AMERICA MUST CHOOSE THE ROAD AHEAD (Sectional Update - 491 Page .pdf)
An Election for the Sole of America

AMERICA MUST CHOOSE THE ROAD AHEAD (Summary Highlights - 99 Page .pdf)
An Election for the Sole of America

There is a US Recession coming and potentially a Global Recession.

The Central Bankers are acutely aware of this and are tring to head it off at the pass with extraordinary liquidity infusions. The combined injections are now $180B per month which is easily double QE3 was. This is a level never seen before and if Japan follows with a rumored 28T in YEN liqudity there can be little doubt the global G4 central bankers have pushed the panic button!

As expected the liquidity is temporarily buoying the financial markets.

What can only be described as chaos within the current US Presidental cycle is adding to the instability associated with Brexit, gloabl terrorist attacks and Geo-Political events (Turkey) and conficts (South China Sea and Korea).

QUICK REFERENCE INDEX

AUGUST 2016 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

AUGUST AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

SEPTEMBER 2016 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

SEPTEMBER VIDEO

TBD

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the SEPTEMBER 2016 Update >> CLICK HERE

THE NEXT CRISIS HAS BEGUN (Sectional Update - 972 Page .pdf)
The 2008 Setup

THE NEXT CRISIS HAS BEGUN (Summary Highlights - 55 Page .pdf)
The 2008 Setup

The British campaigns featured assertions and allegations tossed around with little regard to the facts. Both sides played to emotion, and the most common emotion played upon was fear.

The margin of victory startled even proponents of a British exit. The “Leave” campaign won by 52 percent to 48 percent. More than 17.4 million people voted in the referendum on Thursday to sever ties with the European Union, and about 16.1 million to remain in the bloc.

IMMIGRATION & EU'S FAILURE TO DEAL WITH THE REFUGEE PROBLEM

“Take control,” resonated with voters who feel that the government is failing to regulate the inflow of people from Europe and beyond.While leaders of the Leave campaign spoke earnestly about sovereignty and the supremacy of Parliament or in honeyed tones about “the bright sunlit uplands” of Britain’s future free of Brussels, it was anxiety about immigration — membership in the European Union means freedom of movement and labor throughout the bloc — that defined and probably swung the campaign.

IMMIGRATION PRESSURES ON SERVICES: With net migration to Britain of 330,000 people in 2015, more than half of them from the European Union, Mr. Cameron had no effective response to how he could limit the influx. And there was no question that while the immigrants contributed more to the economy and to tax receipts than they cost, parts of Britain felt that its national identity was under assault and that the influx was putting substantial pressure on schools, health care and housing.

TURKEY: The Leave side warned that remaining would produce uncontrolled immigration, crime and terrorism, with hordes pouring into Britain from Turkey, a country of 77 million Muslims that borders Syria and Iraq and hopes to join the European Union

EU POLITICAL SPILLAGE
But the damage won’t likely be isolated to the U.K., the world’s fifth-largest economy. “A Brexit victory will also signal victory for populism in Europe,” said Mr. Kirkegaard. “This referendum has unleashed fairly destabilizing elements into the European project.”

Anti-establishment and far-right parties in Europe, like the National Front of Marine Le Pen in France, Geert Wilders’s party in the Netherlands and the Alternative for Germany party will celebrate the outcome. The depth of anti-Europe sentiment could be a key factor in national elections scheduled next year in the other two most important countries of the European Union, France and Germany.

WHAT PROMPTED THE VOTE
Mr. Cameron felt pushed into announcing the referendum in 2013 by the anti-Europe wing of his own party, amplified by concerns among other Tories that U.K. Independence Party and Mr. Farage were cutting too sharply into the Conservative vote.

