extraordinarily weak - tantamount to the late stages of the great depression."

We must be looking at the same economic numbers as Greenspan because we don't believe he is exaggerating! Greenspan also states that:

"Capital investment is key to productivity growth"

Capital expenditure is in free fall in the US and has reached the point where 90% of the last quarterly earnings of the S&P 500 saw profits used for buybacks and dividends. This leaves a maximum of 10% available for CAPEX, with most of that being deployed offshore. This is now of crisis proportions for the short and intermediate viability of the US Economy. Unfortunately, few leaders like Greenspan are willing to speak out publically.

This months report exhaustively shows the seriousness of the US Economic situation and why there is a real possibility of recession. The Federal Reserve must be well aware privately of this possibility, which will force them to keep rate increases on hold for longer than currently anticiapted. Irrelevant of short term rate policy decisions the Federal Reserve must not allow interest rates to rise or the US government will be unable to pay the interest rate on its debt.

This is one of the reasons that QE has effectively been targeted as a debt liquidation program to buy back US Treasuries. The result is the interest paid on these US Treasuries by the Treasury department is returned to them by the Fed as the Fed's profit. This shell game removes interest payments in a stealth fashion. This slight of hand works as long as the debt is continuously rolled over, which the Treasury and Fed could do ad infinitum.

MARCH
February 28th, 2015

 

MARCH 2015 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
US Macro Overlay
02-26-15
42
US Investment Cycle
Economic Indicators
02-27-15
 
02-27-15
15
  Business Cycle - Jobs
02-27-15
38
  Business Cycle - Sentiment
02-27-15
63
  Business Cycle - Consumption
02-27-15
52
  Business Cycle - Growth
02-27-15
63
Situational Update - Taper Ignites Global Dollar Strength
02-26-15
76
Situational Update - Stealth Debt Cancellation Underway
02-26-15
116
US Public Policy Situational Update - State of the Union Direction & Priorities
02-27-15
103

Situational Update - A Sub-Prime Economy

02-28-15
287
SPECIAL FOCUS

YELLEN'S HUMPHREY HAWKINS TESTIMONY - Audit The Fed Becomes the Issue

02-26-15
33
SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT FLOWS - Liquidity, Credit and Debt 02-26-15
60
Tri-Annual Sectional Summary NIRP COMES TO AMERICA 02-28-15
924
Executive Summary
02-28-15
29

Data File : Full Index (File Available on Request in future)

02-28-15
193MB

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

MARCH 2015


MARCH AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

FEBRUARY
January 28th, 2015

 

 

CRACKS IN THE FACADE (Sectional Update - 770 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (56 Page Summary Highlights)

Our Global Regional analysis continues to show a deteriorating global economic picture with the anticipated significant macro surprises now occurrring. Stability and complacency are beginning to appear 'out of place'.

We have witnessed energy prices plummeting over the last 90 days to values below breakevens for many in the US Shale Oil Industry, the Canadian Oil Sands and OPEC / Non-OPEC countires. This is a major de-stabilizing event, with the Russian economy now clearly bordering on crisis. Like a tsunamic the waves are still washing ashore.

As if this wasn't sufficient, we then have the sudden abandonment of the Swiss Franc peg which came completely unexpectantly. This has sent another shock wave globally with the Danish, Hong Kong and Singapore pegs ppearing to be under pressure.

The world had barely adjusted to Japan going "all in" with ABE-nomics and QQE levels never before imagined. Then the EU announces a 1.1 Trillion Euro QE program as Greece elects an anti EU government on a platform of not accepting the bailouts and their terms.

Excess debt levels and a resulting global slowdown is at the root of most of these issues as economies resort to currency intervention with "beggar-thy-neighbor" policies. If China retaliates due to comptitive pressures on the Yuan the world may face yet another and even more serious Tsunami.

The financial markets in the US have been disconnected from fundamentals and driven by Federal Reserve liquidity injections for some time now. The risk is high with TAPER now complete.

How many more shocks can the world stand before something breaks ... somewhere??

FEBRUARY
January 28th, 2015

 

FEBRUARY 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

EU

 

280

  EU: DEFLATION IS REAL – A Major Problem for Banks & Government Debt 01-26-15
111
  ITALY: FALLS BACK INTO A TRIPLE-DIP RECESSION 01-26-15
34
  FRANCE: ECONOMIC MALAISE SPARKING POTENTIAL POLITICAL CRISIS 01-26-15
44
  GERMANY: GERMANY IN RECESSION 01-26-15
30
  UK: EXPECT RATE INCREASE BY SPRING 2015

01-26-15

31
  IBERIAN PENINSULA: LOW RATES MASK SERIOUS PERCULATING PROBLEMS 01-26-15
29
ASIAN Update

ASIA

 

   
  China: THE NEXT "PEG" TO FALL 01-27-15
216
  Japan: JAPAN GOES ALL IN 01-27-15
139
Russia: RUSSIA UNDER FINANCIAL SIEGE 01-28-15
141
VIDEO
CRACKS IN THE FACADE
01-23-15
FEBRUARY 2015 REPORT
01-28-15
770
Data File: Fully Indexed Master
01-28-15
183 mb
Executive Summary
01-28-15
56

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

FEBRUARY 2015

January 23rd, 2015

FEBRUARY AUDIO

CRACKS IN THE FACADE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the FEBRUARY 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

JANUARY
January 18th, 2015

JANUARY 2015 Edition Release Schedule

ANNUAL THESE RELEASE - JANUARY 18th, 2015

JANUARY

 


JANUARY - NO AUDIO

ANNUAL THESIS

There is no accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) for January.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the DECEMBER 2014 Update >> CLICK HERE

 
Archives - 2014  
DECEMBER
November 30th, 2014

 

 

CENTRAL BANKS LOSING CONTROL (Sectional Update - 543 Page .pdf)
Cracks Showing in Perceived Omnipotence

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (41 Page Summary Highlights)

Falling Energy prices are not getting the visibility they should. This is a major Geo-Economic development on a number of fronts:

  1. The global slowdown is now so evident that OPEC feels it can't reduce supply for fear of further stalling the global economy with their economies highly dependent on energy prices remaining above $80-$100/bl,
  2. The drop in WTI crude prices now makes the majority of US Shale oil wells un-profitable which will impact US energy supply,
  3. The rise in the US dollar has clearly impacted energy bought and sold in only US$ due to the Petro$$ agreements. The emerging economies which are dependent on energy exports are now caught with loan payments in a rising US$ and energy receipts in falling US$ value,
  4. Energy Corporations are a major component of equity markets and now have serious profit and capital exposures,
  5. Russia will be driven into a steepening recession and will be forced to escalate tensions with the west, in some fashion.

These and other associated developments have the potential of destabilizing an already tenuous global im-balance.

Global monetary direction has now reversed and easing has become the dominate theme with shocking central bank announcements in Japan, China and the EU. The US$ as a consequence has become the recipient of the expectations of loosening credit standards while the US stands pat (or at least is perceived to be holding the line on further Fed balance sheet expansion). A further strengthening US$ will add additional destabilizing pressures.

DECEMBER
November 30th, 2014

DECEMBER 2014 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Situational Analysis & Analysts Reports
11-28-14
109

Economic Indicators & Metrics

11-28-14
83
Central Bank Developments
11-29-14

123

Monthly Highlights
11-30-14
257
  Energy & the Petro$$$
11-30-14
102
  Gold Wars
11-30-14
14
  China's Credit Growth
11-30-14
40
CENTRAL BANKERS LOSING CONTROL
11-30-14
543
Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
11-30-14
166MB
Executive Summary
11-30-14
41

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

DECEMBER

November 25th, 2014


DECEMBER AUDIO

CENTRAL BANKERS LOSING CONTROL

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the DECEMBER 2014 Update >> CLICK HERE

NOVEMBER
October 28th, 2014

 

 

EVENT RISK SUDDENLY MATTERS (Sectional Update - 275 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (64 Page Summary Highlights)

Geo-Political Event Risk is beginning to dominate the Short to Intermediate Global Risk Assessment. Risks are associated with:

  1. The ISIS State,
  2. An escalating Ukraine-Russia, East-West Conflict,
  3. Growing intractable deflation issues in Europe and Japan,
  4. A Strengthening US$ based on an increasing global flight to perceived safety,
  5. Volatility in the Credit markets with Collateral and Liquidity once again showing worrying signs as the US TAPER programs comes to and end,
  6. The continuing threat of a hard landing in China and ASEAN based on slowing global growth,
  7. The destabilizing impact of falling oil and energy costs to energy exporters such as Russia, Brazil and Mexico
  8. A quickly weakening US economy as the only beacon of global strength..