JULY 2016 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO REGIONAL UPDATEThere is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

JULY VIDEO

THE NEXT CRISIS HAS BEGUN - The 2008 Set-Up

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the JULY 2016 Update >> CLICK HERE

THE G-7 SENDAI DISCHORD (Sectional Update - 993 Page .pdf)
SHANGHAI ACCORD CRUMBLES WITH G-7 SENDAI DISCHORD

THE G-7 SENDAI DISCHORD (Summary Highlights - 60 Page .pdf)
SHANGHAI ACCORD CRUMBLES WITH G-7 SENDAI DISCHORD

Last month we saw that Risk overall and Geo-Political Risk in particular was rising significantly. This was also evident in this month’s Macro Economic Update areas.

CHINA’S HARD LANDING
There is little doubt China is facing a hard landing. An export led economy driven by capital inflows this strategy has come to a halt as the global economy slows and Chinese exports are crimped with Capital outflows increasing. This has resulted in Chinese FX Reserves being drawn down as China is forced to sell US Treasuries as well as creating pressures to devalue the Yuan in an attempt to attract foreign Capital Investment and stop capital flight. As a consequence we have witnessed four Yuan devaluation efforts in May by China, despite the Shanghai Accord in late February. There is simply too much non performing debt in China for this not to continue to result in a steady draw down of FX reserves which will place tremendous secular pressures on US government debt financing and global liquidity. 

The question that must be answered (which the chart below illustrates) is who will absorb the excess surplus (Production less Consumption) being created by China within the current global economic environment? An economic environment that can best be described as looming stagflation?

BREXIT
We highlighted the June UK BREXIT referendum in this month’s Geo-Economic Themes. Though the polls are close it is likely to be a NO vote but nevertheless the uncertainty will still be disruptive to the fragile global markets.

TTIP
We additionally highlighted the TTIP – Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership agreement being quietly slipped through EU legislation. The secrecy of the document and its content are extremely alarming. This “corporate grab” also has the potential to be extremely disruptive as confidence continues to erode in the developed economies with regard to political governance. The US primaries are only the beginning of what we can expect in the developed economies as their entitlement programs are more widely seen to be unfundable and unsustainable.

WHO WILL ABSORB CHINA'S SURPLUS (PRODUCTION – CONSUMPTION)?

JUNE 2016 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

JUNE VIDEO

THE G-7 SENDAI DISCHORD

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the JUNE 2016 Update >> CLICK HERE

A FAILING SOCIAL CONTRACT (Sectional Update - 501 Page .pdf)
There is an Unwritten Contract between the Governing Class and those being Governed!

A FAILING SOCIAL CONTRACT (Summary Highlights - 119 Page .pdf)
There is an Unwritten Contract between the Governing Class and those being Governed!

Our GMTP Aggregated Risk Levels has risen again during this assessment period. Significantly contributing to the rise was a global deterioration in CDSs, TED Spread, Libor/OIS and overall weakening economic news.

The major movement seen in the Tipping Point rankings was the elevation of four Tipping Points to High Risk from Elevated Risk. These were TP’s associated with stock market levels, valuations and fundamentals. The following Tipping Points were all elevated:

#7 US Stock Market Valuations
#8 Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate
#9 Credit Contraction II
#10 US Dollar Strength

The IMF's mid year reports were all alarming, as well as were warnings from the OECD. There is a major shift in sentiment occurring.

Geo-Political Event Risk grew associated with the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This has caused a rupture in relations between the House of Saud and the Obama Administration. Brexit, the EU Refugee crisis and EU Italian Banks all added to the increasing number of event risk areas.

MAY 2016 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

MAY VIDEO

A FAILING SOCIAL CONTRACT

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the MAY 2016 Update >> CLICK HERE

A 2016 US RECESSION? (Sectional Update - 400 Page .pdf)
Is The Global Slowdown Washing Ashore in the US?

A 2016 US RECESSION? (Summary Highlights - 93 Page .pdf)
Is The Global Slowdown Washing Ashore in the US?

The global slowdown in trade is rapidly washing ashore in America. In this month's in "Special Focus" we examine a great number of economic measures & metrics to consider whether the US in a recession or whether it soon will be. The facts are overwhelmingly convincing that the US is likely already in a recession and the only way of avoiding it getting worse is with immediate central bank actions. Even with significantly reduced gas pump prices, the escalating costs of healthcare (Obamacare has increased healthcare costs for most recipients), sky rocketing education costs and increasing costs of services have crimped US consumer consumption.

The Brooking institute recently convened a conference to consider what options the Federal Reserve had in its arsenal to combat a possible recession. Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke released two papers in concert which pointed towards NIRP and the long end of the yield curve as the most likely recourse for Federal Reserve policy initiatives. It seems that the Fed and their supporting 'think tanks' are already on the case. Expect both policy initiatives to unfold in early second half. Of course for this to happen the Fed must reverse course on its stated interest rate hike policy guidance. We will soon witness rapid backpedaling by Fed chairperson Janet Yellen to soon occur - watch for it. Corporate profits are falling at unprecedented rates and Q1 earnings will be a major disappointment. We expect financial markets to soon begin showing serious strain and investor concern by late summer or early summer.

The US economy is presently crippled by lack of investment stemming from reduced spending by a "gutted" middle class. The chart below illustrates that wages and salaries simply have not been keeping up with rising costs and eventually something had to give. This months extensive number of charts and graphs demonstrates this beyond any doubt, even to the most skeptical among us.

APRIL 2016 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

APRIL AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION COMING! (Sectional Update - 887 Page .pdf)
Too Many Cracks to Allow Much Further Delay

CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION COMING! (Summary Highlights - 50 Page .pdf)
Too Many Cracks to Allow Much Further Delay

Large cracks are appearing in the global economc fabric across the global. The seriousness of the problems are such that Central Bank Governors are being forced to speak out in a manner that they are not accustoimed to doing. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is out with a stark warning on the ramifications of slowing global growth as is past BOE Governor Mervyn King saying the Eurozone is on a doomed course , just as Brits contemplate Brexit which if it occurs according to the G20 communique, would destabilize the global economy. At the completion of this G20 meeting of finance minsters in Singapore the German Finance Minister went forcibly on record as saying that the current expansive monetary policies have laid the foundation for the next economic crisis. Even a Chinese Finance official said the World Economy now needs a Fiscal Jolt. These and other warnings giving earlier this quarter by the IMF, BIS, OECD and World Bank are clear about the state of the current global economy. It seems everyone is warning because they see no agreemnts being reached on any coordinated planned actions. Only a global corrdinated central bank reponse will delay the coming crisis. The actions won't stop it - only delay the inevitability further.

• EU: Terrorism, an intractable refugee problem threatening the Schengen Agreement, slowing economies forcing NIRP and $9T in sovereign bonds trading at negative rates, an upcoming Brexit referendum, elections across the EU showing consistent anti government sentiment and now another banking crisis looming as fears of what is behind problems at Deutsche Bank un-nerve investors.
• CHINA: The credit crisis only gets worse as capital flees, markets fall and trade continues to slow. It is hard to see any other result other than a hard landing as China sell reserves at an unprecendented rate to shore up a weakening Yuan currency.
• JAPAN: Japan is clearly bankrupt and ABEnomic's desperate implementation of NIRP has the potential of destabilizing the Japanese financial system and possibly the reat of Asia. Tiem will tell but even BOJ Governor Kuroda seems unusally nervous.
• EMERGING MARKETS: Slowing trade, excess debt denominated in a strong US$, widening current account deficits and weakening currencies as capital continues to exit the Emerging Markets in what can only be described as a serious situation. Brazil is in the worst depression since 1901.

When the US is seen as the beacon of economic growth and itself is looking down the gun barrel of what surely looks like a recession in 2016, it doesn't bode well for any miracles being on the horizon.

These are just some of the reasons everyone is warning!

MARCH 2016 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

MARCH VIDEO

CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION COMING!