Our proprietary Aggregated Risk Levels increased for the first time in two years, primarily due to increasing Credit Default Spreads (CDS), weakening US Housing and reversing Leading Economic Indicators.

The EBOLA pandemic threat and economic warnings from the IMF, World Bank, BIS and OECD all suggest the world is increasingly becoming more complex, interconnected and unstable. With 100M Unemployed, 300M young people neither working nor studying, 447M working poor and 600M new jobs required for population growth alone the recent G20 summit faced daunting problems with no solutions.

NOVEMBER
October 28th, 2014

NOVEMBER 2014 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Positional Framework/ Institutional Monitors/ Situational Analysis
10-26-14
157
Risk: Signals  
10-27-14
98
  Global Governance Risk
 
  Geo-Political Risks
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Risk Model
10-25-14
11
Tipping Points Update Tri-Annual Tipping Points
10-24-14
17
 
RISK & TIPPING POINTS Sectional Update

EVENT RISK SUDDENLY MATTERS

10-28-14
275
DB Index - GMTP NOVEMBER 2014 Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
10-28-14
166MB
 
Executive Summary
10-28-14
64

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

NOVEMBER

October 22nd, 2014


NOVEMBER AUDIO

EVENT RISK SUDDENLY MATTERS

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro & Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the NOVEMBER 2014 Update >> CLICK HERE

OCTOBER
September 28th, 2014

 

 

THE CRONY TRIBUTE SYSTEM (Sectional Update - 944 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (58 Page Summary Highlights)

When you consume more than you produce within a 71% Consumption Economy like the US, then savings are restricited. Additionally, with the US Government spending now approaching close to 40% of GDP, there is insufficient private savings for any investment, ever mind 'risk' investments. There can be no sustainable profits without productive investment of savings. Entitlement programs not only reduce investment but also reduced the cornerstones of the capitalist system: Innovation, Effort and Risk.

Because of this the US economy is steadily deteriorating and continues to be artifically supported by only government deficit spending and a historic growth in the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet. These measures are clearly failing to create sustainable economic growth. but are the only efforts being made as Public Policy is held ransom to failied political leadership and gridlock.

We continue to see the following major issues:

  1. US Housing market which has clearly begun rolling over,
  2. HELOC loan deliquency levels,
  3. Residual used car values which will eventually undermine the Shadow Banking System,
  4. Lower credit scores for new consumer debt plus Cov-lite & PIK Commercial loan acceleration,
  5. Accelerating deterioration in retail sales with crumbling discretionary spending,
  6. Continued weak US CAPEX spending by both small business and S&P 500,
  7. Negative net startup/small business formations,
  8. Chronic unemployment (with growth only in part time work within low paying sectors)
OCTOBER
September 28th, 2014

OCTOBER 2014 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
US Macro Overlay
09-24-14
36
Economic Indicators
09-28-14
149
Business Cycle - Analysis
09-28-14
6
Situational Update
09-27-14
235
Situational Update
09-25-14
85
US Public Policy Situational Update
09-25-14
73
Situational Update
09-26-14
157
SPECIAL FOCUS

RETAIL COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE: Weakness Everywhere!

09-27-14
115
SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT
THE CRONY TRIBUTE SYSTEM
09-28-14
26
Tri-Annual Sectional Summary THE CRONY TRIBUTE SYSTEM 09-28-14
944
Executive Summary
09-28-14
58

Data File : Full Index (File Available on Request in future)

09-28-14
160MB

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

OCTOBER 2014


OCTOBER AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

SEPTEMBER
August 25th, 2014

 

 

GROWING GLOBAL ECONOMIC PRESSURES (Sectional Update - 678 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (40 Page Summary Highlights)

Our Global Regional analysis clearly shows a deteriorating global economic picture.

Contrary to the signals from the trading exchange markets, the Global Macro shows the EU back in recession, Italy experiencing a triple-dip recession, Germany's ifo and ZEW deteriorating badly and the French situation forcing the Prime Minister to abruptly resign.

In Asia China the yuan continues to weaken as an indication of a slowing economy. Japan's economy is the most worrisome as it fast approaches financial instability from ABE-nomics and QQE.

The upcoming ASEAN Common Market launch is not getting the attention it deserves as a serious manufacturing cost threat to both China and Japan.

Our Macro Watch Liquidity Gauge analysis continues to suggest that 2nd Half 2014 will experience a liquidity problem, despite the Fed's recent Reverse Repo actions, unless the Federal Reserve halts the "TAPER" program schedule in Q3 / Q4 2014. Failure to do this may turn out to be the "straw which finally breaks the "camel's back" of the post Financial Crisis Global recovery.

We are presently long overdue for a market correction which will challenge the Fed to stop it from being too deep so as to effect overleveraged collateral values we have been warning of for sometime and the tenuous situation in the shadow banking system where treasury fails have become common.

This is not going to end well, but not before the Federal Reserve is forced into even more dramatic departures from proven Monetary Policy practices. Global Central Bankers are presently highly concerned, but have not yet reached the "panic reaction" stage we expect to see before this monetary experiment tragically ends.

The US economy is steadily deteriorating and continues to be artifically supported by only government deficit spending and a historic growth in the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet. These measures are clearly failing to create sustainable economic growth. Q2 is highly likely to turn out to be a negative growth quarter simialr to Q1 which has been revised lower to - 2.6%. Two consequtive negative quarters defines a recession. Markets will soon react negatively to this realization.

We continue to see major issues in the US Housing market which has begun rolling over, HELOC loan deliquency levels, residual used car values, lower credit scores for new debt, accerating deterioration in retail sales, crumbling capex, weak startup/small business growth and chronic unemployment which is only seeing growth in part time work within poor paying sectors.

SEPTEMBER
Augsut 25th, 2014

 

SEPTEMBER 2014 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

EU

 

248

  EU: Falling Into Recession - Again! Draghi Expected to Act - Possibly by September 08-23-14
98
  ITALY: In a Downward Spiral - A Triple Dip Recession 08-23-14
28
  FRANCE: Hollande Has Lost All Credibility at 17% Approval Rating - Prime Minister Resigns 08-23-14
38
  GERMANY: Looming German Recession. Ifo-ZEW Indicators All Rolling-Over 08-23-14
18
  UK: Expectations of a Rate Increase in February 2015 - Maybe as Early as November 2014

08-23-14

30
  IBERIAN PENINSULA: Low Bond Yields Mask Problems 08-23-14
28
ASIAN Update

ASIA

 

   
  China: A Growing Yuan Currency Concerns 08-24-14
195
  Japan: A Weakened Yen is Not Helping the Export nor Competitive Problems 08-24-14
123
EMERGING MARKETS Update
ASEAN: The ASEAN Common Market Is a Game Changer 08-24-14
118
VIDEO
12 WAYS QE IS DESTROYING CAPITALISM
08-21-14
SEPTEMBER 2014 REPORT
08-25-14
678
Data File: Fully Indexed Master
08-25-14
129mb
Executive Summary
08-25-14
40

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

SEPTEMBER 2014

August 21st, 2014

SEPTEMBER AUDIO

THE 12 WAYS QE IS DESTROYING CAPITALISM

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the SEPTEMBER 2014 Update >> CLICK HERE

AUGUST
July 25th, 2014

 

 

THE LOOMING M&A WAVE (Sectional Update - 463 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (38 Page Summary Highlights)

Our Macro Watch Liquidity Gauge analysis continues to suggest that 2nd Half 2014 will experience a liquidity problem, despite the Fed's recent Reverse Repo actions, unless the Federal Reserve halts the "TAPER" program schedule in Q3 / Q4 2014. Failure to do this may turn out to be the "straw which finally breaks the "camel's back" of the post Financial Crisis Global recovery.

We are presently long overdue for a market correction which will challenge the Fed to stop it from being too deep so as to effect overleveraged collateral values we have been warning of fopr sometime and the tenuous situation in the shadow banking system where treasury fails have become common.

This is not going to end well, but not before the Federal Reserve is forced into even more dramatic departures from proven Monetary Policy practices. Global Central Bankers are presently highly concerned, but have not yet reached the "panic reaction" stage we expect to see before this monetary experiment tragically ends.

The US economy is steadily deteriorating and continues to be artifically supported by only government deficit spending and a historic growth in the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet. These measures are clearly failing to create sustainable economic growth. Q2 is highly likely to turn out to be a negative growth quarter simialr to Q1 which has been revised lower to - 2.6%. Two consequtive negative quarters defines a recession. Markets will soon react negatively to this realization.

We continue to see major issues in the US Housing market which has begun rolling over, HELOC loan deliquency levels, residual used car values, lower credit scores for new debt, accerating deterioration in retail sales, crumbling capex, weak startup/small business growth and chronic unemployment which is only seeing growth in part time work within poor paying sectors.

AUGUST
July 25th, 2014

28

AUGUST 2014 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Situational Analysis & Analysts Reports
07-24-14
87

Economic Indicators & Metrics

07-24-14
76
Central Bank Developments
07-24-14

147

Monthly Highlights
157
  China's Credit Growth
07-25-14
32
  US$ Reserve Status & Eroding Influence
07-25-14
11
The Looming M&A Wave
07-25-14
463
Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
07-25-14
129MB
Executive Summary
07-25-14
38

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

AUGUST 2014

July 2nd, 2014

AUGUST AUDIO

THE LOOMING M&A WAVE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the AUGUST 2014 Update >> CLICK HERE

JULY
June 27th, 2014

 

 

LIQUIDITY is not WEALTH nor COLLATERAL (Sectional Update - 193 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (31 Page Summary Highlights)

The US economy is steadily deteriorating and continues to be artifically supported by only government deficit spending and a historic growth in the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet. These measures are clearly failing to create sustainable economic growth. Q2 is highly likely to turn out to be a negative growth quarter simialr to Q1 which has been revised lower to - 2.6%. Two consequtive negative quarters defines a recession. Markets will soon react negatively to this realization.

This is not going to end well, but not before the Federal Reserve is forced into even more dramatic departures from proven Monetary Policy practices. Global Central Bankers are presently highly concerned, but have not yet reached the "panic reaction" stage we expect to see before this monetary experiment tragically ends.

We are presently overdue for a market correction which will challenge the Fed to stop it from being too deep so as to effect overleveraged collateral values.

We continue to see major issues in the US Housing market which has begun rolling over, HELOC loan deliquency levels, residual used car values, lower credit scores for new debt, accerating deterioration in retail sales, crumbling capex, weak startup/small business growth and chronic unemployment which is only seeing growth in part time work within poor paying sectors.

Our Macro Watch Liquidity Gauge analysis suggests that 2nd Half 2014 will experience a liquidity problem unless the Federal Reserve halts the "TAPER" program schedule in Q3 / Q4 2014. Failure to do this may turn out to be the "straw which finally broke the "camel's back" of the US Economies Post Financial Crisis Recovery!

JULY
June 28th, 2014

 

JULY 2014 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Positional Framework/ Institutional Monitors/ Situational Analysis
06-26-14
87
Risk: Signals  
77
  Global Governance Risk
06-27-14
 
  Geo-Political Risks
06-27-14
  Geo-Economic Risks
06-27-14
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Risk Model
06-27-14
13
Tipping Points Update Tri-Annual Tipping Points
06-27-14
24
 
RISK & TIPPING POINTS Sectional Update

LIQUIDITY is not WEALTH nor COLLATERAL

06-28-14
193
DB Index - GMTP JULY 2014 Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
06-28-14
126MB
 
Executive Summary
06-28-14
31

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

JULY 2014

June 24th, 2014

JULY AUDIO

LIQUIDITY is not WEALTH nor COLLATERAL

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro & Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the JULY 2014 Update >> CLICK HERE

JUNE
May 23rd , 2014

 

 

THE MYSTERIOUS BUYER OF US TREASURIES (Sectional Update - 729 Page .pdf)
Who Is Really Behind the Belgium Buying and Why?

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (52 Page Summary Highlights)

Our Liquidity Gauge analysis suggests that 2nd Half 2014 will experience a liquidity problem unless the Federal Reserve halts the "TAPER" program schedule in Q3 / Q4 2014. Failure to do this may turn out to be the "straw which broke the "camel's back" of the US Economy!

We continue to see major issues in the US Housing market which has begun rolling over, HELOC loan deliquency levels, residual used car values, lower credit scores for new debt, accerating deterioration in retail sales, crumbling capex, weak startup/small business growth and chronic unemployment which is only seeing growth in part time work within poor paying sectors.

The US economy is steadily deteriorating and continues to be artifically supported, at barely positive GDP levels, by government deficit spending and a historic growth in the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet.

This is not going to end well but not before the Federal Reserve is forced into even more dramatic departures from proven Monetary Policy practices. We are overdue for a market correction which will challenge the Fed to not allow it be too deep as to effect overleveraged collateral values.

JUNE
May 23rd , 2014

 

JUNE 2014 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
US Macro Overlay
05/20/14
24
Economic Indicators
05/20/14
11
Business Cycle - Analysis
Situational Update
05/21/14
176
Situational Update
05/22/14
72
US Public Policy Situational Update
05/22/14
70
Situational Update
05/23/14
126
SPECIAL FOCUS

RETAIL COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE: Funding Problems

05/23/14
63
  FINANCIAL STRESS: Increasing Despite Increases in Net Worth 05/23/14
6
  US CREDIT: Cracks Showing in US Credit 05/23/14
3
  US RECESSION: On the Horizon 05/23/14
25
  MUNI MONSTER : A Failure of Public Policy
05/23/14
22
  A RETIREMENT CRISIS: Now Beginning to Take Hold
05/23/14
13
SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT

MYSTERIOUS BUYER OF US TREASURIES: Who is Really Behind the Belgium Buying?

05/23/14
14
Tri-Annual Sectional Summary THE MYSTERIOUS BUYER OF US TREASURIES
05/24/14

729

Executive Summary
05/24/14
52

Data File : Full Index (File Available on Request in future)

05/24/14
124 MB

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

JUNE

JUNE AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

MAY
April 27th , 2014

 

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION GOES GLOBAL (Sectional Update - 593 Page .pdf)
Accelerating Stealth Policy & Regulatory Responses

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (13 Page Summary Highlights)

Events across Asia and specifically within China and Japan suggest we are experiencing the early signs of a Credit Crisis and Asian Currency instabiity. The Chinese Yuan has fallen steadily since the beginning of the year on slowing economic news. This in-turn is causing margin problems in the overleveraged corporate sector with banks refusing shipping lines of credit as they are unsure of the credit quality behind the imported raw materials. Endless unregulated financial games through the Chinese Shadow Banking have new highly leveraged derivative structures such as "Target Redemption Forwards" leaving lenders and investors jittery. The chances of contagion are high.

Japan's ABE-nomics policy is beginning to gain traction in increasing inflation but is doing nothing for a rapidly faltering economy with growing trade and current account deficits. If Japan does succeed in achieving its goal of 2% inflation within 2 years, then Japan's tax revenues are highly likely to be insufficent to pay the elevated interest rates. Its a "Catch 22" with everyone hoping for an economic miracle!

Overlay the Asian problems with Europes fight to stop the strong Euro from drawing the EU into a 7th quarterly recession (with one exit) and highly elevated gloabl equity prices and we have all the signs of a potentially destabilizing crisis ahead.

Our Liquidity Gauge analysis suggests that 2nd Half 2014 will experience a liquidity problem unless the Federal Reserve halts the "TAPER" program schedule in Q3 / Q4 2014. This may be the "straw the breaks the camel's back"!