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Global, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the MARCH 2016 Update >> CLICK HERE

UNCERTAINTY & APPREHENSIVE UNEASINESS (Sectional Update - 987 Page .pdf)
Sentiment Takes on a Tone of Worry

UNCERTAINTY & APPREHENSIVE UNEASINESS (Summary Highlights - 37 Page .pdf)
Sentiment Takes on a Tone of Worry

We have an incipient Global Bear Market underway with world equity market capitalization down over $16.8 Trillion. The technical charts suggest the completion of a 7.5 year cycle from the 2000 Dotcom highs to the 2007 GFC highs to today. With global debt at all time hights, a reversing credit cycle, global trade & Industrial Production collapsing, commodities reaching lows not seen in 40 years and oil below $30/bl - there is lots to worry about!

Central Bank Monetary Policy is now steadily coming under fire as many anaysts and bankers no longer believe QE and ZIRP are appropriate policy responses and are looking for new approaches which range from NIRP (Negative Nominal Interest Rate Policy), OMF (Overt Monetary Policy) to other untested experiments. With global liqiudity quickly evaporating the central bankers will soon be expected to respond, especially if global markets continue to deterioriate further.

Deflationary pressures coming out of China should not be underestimated, nor what is clearly a global oil price war now underway. The oil war was intially about Russian sanctions but now is taking on the complexity of a Saudi Arabia - Iran oil price war. Both giant middle east energy producers are aligned with opposing east-west powers (US versus Russia) and Syria has become the front for a proxy driven conflict (see pipeline map below).

The fall-out of plunging oil and commodity prices has shaken the HY (Junk) Bond Market, Distressed Debt Market and many of the US$ currency pegs. The Yuan, Hong Kong and Saudi currency pegs are exposed and may soon shock the financial markets similar to the Swiss Francs' capitulation just over a year ago.

We look for a recession scare in the US, driven by the slowing global trade, to force a Federal Reserve Policy reversal by mid 2016.

FEBRUARY 2016 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

FEBRUARY VIDEO

UNCERTAINTY & APPREHENSIVE UNEASINESS

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the FEBRUARY 2016 Update >> CLICK HERE

ANNUAL THESIS DOCUMENT

REPORT

Week Ending January 16th, 2016

GLOBAL SLOWDOWN STEEPENING (Sectional Update - 446 Page .pdf)
Credit Cycle is Reacting

GLOBAL SLOWDOWN STEEPENING (Summary Highlights - 98 Page .pdf)
Credit Cycle is Reacting

ALL INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC MONITORING INSTITUTIONS ARE WARNING

Governments and central banks risk tipping the world into a fresh financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund has warned, as it called time on a corporate debt binge in the developing world. Emerging market companies have “over-borrowed” by $3 trillion in the last decade, reflecting a quadrupling of private sector debt between 2004 and 2014, found the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report.

This dangerous over-leveraging now threatens to unleash a wave of defaults that will imperil an already weak global economy, said stark findings from the IMF’s twice yearly report.

BIS: Quote or Title (Link)
BIS warns “unrealistic and dangerous to expect that monetary policy can cure all the global economy’s ills”. Warns that recent turmoil is not caused by isolated incidents:

– Debt levels are now so extreme they threaten the financial system,
– Ultra low rates have led to mal-investment and bigger boom/bust cycles,
– Emerging markets vulnerable to deeper crises,
– ECB easy money may juice markets for a while but reckoning is coming,
– BIS acknowledge that central banks rig markets,          
– Gold and silver protect against crises in financial system.

OECD:  OECD Chief Economist Catherine Mann said It's Time To "Temper The Frothiness" In Markets as the head of the OECD, Angel Gurría says spendthrift countries are leaving themselves exposed to next shock.

WB: World Bank's chief economist Kaushik Basu has warned “The world economy is looking so troubled that if the US goes in for a very quick move in the middle of this I feel it is going to affect countries quite badly."

IMF: IMF Fears $3 Trillion Credit Crunch; Lagarde Says "IMF Credibility at Stake", Calls for US to Give China More Voting Power. In its half-yearly update on the health of the world economy, the Washington-based fund predicted expansion of 3.1% in 2015, 0.2 points lower than it was expecting three months ago and the weakest performance since the trough of the downturn in 2009. The IMF is warning that the weak recovery in the west risks turning into near stagnation after cutting its global economic growth forecast for the fourth successive year.  “Despite considerable differences in country-specific outlooks, the new forecasts mark down expected near-term growth rates marginally, but nearly across the board. Moreover, downside risks to the world economy appear more pronounced than they did just a few months ago.”

DECEMBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

DECEMBER VIDEO

GLOBAL SLOWING STEEPENING

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the AUGUST 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

"QE FOR THE PEOPLE" (Sectional Update - 1029 Page .pdf)
Helicopter Money (OMF) Coiming During the Next Drawdown

"QE FOR THE PEOPLE" (Summary Highlights - 96 Page .pdf)
Helicopter Money (OMF) Coiming During the Next Drawdown

When a country consumes more than it produces for a sustained period of time, its Fiscal & Monetary choices will steadily decline. We would argue slowly at first, then faster. Correlated with US credit growth it is also exponential!

Because of this we believe the Federal Reserve and other developed economies’ central banks will soon be forced to roll out, or unleash in a coordinated fashion, a number of new policies to stem a potential global economic crisis.

QE IS NOT WORKING - So fully expect authorities to double-down and broaden their ill conceived monetary experiment!

In previous reports we have laid out that easy credit, quantitative easing and ZIRP initially brought demand forward. More importantly, this excess credit fostered a massive global oversupply. Quantitative Easing has stopped bringing demand forward and in fact is now working against this by reducing Pricing Power and unleashing powerful global deflationary pressures. More and more economists are recognizing this and writing about it.

The real possibility of an economic recession is looming. The central bankls will be forced to use new tools to fight this threat

NOVEMBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

NOVEMBER AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS (Sectional Update - 966 Page .pdf)
Too Much Supply & Too Many Brands Combine with Too Much Credit

THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS (Summary Highlights - 55 Page .pdf)
Too Much Supply & Too Many Brands Combine with Too Much Credit

The world faces both broad global economic issues imbalances as well as increasingly dangerous regional problems. Whether these regional dilemmas are:

• The Syrian refugee problem in Europe,
• Russia and China placing military assets on Syrian soil,
• The collapse in commodity prices from oil in the Middle East / Russia to basic materials in Emerging Economies,
• The collapsing Chinese stock market and China's global export growth,
• The lack of well paying jobs and growing youth unemployment in the developed economies,
• The politcal corruption issues in Brazil or a Communist taking the reins of the UK Labor Party,

.. the world is a 'tinderbox' which any conflict can potentially ignite into a global fire.

This month we examine these regional headaches through a broad array of insightful charts.

OCTOBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

OCTOBER VIDEO

THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Global, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the OCTOBER 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

ECHO BOOM - Revisited (Sectional Update - 916 Page .pdf)
Emerging Markets Feeling the Pain

ECHO BOOM - Revisited (Summary Highlights - 55 Page .pdf)
Emerging Markets Feeling the Pain

SEPTEMBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

SEPTEMBER VIDEO

THE ECHO BOOM - Revisited

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the AUGUST 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

VALUE VORTEX (Sectional Update - 397 Page .pdf)
Why Value Is Getting Harder to Find

VALUE VORTEX (Summary Highlights - 74 Page .pdf)
Why Value Is Getting Harder to Find

Global Risk has clearly truned up according to the GMTP's Aggregate Risk Level Index. Widening EU CDS (Credit Default Spreads) along with a rising TED Spread suggest lenders are increasing nervous.

Global Event Risk in Greece and a Chinese Market Crash may be the obvious reason for the nervousness, but the GMTP sees it to be much broader based. Credit problems in Puerto Rico are shaking the Monoline Muni Insurers as it did when it preceeded the 2008 Financial Crisis, Slowing Global Trade and plunging Commodity prices are impacting Emerging Economies, Liqudity worries in the global bond markets have institutional inverstors worried and increasingly taking protective positions. Unfortunately, the list goes on.