MAY
April 27th , 2014

 

MAY 2014 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

EU

04-27-14

213

  EU: ECB & Draghi Will Soon Take Action Against Crippling Euro Levels 04-27-14
83
  ITALY: Bond Yields Fall to Record Lows 04-27-14
25
  FRANCE: Hollande in Trouble 04-27-14
32
  GERMANY: Merkel Dancing to Putin's Tune 04-27-14
19
  UK: May be First Developed Country to Raise Rates (Following Next Election)

04-27-14

24
  IBERIAN PENINSULA: New Mortgage Loans Down 33% Y-o-Y 04-27-14
29
ASIAN Update

ASIA

 

   
  China: Problems in Credit, Housing & Shadow Banking 04-25-14
166
  Japan: Financial Repression Being Desperately Advanced in Japan on Multiple ABEnomic Fronts 04-25-14
114
A Dead Cat Bounce? 04-26-14
111
VIDEO
04-23-14
MAY 2014 REPORT
04-27-14
593
Data File: Fully Indexed Master
04-27-14
80.2MB
Executive Summary
04-27-14
13

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

MAY
April 23rd , 2014

MAY AUDIO

FINANCIAL REPRESSION GOES GLOBAL

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Global Risk , Macro Analysis, and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the MAY 2014 Update >> CLICK HERE

APRIL
March 27th , 2014

 

 

THE RUSSIAN PIVOT (Sectional Update - 430 Page .pdf)
A Crimean Conflict and a Petrodollar Battle; But a Reserve Currency War!

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (42 Page Summary Highlights)

Its our current view that the following will soon occur from a Macro perspective:

  • ECB WILL ANNOUNCE A NEW POLICY DIRECTION - QE Finally Comes to the EU

    i. Likely announcement at Upcoming April 3rd Policy Meeting,

    ii. Likely will involve the buying of US Treasuries.

  • RUSSIA WILL ANNOUNCE A MAJOR ENERGY DEAL WITH CHINA - The Petrodollar Cracks

    i. Likely announcement during Putin’s May State visit to China,

    ii. Likely to be transacted in non US Currency.

    iii. This will be the first salvo by BRIICS against the Petrodollar and US Dollar Reserve status

     

APRIL
March 28th , 2014

 

APRIL 2014 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

Global Macro: Outlook & Indicators

03-25-14
77

Economic Indicators & Metrics

03-25-14
69
Global Macro: Monetary Policy
Central Bank Developments
03-27-14

147

Monthly Highlights
147
  Food Prices & Shortage - Potential Disruption
03-26-14
18
  Emerging Markets - Unfolding Crisis in 2014
03-26-14
40
  Energy - Pricing Pressures
03-26-14
13
THE RUSSIAN PIVOT
03-27-14
430
Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
03-27-14
83MB
Executive Summary
03-28-14
42

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

APRIL
March 24th , 2014

APRIL AUDIO

THE RUSSIAN PIVOT

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro Analysis, regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the APRIL 2014 Update >> CLICK HERE

MARCH
February 28th , 2014

 

 

THE TAPER TANTRUM TEN (Sectional Update - 193 Page .pdf)
The Fragile Five and Forgotten Ten

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (39 Page Summary Highlights)

This month our cycle called for updating all the year beginning Global Risk Monitors (WEF, IMF, World Bank, OECD) and it was telling to observe that "Inequality" has risen to a major levels of global concern. It was a dominant theme of world leaders at Davos. This is a theme which our abstraction process has been highlighting for 3 years and our work suggests will lead to increasing levels of global social unrest and conflict. There are serious economic and financial market impacts as a result of this turmoil.

The Geo-Political problems most evident in the emerging markets (the Fragile 5 and Forgotten 5) are clear evidence of this economic and social turmoil as the world now enters an era of sub 3% growth. This growth level has traditionally reflected a US recession but since the US now is a less dominant trading nation it is suggestive that in fact the slowing global economies may drag the US into a recession (unless US Taper policy is soon altered). We expect the EU to soon adopt an EU version of Quantitative Easing (QE), likely similar to the UK's.

The Geo-Economic issues are highlighted this month by the Ukraine. This area is strategic to the Pertrodollar strategy and needs to be watched carefully. The natural gas and oil flows from Russia all transit the Ukraine and potential disruptions in the region will destabilize EU energy flows and escalate pressures on a "Tran-Syria" pipeline alternative.

MARCH
February 28th , 2014

 

MARCH 2014 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Situational Analysis / Monitors
02/26/14
68
Risk: Signals  
  Geo-Political Risks - Taper Tantrum Ten
02/27/14
47
  Geo-Economic Risks
02/27/14
52
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Risk Model
02/27/14
12
Tipping Points Update Quarterly Tipping Points Update
02/27/14
24
 
RISK & TIPPING POINTS Sectional Update

THE TAPER TANTRUM TEN

02/28/14
193
DB Index - GMTP MARCH 2014 Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
02/28/14
83 MB
 
Executive Summary
02/28/14
39

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

MARCH
February 24th , 2014

MARCH AUDIO

THE TAPER TANTRUM TEN

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro & Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the MARCH 2014 Update >> CLICK HERE

FEBRUARY
January 27th , 2014

 

 

THE SHADOW BANKING RE-EMERGENCE (Sectional Update - 658 Page .pdf)
New Acronyms, Same Game

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (38 Page Summary Highlights)

We believe the unresolved banking crisis in the EU will soon raise its head again. This time it will be with more vengeance. The catalyst for the crisis is in the CEE (Central & Eastern Europe).

This month’s coverage of the US Economy is extensive as was December's on Emerging Markets. This is because we see the global problems starting in the peripheral nations (as it did in the EU) and working towards the core. We are seeing this in the BRICS, the Fragile Five and fully expect to see it soon in the CEE. All of these nations are the recipients of the massive printing of money and credit creation by the Currency Cartel (US, EU, Japan & UK) and China. The peripheral nations of the world are simply unable to contain the financial pressures this is igniting.

This months US Economic focus details the broad basewd problems in the US with over 658 pages of research articles, tablesn and charts. The Special Supplement on the Shadow Banking System is particularly important since we see Duration and Collateral problems causing shocks to this $72 Trillion stealth activity. Additionally, a Special Focus on Retail Commercial Real Estate is included because we see a major problem looming here which will compouind the Shadow Banking problems associated with CLO's, CMBS and REITs.

FEBRUARY
January 27th , 2014

 

FEBRUARY2014 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
US Macro Overlay
01/24/14
18
Economic Indicators
01/24/14
7
Business Cycle - Analysis
01/24/14
106
Situational Update
01/24/14
167
  Taper, Yeeln & Volker Rule
01/24/14
Situational Update
01/25/14
67
US Public Policy Situational Update
01/24/14
59
Situational Update
01/26/14
102
SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT

SHADOW BANKING : $72t & Bigger than Regulated Banks

01/26/14
67
       
SPECIAL FOCUS

US RECESSION: On the Horizon

01/25/14
25
  MUNI MONSTER : A Failure of Public Policy
01/25/14
6
  A RETIREMENT CRISIS: Now Beginning to Take Hold
01/25/14
12
  RETAIL COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE: Funding Problems
01/25/14
23
Tri-Annual Sectional Summary THE SHADOW BANKING RE-EMERGENCE
01/27/14
658
Executive Summary
01/27/14
38

Data File : Full Index (File Available on Request in future)

01/27/14
102 MB

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

FEBRUARY 2014

FEBRUARY AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

JANUARY
January 15th, 2013

JANUARY 2014

ANNUAL THESIS REPORT

THE GLOBALIZATION TRAP

JANUARY


JANUARY AUDIO

There is NO accompaning AUDIO for January as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page)

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the DECEMBER 2013 Update >> CLICK HERE

 
Archives - 2013  
DECEMBER
November 26th, 2013

 

 

POLITICAL PARALYSIS & FAILURE (Sectional Update - 501 Page .pdf)
A Global Governance Failure

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (14 Page Summary Highlights)

We believe the unresolved banking crisis in the EU will soon raise its head again. This time it will be with more vengeance. The catalyst for the crisis is in the CEE (Central & Eastern Europe).