Equity markets are clearly showing signs of rolling over. The central bankers can see all of this and we believe are prepared. When the markets finally react to the multipicity of clear distortions, expect the central bankers to unleash unprecedented new policies aimed at guaranteeing plunging collateral values. Starting with the September Quadruple Witch, expect heightened volatility & nervousness to shift to worry and possibly worse.

AUGUST 2015 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

AUGUST VIDEO

THE VALUE VORTEX

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the AUGUST 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

PENSION POVERTY AHEAD (Sectional Update - 1067 Page .pdf)
Pensions are Underfunded and No Longer Risk Free

PENSION POVERTY AHEAD (Summary Highlights - 69 Page .pdf)
Pensions are Underfunded and No Longer Risk Free

We are becoming increasingly concerned with a turn in the US Business Cycle. The Surprise Index along with other indicators is suggesting that the business cycle has peaked and is headed lower. Small Business Sentiment shows slowing planned hiring as we additionally notice increased levels of announced layoffs and store closings. The US Retail sector is under increasing pressures (which we feature this month in a Special 162 page Supplement) as US Consumption feels the pains of reduced real income.

We are equally concerned about the US Muni Financial market as fiscal problems at the state and local level are becoming increasingly evident such as in Puerto Rico, Illinois and Chicago. Infrastructure spending has all but stopped to pay for debt servicing costs and public service employees pensions & benefits. Rating downgrades spell potentially serious financial problems for fiscal funding going forward. A slowing business cycle and turndown may be something many state and local governments will not be able to handle in 2015.

 

JULY 2015 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

JULY AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

THE WAR ON CASH (Sectional Update - 828 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (82 Page Summary Highlights)

In the EU we see weak economic results across the Eurozone but with some positive exceptions. The problems in Greece are near a climax with Germany and the Troika. One way or the other the situation will be (temporarily) resolved. Problems in Greece are likely to soon be followed by problems in Italy, where a falling birth rate and migrant 'boat people' fleeing North Aftrica are putting addded stress on an already fragile economy.

Right behind Italy is Portugal and Spain. The recent Spanish election results and ascending socialist movement in Portugal signal further political leadership confusion. In France it is astounding to see the high number of voters who simply don't have any faith in socialist President Hollande, while in the UK the surpising election results show party platforms support either leaving the UK (Scotland) or leaving the EU.

In Asia we see an out of control chinese stock market as China signals monetary easing to stop increasing capital out flows. Japan's economic outlook continues to deteriorate with 43% of tax revenue now going to pay the interest on an ever expanding sovereign debt.

In the Emerging Markets all eyes are on Brazil as their Chinese BRICS partner had to come to their rescue with $50B in funding. The BRICS continue to increase their alliance, as Russia added $100B to the BRICS rival IMF Deveopment Fund.

JUNE 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

JUNE AUDIO

WAR ON CASH

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the JUNE 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

WORRIED BANKERS (Sectional Update - 797 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (72 Page Summary Highlights)

In examining over 100 chart additions to this months GMTP report a number of developments stood out. First is the magnitude of global slowdown. It is pervasive and the US Macro indicators show it is sweeping over America. There is a strong probability we will talking Recession concerns by late 2015 unless the Fderaal Reserve reverses policy direction of tightening credit.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is the first clear signs that De-dollarization has begun. Sovereign leaders have rebelled with 57 countries becoming chart members of the AIIB which is targeted to raise $57T in capital investment. This capital will over time be denominated in other than US dollars. It may not have been a mutiny but it certainly was a vote of non-confidence in US leadership and its management of the global reerve currency.

Negative nominal interest rates and the rising "War on Cash" by bthe banks is a sign that the bankers are worried. Credit is being denied which is an early sign of cracks in the dike.

 

MAY 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

MAY AUDIO

WORRIED BANKERS

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk & Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the MAY 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

QE: A FAILED EXPERIMENT (Sectional Update - 336 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (63 Page Summary Highlights)

Our Aggregated Risk Index has confirmed it has reversed and is now increasing. It is additionally above the "5" threshold which is considered elevated. The Leading Economic Indicators (ECRI's LEI) and US Macro have deteriorated noticeably. We also note worsening activity in the Credit Markets and a TED spread increase. Caution is advised.