This month’s coverage of the Emerging Markets is extensive. This is because we see the global problems starting in the peripheral nations (as it did in the EU) and working towards the core. We are seeing this in the BRICS, the Fragile Five and fully expect to see it soon in the CEE. All of these nations are the recipients of the massive printing of money and credit creation by the Currency Cartel (US, EU, Japan & UK) and China. The peripheral nations of the world are simply unable to contain the financial pressures this is igniting.

DECEMBER
November 26th, 2013

 

DECEMBER 2013 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

EU

 

206

  EUROSIS & 'MEDICAL' CHARTS 11-26-13
65
  ITALY: Berlusconi Convicted But Still Influential - Longest Recession on Record 11-26-13
23
  FRANCE: A Major Train Wreck Ahead with Hapless President at the Helm 11-26-13
32
  GERMANY: Merkel Short of Majority but Still Maintains Power. 11-26-13
15
  UK: Carney Takes the Helm of BOE with Forward Guidance & Stern Warnings

11-26-13

20
  IBERIAN PENINSULA: Non-Performing Loans Everywhere! 11-26-13
26
ASIAN Update

ASIA

 

   
  China: Shadow Banking & Credit Expansion 11-25-13
117
  Japan: ABE-nomics Showing Early Signs of Failure 11-25-13
84
Fragile 5, BRICS, Asia, Turkey, Middle East & Venezuela 11-24-13
100
VIDEO
POLITICAL PARALYSIS & FAILURE
11-23-13
DECEMBER 2013 REPORT
11-26-13
501
Data File: Fully Indexed Master
11-26-13
90 MB
Executive Summary
11-26-13
14

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

DECEMBER

November 23rd, 2013

DECEMBER AUDIO

POLITICAL PARALYSIS & FAILURE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Global Risk, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the DECEMBER 2013 Update >> CLICK HERE

NOVEMBER
October 26th, 2013

 

 

The ECHO BOOM (Sectional Update - 346 Page .pdf)
Emerging Markets In Crisis

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (61 Page Summary Highlights)

The Washington wrangling in temporarily over but will soon take center stage again. The debt and budget problems are only getting larger, more politically polarized and intractable. The global economies are quickly tiring of being held hostage to US Monetary policy and the exported inflation it seems committed to accelerating. The G20 members took the US to task at the recent G20 summit and clearly Obama has got the message. Whether he has the power to do much about the path the US is now headed on is the real question.

We can expect major increases in liqudity and central bank balance sheets going forward. A globally coordinated "ABE-Nomics" like program appears the only solutuion to sustaining credit growth at sufficient levels not to trigger a global recession. The global economy is presently at stall speed.

NOVEMBER
October 26th, 2013

 

NOVEMBER 2013 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

Global Macro: Outlook & Indicators

10/25/13
68

Economic Indicators & Metrics

10/24/13
68
Global Macro: Monetary Policy
Central Bank Developments
10/25/13

106

Monthly Highlights
112
  Emerging Markets - Unfolding Crisis in 2014
10/26/13
THE ECHO BOOM
10/26/13
346
Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
10/26/13
87.4MB
Executive Summary
10/26/13
61

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

NOVEMBER

October 23rd, 2013

NOVEMBER AUDIO

THE ECHO BOOM

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Global Risk, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the NOVEMBER 2013 Update >> CLICK HERE

OCTOBER
September 26th, 2013

 

 

The TAPER CAPER (Sectional Update - 180 Page .pdf)
Fed Caught in a Box

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (40 Page Summary Highlights)

"TAPER" is now priced into the market to begin in December with the first reduction in monthly purchases of $15 billion ($10Bn cut in TSY purchases, $5BN cut in MBS), eventually tapering to nothing in Q3 2014 when the Dealers believe QE formally ends. A Budget impase is also priced into the market with the expectations that another CR will be passed that funds the government and raises the debt ceiling for a short time — likely six months or less. The market has also priced in the likelyhood of Janet Yellen will be taking over from Ben Bernanke as the new Fed Reserve Chairman. What is not priced in is a looming US recession and the possibility of a corresponding US debt downgrade.

After six quarters of recession in Europe, which accounts for 25% of global GDP, it has now seriously impacted Asia and the Emerging Markets. As the slowing washed ashore across Asia and the Emerging markets, which accounts for 50% of global GDP, it had begun destabilizing currencies, interest rates, capital flows, credit and export trade. Eerily similar to the 1997sian crisis. This contagion will eventually infect the US as aprt of an "Echo Boom", which at best could be described presently at economic stall speed. At worse, with proper statisitics it could be concluded the US is already in a recession. Reality will soon be forced to surface and bring the much anticpated cover for another round of globally coordinated central bank liquidity injections.

OCTOBER
September 26th, 2013

 

OCTOBER 2013 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Situational Analysis / Monitors
09/24/13
51
Risk: Signals Global Risk Signals
09/25/13
101
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Risk Model
09/26/13
12
Tipping Points Update Quarterly Tipping Points Update
09/26/13
23
 
Sectional Summary

THE CAPER TAPER

09/26/13
180
DB Index - GMTP OCTOBER 2013 Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
09/26/13
70MB
 
Executive Summary
09/26/13
40

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

OCTOBER

September 23rd, 2013

OCTOBER AUDIO

THE CAPER TAPER

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro Analysis, regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the OCTOBER 2013 Update >> CLICK HERE

SEPTEMBER
August 23rd , 2013

 

 

"TAPER" & A NEW FED CHAIR (Sectional Update - 383 Page .pdf)
Fed in a Box as the Recovery Stalls and a US Recession Looms

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (31 Page Summary Highlights)

"TAPER" is now priced into the market with the expectations of it beginning in September with the first reduction in monthly purchases of $15 billion ($10Bn cut in TSY purchases, $5BN cut in MBS), eventually tapering to nothing in June 2014 when the Dealers believe QE formally ends. A Budget impase is also priced into the market with the expectations that another CR will be passed that funds the government and raises the debt ceiling for a short time — likely six months or less. The market has also priced in the likelyhood of either Larry Summers or Janet Yellenwill be taking over from Ben Bernanke as the new Fed Reserve Chairman. What is not priced in is a looming US recession and the possibility of a corresponding US debt downgrade.

After six quarters of recession in Europe, which accounts for 25% of global GDP, it has now seriously impacted Asia and the Emerging Markets. As the slowing washed ashore across Asia and the Emerging markets, which accounts for 50% of global GDP, it is destabilizing currencies, interest rates, capital flows, credit and export trade. Eerily similar to the 1997sian crisis. This contagion will soon infect the US, which at best could be described presently at economic stall speed. At worse, with proper statisitics it could be concluded the US is already in a recession. Reality will soon be forced to surface and bring the much anticpated cover for another round of globally coordinated central bank liquidity injections.

DRIVER$

We need to see substantial improvement in the following areas to belief we have any real sustainable economic improvement in the US economy:

    • EMPLOYMENT NEEDS TO IMPROVE
      • CAPEX Spending needs to stop falling and rise,
      • Small Business Optimism needs to stop falling and start rising,
      • Demographic Hiring Shift needs to be materially overcome,
    • DISPOSABLE INCOME NEEDS TO IMPROVE,
    • REAL HOME VALUES NEED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT,
    • COMMERICAL REAL ESTATE NEEDS TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING

SEPTEMBER
August 23rd , 2013

 

SEPTEMBER 2013 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
US Macro Overlay
08/22/13
18
Economic Indicators
08/22/13
11
Business Cycle - Analysis
08/22/13
62
Situational Update
08/22/13
79
  Taper & A New Fed Chief
08/22/13
Situational Update
08/23/13
49
US Public Policy Situational Update
08/22/13
34
Situational Update
08/23/13
85
SPECIAL FOCUS

RECESSION: A Looming US Recession

08/22/13
22
 

VIDEO: Is the US in a RECESSION? (MAcro Analytics)

VIDEO: US Recession (LONGWave)

AUDIO: USA is Headed For Recession (FSN)

   
  DETROIT: A Failure of Public Policy to Address Structural Issues
08/22/13
5
  RETIREMENT CRISIS: Now Beginning to Take Hold
08/22/13
12
  STATISITICS: More Fixes To GDP and CPI
08/22/13
10
"TAPER" & a New Fed Chief
08/25/13
383
Executive Summary
08/25/13
31
Fully Indexed DB - GMTP 2013
Data File : Full Index
08/25/13
82.9MB

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

 

SEPTEMBER AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the MARCH 2013 Update >> CLICK HERE

AUGUST
July 23rd , 2013

 

FULL REPORT

The GLOBALIZATION TRAP (Full Indexed Abstraction Data File - 1165 Page .pdf)
Slowing Growth Triggering the Trap

The GLOBALIZATION TRAP (Sectional Update - 400 Page .pdf)
Slowing Growth Triggering the Trap

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (18 Page Summary Highlights)

The EU and Developed economies have given up on "Austerity" as a public policy option and therefore are left with only one option, dramatically accelerating central bank monetary expansion. Expect OPMF (Overt Permanent Monetary Funding) to replace the soon to be disgraced QE policy as the frightened global financial markets and the orchestrated Bond Scare raises public demand for aggressive central bank action.

The OECD, IMF, World Bank and BIS are all warning of looming issues due to an over dependence on Monetary Policy versus the heavy lifting required by Fiscal & Public Policy to elleviate structure problems. Politicans can be counted on to do nothing until it is too late and then do exactly the wrong thing.

The smart money is well aware of this consistent pattern, as it prepares for a massive Debt for Equity Swap the likes of which the world has never seen before. The wealth producing assets of the Emerging Markets and 'Com-doll' countries are now on sale as $Trillions of cash is looking for homes.

DRIVER$

  1. YEN Crosses with Euro & USD
  2. US 5 Year Treasury Yield (As US debt now has maturity of 5.4 years at 1.88%)
  3. HY and IG Spreads
  4. Gold & Silver Support Levels (Gold < $1200/Oz and Silver <$19/Oz) based on a gold production cash cost of $1104/oz

AUGUST
July 23rd , 2013

 

AUGUST 2013 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

EU

07/21/13

189

  EUROSIS & 'MEDICAL' CHARTS 07/21/13
63
  ITALY: Budget Failure on NO Growth
07/21/13
22
  FRANCE: Hollande Going Down for the Count
07/21/13
27
  GERMANY: EU in the Hands of Election
07/21/13
12
  UK: New BOE Governor & More Printing Ahead
07/21/13
18
  IBERIAN PENINSULA: Going Critical
07/21/13
25

ASIA

 

07/21/13
213
  China: Credit Tightening Panic Averted - Temporarily?
07/21/13
89
  Japan: ABE-nomics a Globally Destabilizing Policy
07/21/13
69
Singapore, South Korea, Turkey, Australia
07/21/13
58
THE GLOBALIZATION TRAP
07/22/13
400
Data File: Fully Indexed Master
07/23/13
1165
Executive Summary
07/22/13
18

- Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

AUGUST
July 18th, 2013

AUGUST AUDIO

THE GLOBALIZATION TRAP

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Global Risk Assessment, Macro Analysis and US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the AUGUST 2013 Update >> CLICK HERE

JULY
June 25th, 2013

 

FULL REPORT

The BOND SCARE (Full Indexed Abstraction Data File - 1047 Page .pdf)
"TAPER" - The Needed Central Bank Cover

The BOND SCARE (Sectional Update - 214 Page .pdf)
"TAPER" - The Needed Central Bank Cover

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (16 Page Summary Highlights)

JULY
June 25th, 2013

 

JULY 2013 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

Global Macro: Outlook & Indicators

06/24/13
58

Economic Metrics

06/24/13
53
Global Macro: Monetary Policy
Central Bank Developments
06/24/13

61

Monthly Highlights
50
  Global Bond Scare
06/25/13
10
  China Liquidity Tightening
06/25/13
20
  Currency Wars to Rate Wars
06/25/13
13
Cyber Threats -SS Complex
06/25/13
3
BOND SCARE
06/25/13
214
Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
06/25/13
1047
Executive Brief
06/25/13
16

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

JULY
June 19th, 2013

JULY AUDIO

July Audio available Wednesday June 19th, 2013

There will be an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Global Risk Assessment and US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the JULY 2013 Update >> CLICK HERE

JUNE
May 27th, 2013

 

FULL REPORT

Mr GLOBAL & the GREAT ROTATION (Full Indexed DB Report - 953 Page .pdf)

Mr GLOBAL & the GREAT ROTATION (Sectional Update - 151 Page .pdf)
The Era of a 70% US Consumption Economy Are Over

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (38 Page Summary Highlights)

JUNE
May 27th, 2013

 

JUNE 2013 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Situational Analysis / Monitors
05/24/13
59
Risk: Signals Global Risk Signals
05/25/13
31
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Risk Model
05/26/13
12
Macro Driver$ Global Macro Driver$
05/25/13
34
Tipping Points Update Quarterly Tipping Points Update
05/27/13
24
 
Quarterly Sectional Summary

Mr Global & the GREAT ROTATION

05/27/13
151
DB Index - GMTP JUNE 2013 Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
05/27/13
953
 
Executive Summary
05/27/13
38

 

JUNE
May 22nd, 2013

JUNE AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for an accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page)

Mr Global & GOLD

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the normal monthly Updates >> CLICK HERE

MAY
April 25th, 2013

 

FULL REPORT

PEAK CONSUMPTION (Full Indexed DB Report - 943 Page .pdf)

PEAK CONSUMPTION (Sectional Update - 392 Page .pdf)
The Era of a 70% US Consumption Economy Are Over

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (30 Page Summary Highlights)

MAY
April 25th, 2013

 

MAY 2013 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
US Macro Overlay
04/21/13
18
 

Prosperity at Risk

04/21/13
3
Economic Indicators
04/23/13
7
Sector Rotation
04/23/13
4
Business Cycle - Analysis
04/23/13
66
Situational Update
04/22/13
89
Situational Update
04/21/13
76
US Public Policy Situational Update
04/24/13
43
Situational Update
04/24/13
67
SPECIAL FEATURES AUDIO: The Limits of Global Growth
04/18/13
  Peak Consumption Economy
04/24/13
5
  Transition: Capital Contrained to Innovation Constrained
04/24/13
1
  Student Loan Crisis in America
04/24/13
14
PEAK CONSUMPTION
04/25/13
392
Executive Summary
04/25/13
30
Report: Full Index
04/25/13
943
       

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

MAY
April 18th, 2013

MAY AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page)

SPECIAL BONUS

We have produced a bonus video this month

THE LIMITS OF GLOBAL GROWTH

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the normal monthly Updates >> CLICK HERE

APRIL
March 25th, 2013

 

FULL REPORT

A GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FAILURE (Full Report - 911 Page .pdf)

A GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FAILURE (Sectional Update - 294 Page .pdf)
Failing Monetary, Fiscal and Public Policy

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (15 Page Summary Highlights)  

APRIL
March 25th, 2013

 

APRIL 2013 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

QUARTERLY: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

EU

03/24/13

148

  CYPRUS:Contract Law & Property Right Violations
03/22/13
26
  ITALY: Election Sends Message
03/22/13
20
  FRANCE: Quits on Austerity
03/23/13
23
  GERMANY: Growing Anti EU Sentiment
03/23/13
9
  UK: Yet Another Recession Looms
03/23/13
16

ASIA

 

03/24/13
148
  China: Renminbi Hubs Being Created
03/24/13
54
  Japan: The New Currency War Front
03/24/13
57
  Emerging Markets - BRICS Bank & Forex Pool Being Created
03/24/13
37
A GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FAILURE
03/25/13
294
Report: Full Index
03/25/13
911
Executive Summary
03/25/13
15

- Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

APRIL
March 19th, 2013

APRIL AUDIO

April Audio available Tuesday March 19th, 2013

There will be an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Global Risk Assessment and US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the AUGUST 2012 Update >> CLICK HERE

MARCH
February 22nd, 2013

 

FULL REPORT

DESTABILIZING CURRENCY WARS (Full Report - 779 Page .pdf)

DESTABILIZING CURRENCY WARS (Sectional Update - 148 Page .pdf)
A Stalled Global Economy is Exposed to Destabilizing Currency Wars