Our Tipping Point Assessment specifically shows an increase in the risk areas of the Bond Bubble, Risk Reversal and China's Hard Landing.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a clear blow to US foreign policy leadership. It must be seen as an major "Anit-US Movement" and the first clear signal of strong and growing global desire for "De-Dollarization". The US is seen to have abused its special privilege as the world's Reserve Currency for too long and other powers are unwilling to go along with US leadership much longer. As a direct result the US was forced to capitulate and apply for membership after being deserted by 33 global powers, including almost all G20 members.

The situations in Yemen, the Ukraine, Syria (ISIS) and the Iranian nuclear talks are all capable of de-stabilizing an already 'fragile'& tenuous financial markets condition. We are on the verge of potentially igniting a new "Colder War" through inept US Foreign Policy.

APRIL 2015 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

APRIL AUDIO

QE: A FAILED EXPERIMENT

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro & Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the APRIL 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

NIRP COMES TO AMERICA (Sectional Update - 924 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (29 Page Summary Highlights)

There is little doubt the global economy is slowing rapidly and the US economy is much weaker than the mainstream media and government portends it to be. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently warned world leaders:

"Global effective demand is extraordinarily weak - tantamount to the late stages of the great depression."

We must be looking at the same economic numbers as Greenspan because we don't believe he is exaggerating! Greenspan also states that:

"Capital investment is key to productivity growth"

Capital expenditure is in free fall in the US and has reached the point where 90% of the last quarterly earnings of the S&P 500 saw profits used for buybacks and dividends. This leaves a maximum of 10% available for CAPEX, with most of that being deployed offshore. This is now of crisis proportions for the short and intermediate viability of the US Economy. Unfortunately, few leaders like Greenspan are willing to speak out publically.

This months report exhaustively shows the seriousness of the US Economic situation and why there is a real possibility of recession. The Federal Reserve must be well aware privately of this possibility, which will force them to keep rate increases on hold for longer than currently anticiapted. Irrelevant of short term rate policy decisions the Federal Reserve must not allow interest rates to rise or the US government will be unable to pay the interest rate on its debt.

This is one of the reasons that QE has effectively been targeted as a debt liquidation program to buy back US Treasuries. The result is the interest paid on these US Treasuries by the Treasury department is returned to them by the Fed as the Fed's profit. This shell game removes interest payments in a stealth fashion. This slight of hand works as long as the debt is continuously rolled over, which the Treasury and Fed could do ad infinitum.

MARCH 2015 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

MARCH AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

CRACKS IN THE FACADE (Sectional Update - 770 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (56 Page Summary Highlights)

Our Global Regional analysis continues to show a deteriorating global economic picture with the anticipated significant macro surprises now occurrring. Stability and complacency are beginning to appear 'out of place'.

We have witnessed energy prices plummeting over the last 90 days to values below breakevens for many in the US Shale Oil Industry, the Canadian Oil Sands and OPEC / Non-OPEC countires. This is a major de-stabilizing event, with the Russian economy now clearly bordering on crisis. Like a tsunamic the waves are still washing ashore.

As if this wasn't sufficient, we then have the sudden abandonment of the Swiss Franc peg which came completely unexpectantly. This has sent another shock wave globally with the Danish, Hong Kong and Singapore pegs ppearing to be under pressure.

The world had barely adjusted to Japan going "all in" with ABE-nomics and QQE levels never before imagined. Then the EU announces a 1.1 Trillion Euro QE program as Greece elects an anti EU government on a platform of not accepting the bailouts and their terms.

Excess debt levels and a resulting global slowdown is at the root of most of these issues as economies resort to currency intervention with "beggar-thy-neighbor" policies. If China retaliates due to comptitive pressures on the Yuan the world may face yet another and even more serious Tsunami.

The financial markets in the US have been disconnected from fundamentals and driven by Federal Reserve liquidity injections for some time now. The risk is high with TAPER now complete.

How many more shocks can the world stand before something breaks ... somewhere??