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (21 Page Summary Highlights)

MARCH
February 22nd, 2013

 

MARCH 2013 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Situational Analysis & Analysts Reports
02/20/13
32

Economic Metrics

02/20/13
34
Central Bank Developments
02/21/13

43

Geo-Political Themes
Monthly Highlights
  Currency Wars
02/21/13
13
Cyber Threats
02/22/13
30
DESTABILIZING CURRENCY WARS
02/22/13
148
Report: Full Index
02/22/13
779
Executive Summary
02/22/13
21

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

MARCH
February 18th, 2013

MARCH AUDIO

March Audio available Monday February 18th, 2013

There will be an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Global Risk Assessment and US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the MARCH 2013 Update >> CLICK HERE

FEBRUARY
January 26th, 2013

 

FULL REPORT

CRISIS OF TRUST (Full Report - 648 Page .pdf)

CRISIS OF TRUST (Sectional Update - 156 Page .pdf)
The US$ as the Global Reserve Currency Has Officially Entered It's Twilight Era

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (18 Page Summary Highlights)

FEBRUARY
January 26th, 2013

 

FEBRUARY 2013 Edition Release Schedule

QUARTERLY: RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Situational Analysis / Monitors
01/26/13
63
Global Risk Signals
01/26/13
30
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Risk Model
01/26/13
15
Macro Driver$ Global Macro Driver$
01/23/13
23
Tipping Points Update Quarterly Tipping Points Update
01/25/13
25
 
Quarterly Sectional Summary CRISIS OF TRUST
01/26/13
156
Full Index - GMTP February 2013 Report: Full Index
01/27/13
648
 
Executive Summary
01/27/13
18

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

FEBRUARY
January 24th, 2013

FEBRUARY AUDIO

February Audio available Thursday January 24th, 2013

There will be an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering the Global Macro and US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the FEBRUARY 2013 Update >> CLICK HERE

January
January 14th, 2013

 

JANUARY Edition Release -January 14th, 2013

ANNUAL THESIS

There is no January GMTP. The Annual Thesis will be issued.

See the Subscription Page for our Annual process.

 
Archives - 2012  

DECEMBER
November 24th, 2012

FULL REPORT

FISCAL CLIFF: US Capitulates on "RISK FREE" (Full Report - 604 Page .pdf)

FISCAL CLIFF: US Capitulates on "RISK FREE" (Sectional Update - 296 Page .pdf)
The US$ as the Global Reserve Currency Has Officially Entered It's Twilight Era

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (32 Page Summary Highlights)

DECEMBER
November 24th, 2012

 

DECEMBER Edition Release Schedule

QUARTERLY: US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
US Macro Overlay
11/20/12
17
 

Prosperity at Risk

11/20/12
4
Economic Indicators
11/22/12
9
Sector Rotation
11/22/12
4
Business Cycle - Analysis
11/22/12
53
Situational Update
11/22/12
38
Situational Update
11/21/12
73
1- Employment
11/23/12
23
2- Disposable Income
11/23/12
9
3- US Residential Real Estate
11/23/12
25
4- US Commercial Real Estate
11/23/12
6
SPECIAL FEATURE US Capitulates on "Risk Free"
11/24/12
12
  US Public Policy Problems
11/20/12
33
Quarterly Sectional Summary
11/24/12
296
Executive Brief
11/24/12
32
Fully Index - GMTP 2012
11/24/12
604
       

There will NO accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

 

NO DECEMBER EDITION AUDIO

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the normal monthly Update >> CLICK HERE

NOVEMBER
October 22nd, 2012

FULL REPORT

RACE TO DEBASE (Full Report - 498 Page .pdf)

RACE TO DEBASE (Sectional Update - 195 Page .pdf)
Any Geo-Political, Economic or Financial Event Could Trigger a Market Clearing Fall

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (19 Page Summary Highlights)

NOVEMBER
October 22nd, 2012

NOVEMBER Edition Release Schedule

NOTE: November Edition is a GLOBAL MACRO (Regional) Update.

There will be an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering the Risk Assessment and US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

QUARTERLY: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

Global Only

10/22/12
67

EU Only

10/22/12

80

Asia Only

 

10/21/12
53
  China
10/21/12
33
  Japan
10/21/12
8
  Emerging Markets
10/21/12
12
RACE TO DEBASE
10/23/12
195
Report: Full Index
10/23/12
498
Executive Summary
10/23/12
19

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

 

NOVEMBER
October 18th, 2012

NOVEMBER AUDIO

CURRENCY WARS: Race to Debase
An Update on GLOBAL RISK - 29 Minutes with 35 Slides

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the NOVEMBER 2012 Update >> CLICK HERE

OCTOBER
September 25th, 2012

FULL REPORT

UNLIMITED & UNCAPPED (Full Report - 423 Page .pdf)

UNLIMITED & UNCAPPED (Sectional Update - 116 Page .pdf)
Any Geo-Political, Economic or Financial Event Could Trigger a Market Clearing Fall

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (34 Page CHART Summary of Quarterly Changes)

OCTOBER
September 25th, 2012

OCTOBER Edition

NOTE: October edition is a RISK & TIPPING POINTS Update.

There will be an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering the Global Macro and US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

QUARTERLY: RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Situational Analysis
09/25/12
43
Global Risk Signals
09/25/12
14
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Model
09/24/12
15
Macro Driver$ Global Macro Driver$
09/23/12
33
Tipping Points Update Quarterly Tipping Points Update
09/24/12
23
Quarterly Sectional Summary UNLIMITED & UNCAPPED
09/25/12
116
Full Index - GMTP Oct. 2012 Report: Full Index
09/25/12
423
Executive Summary
09/25/12
34
OCTOBER
September 19th, 2012

OCTOBER AUDIO

UNLIMITED: QE/OMT
An Update on the GLOBAL MACRO & US ECONOMY - 43 Minutes with 21 Slides

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the OCTOBER 2012Update >> CLICK HERE

SEPTEMBER
August 20th, 2012

FULL REPORT

STALL SPEED (Full Report - 441 Page .pdf)

STALL SPEED (Sectional Update - 221 Page .pdf)
Any Geo-Political, Economic or Financial Event Could Trigger a Market Clearing Fall

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (25 Page CHART Summary of Quarterly Changes)

SEPTEMBER
August 20th, 2012

 

SEPTEMBER Edition

NOTE: September Edition is a US ECONOMY Update.

There will be NO accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

QUARTERLY: US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
US Macro Overlay
08/16/12
15
Economic Indicators
08/18/12
10
08/17/12
6
Business Cycle - Analysis
08/18/12
46
Situational Update
08/18/12
34
Situational Update
08/20/12
40
1- Employment
08/20/12
10
2- Disposable Income
08/20/12
6
3- US Residential Real Estate
08/20/12
21
4- US Commercial Real Estate
08/21/12
6
STALL SPEED
08/20/12
221
Executive Summary
08/20/12
26
Report: Full Index
08/20/12
441
       
SEPTEMBER
August 20th, 2012

SPECIAL SEPTEMBER FOCUS

CONSUMPTION GROWTH: A 70% Consumption Economy May Be the Limit! (Report - 34 Page .pdf)

Updated Since Preliminary Posting


 

There will be NO AUDIO for September due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update.

As per the Quarterly Subscription Schedule (see Subscribers Schedule )

AUGUST
July 19th, 2012

FULL REPORT

MONETARY MALPRACTICE (Full Quarterly Report - 370 Page .pdf)
Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Issue Warnings

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (25 Page CHART Summary of Quarterly Changes)

August
July 19th, 2012

 

AUGUST Edition

NOTE: August Edition is a GLOBAL MACRO (Regional) Update.

There will be an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering the Risk Assessment and US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

QUARTERLY: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Global Macro Update
07/20/12
121

Global Only

07/19/12
42

EU Only

07/19/12

55

Asia Only

07/20/12
29
 

AUGUST AUDIO

MONETARY MALPRACTICE
An Update on the US ECONOMY & GLOBAL RISK - 42 Minutes with 27 Slides

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the normal monthly Update >> CLICK HERE

July
June 19th, 2012

FULL REPORT

COMING UNGLUED (Full Quarterly Report - 328 Page .pdf)
Market Fragility and Credit Market risk indicators are now at post-Lehman levels.

 

 

JULY (MID-YEAR) Edition Release Schedule

NOTE: July edition is a RISK & TIPPING POINTS Update.

There will be an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering the Global Macro and US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

QUARTERLY: RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

This is an Expanded Mid-Year Report and will be spread out over a full one week period.

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Situational Analysis
06/21/12
60
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Model
06/22/12
14
Macro Driver$ Global Macro Driver$
06/20/12
17
Tipping Points Update Quarterly Tipping Points Update
06/20/12
22
Quarterly Sectional Summary COMING UNGLUED
06/23/12
104
Full Indexed - GMTP July 2012 Report: Full Index
06/23/12
328
Executive Summary
06/23/12
22
 

JULY AUDIO

COMING UNGLUED
An Update on the GLOBAL MACRO & US ECONOMY - 43 Minutes with 30 Slides

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the JULY 2012 Update >> CLICK HERE

JUNE

May 21st, 2012

FULL REPORT

GROSS DOMESTIC DISTORTIONS (Full Quarterly Report - 283 Page .pdf)
GDP does not stand for "Gross Distortional Propaganda", despite government actions

 

QUARTERLY: US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Global Macro Overlay US Macro Overlay
05/16/12
9
US Investment Cycle Economic Indicators
05/18/12
42
  Situational Analysis
05/19/12
US Monetary Policy Who's Turn, New Tools
05/20/12
23
US Fiscal Policy Situational Update
05/20/12
15
Key Drivers - Catalysts of Change 1- Employment
05/21/12
46
  2- Disposable Income
  3- US Residential Real Estate
  4- Commercial Real Estate
Full Indexed - GMTP June 2012 Report: Full Index
05/21/12
283
 

SPECIAL JUNE FOCUS

ECONOMIC GROWTH - Gross Domestic Distortions (Full Report - 29 Page .pdf)
False Growth - Falacies of Reported GDP

  There was NO AUDIO for June, as per the Quarterly Subscription Schedule (see Subscribers Schedule )

May

April 23rd, 2012

FULL REPORT

EUROSIS (Full Quarterly Report - 228 Page .pdf)
The EU is Contagious. Signs of Contagion

 

 

QUARTERLY: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC, SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Global Macro Update
04/23/12
79

EU Only

04/23/12

37

Asia Only

04/23/12
22
 

MAY AUDIO

INDICATORS- Economic Risk
An Update on Risk & US Economy - 23 Minutes with 22 Slides

Go to AUDIO alternatives and slides area BELOW as part of the MAY 2012 Update >> CLICK

   

April

March 19th, 2012

FULL REPORT

ELEVATED RISK (Full Quarterly Report - 189 Page .pdf)
All Macro Analytics & Technical Analysis Indicators Signalling Warnings Signs

 

 

QUARTERLY: GLOBAL RISKS, SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Global Macro Sectional Update
03/19/12
6
Q2 2012 Update
03/19/12

39

Q2 2012 Update
03/19/12
58
Q2 2012 Update
03/19/12
4
 

APRIL AUDIO

Elevated Risk - Audio
An Update on the Global Macro- 30 Minutes with 35 Slides

Go to AUDIO alternatives and slides area BELOW as part of the APRIL 2012 Update >> CLICK

   

March

February 20th, 2012

A Campaign Budget (Full Report - 167 Page .pdf)
All key decisions and budget cuts pushed out past election day

 

 

US Economic Update - 96 Page .pdf
Quarterly Sectional Update

 

SPECIAL MARCH FOCUS

US Monetary & Fiscal Policy Update - 27 Page .pdf)
Special Focus

   
February
January 23rd, 2012

SPECIAL YEAR BEGINNING REPORT

FULL UPDATE

Tidal Wave of EU Downgrades (All Sections - 164 Page .pdf)
More than Just Cracks Emerging in EU Veneer

 

 

Tidal Wave of EU Downgrades (21 Page .pdf - EU Update)
More than Just Cracks Emerging in EU Veneer

 

 

 

 

Tidal Wave of EU Downgrades (16 Page .pdf - Asian Update)

 

 

 

 

Tidal Wave of EU Downgrades (40 Page .pdf - Tipping Point Update)

 

 

 

Global Macro: Risk Assessment (20 Page .pdf ADVANCE Report)
Global Financial Risks Are Presently At Elevated Levels
[PW: 0212risk]

 

 

   
January
January 14th, 2012

January Edition: Annual Thesis - Monday January 16th, 2012.

 

 
 
Archives - 2011  
December
November 21st, 2011

Global Uncertainty: Fear of Contagion (140 Page .pdf FULL Report)
Fear is Washing Over the Global Markets

Global Uncertainty: Fear of Contagion - US Economic Update (92 Page .pdf US Economy UPDATE Report)
Fear is Washing Over the Global Markets

Global Uncertainty: Fear of Contagion - US Economic Brief (33 Page .pdf)
Fear is Washing Over the Global Markets

November
October 17th, 2011

EU Crisis: A Frantic Four Weeks (115 Page .pdf FULL Report)
Will the EU and G20 Deliver the "Bazooka" in time?

EU Crisis: A Frantic Four Weeks - Europe / Asia / Emerging Markets (22 Page .pdf Global Macro UPDATE Report)
Will the EU and G20 Deliver the "Bazooka" in time?

October
September 30th, 2011

Euro Experiment: Test Results Are In (118 Page .pdf FULL Report)
Is the Federal Reserve Already in the Process of Implementing a Stealth QE III?

Euro Experiment: Test Results Are In (25 Page .pdf US UPDATE Report)
Is the Federal Reserve Already in the Process of Implementing a Stealth QE III?

September
August 24th, 2011

Stealth QE III (114 Page .pdf FULL Report)
Is the Federal Reserve Already in the Process of Implementing a Stealth QE III?

Stealth QE III (71 Page .pdf US UPDATE Report)
Is the Federal Reserve Already in the Process of Implementing a Stealth QE III?

August
July 22nd, 2011

OPEN ACCESS

Global Debt Crisis Escalates (117 Page .pdf Report)
We need viable solutions - Not political solutions to practical problems!

SPECIAL EXPANDED MID YEAR EDITION

July
June 23rd, 2011
European Summer, American Autumn (86 Page .pdf Report)
The Arab Spring has set the Stage for the European Summer
June
May 22nd, 2011
Euro Experiment Results: "F" (89 Page .pdf Report)
The Separation of Monetary & Fiscal Policy in a Single Currency Regime Fails
May
April 16th, 2011
Flight to Hard Currencies Begins ( 60 Page .pdf Report)
The Symbiotic Strategy Unwind is Triggered
 
OPEN ACCESS TO ALL REPORTS BELOW
April
Mar 19, 2021
'Event' Risk - Geo-Political or Natural Disaster
All Artificial Economies are Exposed to Sudden Event Risks
March
Mar 5. 2011
Flash Points
Conflict & Social Tension Were the Predictable Outcomes of Q.E.
February
Feb 5, 2011 
The "Risk On" Lemming Stampede
Fed's Q2 and POMO Guarantees Stock Market Advance?
 
 
Archives - 2010  
December
Dec 20, 2021
EU Contagion II
Now Ireland, Next Portugal, Spain and then Italy
November
Nov 5, 2021
An Historic "Policy Framing" Week
Election :: QEII :: Earnings :: Q3 GDP :: Labopr Debacle
October
Oct 3, 2021
Misguided US Economic Policy
Washington simply has it wrong and they now know it!
September
Sep 4, 2021
America Has a Structural Problem
August
Aug 1, 2021
Quantitative Easing - Round II
July
Jul 1, 2021
Preserve & Protect
June
May 31, 2021
The Flash Crash Omen
May
Apr 30, 2021
It Feels Like 1987
April
Mar 31, 2021
Lent, Spent or Bent
March
Feb 28, 2021
"Risk Off" Correction
February
Jan 31, 2022
Rolling Top -- Sequential Failures
 

 

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