FEBRUARY 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

FEBRUARY AUDIO

CRACKS IN THE FACADE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the FEBRUARY 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

JANUARY 2015 Edition Release Schedule

ANNUAL THESE RELEASE - JANUARY 18th, 2015

JANUARY - NO AUDIO

ANNUAL THESIS

There is no accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) for January.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the DECEMBER 2014 Update >> CLICK HERE

CENTRAL BANKS LOSING CONTROL (Sectional Update - 543 Page .pdf)
Cracks Showing in Perceived Omnipotence

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (41 Page Summary Highlights)

Falling Energy prices are not getting the visibility they should. This is a major Geo-Economic development on a number of fronts:

1. The global slowdown is now so evident that OPEC feels it can't reduce supply for fear of further stalling the global economy with their economies highly dependent on energy prices remaining above $80-$100/bl,
2. The drop in WTI crude prices now makes the majority of US Shale oil wells un-profitable which will impact US energy supply,
3. The rise in the US dollar has clearly impacted energy bought and sold in only US$ due to the Petro$$ agreements. The emerging economies which are dependent on energy exports are now caught with loan payments in a rising US$ and energy receipts in falling US$ value,
4. Energy Corporations are a major component of equity markets and now have serious profit and capital exposures,
5. Russia will be driven into a steepening recession and will be forced to escalate tensions with the west, in some fashion.

These and other associated developments have the potential of destabilizing an already tenuous global im-balance.

Global monetary direction has now reversed and easing has become the dominate theme with shocking central bank announcements in Japan, China and the EU. The US$ as a consequence has become the recipient of the expectations of loosening credit standards while the US stands pat (or at least is perceived to be holding the line on further Fed balance sheet expansion). A further strengthening US$ will add additional destabilizing pressures.

DECEMBER 2014 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

DECEMBER AUDIO

CENTRAL BANKERS LOSING CONTROL

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Risk, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the DECEMBER 2014 Update >> CLICK HERE

EVENT RISK SUDDENLY MATTERS (Sectional Update - 275 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (64 Page Summary Highlights)

Geo-Political Event Risk is beginning to dominate the Short to Intermediate Global Risk Assessment. Risks are associated with:

1. The ISIS State,
2. An escalating Ukraine-Russia, East-West Conflict,
3. Growing intractable deflation issues in Europe and Japan,
4. A Strengthening US$ based on an increasing global flight to perceived safety,
5. Volatility in the Credit markets with Collateral and Liquidity once again showing worrying signs as the US TAPER programs comes to and end,
6. The continuing threat of a hard landing in China and ASEAN based on slowing global growth,
7. The destabilizing impact of falling oil and energy costs to energy exporters such as Russia, Brazil and Mexico
8. A quickly weakening US economy as the only beacon of global strength..

Our proprietary Aggregated Risk Levels increased for the first time in two years, primarily due to increasing Credit Default Spreads (CDS), weakening US Housing and reversing Leading Economic Indicators.

The EBOLA pandemic threat and economic warnings from the IMF, World Bank, BIS and OECD all suggest the world is increasingly becoming more complex, interconnected and unstable. With 100M Unemployed, 300M young people neither working nor studying, 447M working poor and 600M new jobs required for population growth alone the recent G20 summit faced daunting problems with no solutions.

NOVEMBER 2014 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

NOVEMBER AUDIO

EVENT RISK SUDDENLY MATTERS

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro & Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP AUDIO PAGE as part of the NOVEMBER 2014 Update >> CLICK HERE

THE CRONY TRIBUTE SYSTEM (Sectional Update - 944 Page .pdf)

EXECUTIVE BRIEF (58 Page Summary Highlights)

When you consume more than you produce within a 71% Consumption Economy like the US, then savings are restricited. Additionally, with the US Government spending now approaching close to 40% of GDP, there is insufficient private savings for any investment, ever mind 'risk' investments. There can be no sustainable profits without productive investment of savings. Entitlement programs not only reduce investment but also reduced the cornerstones of the capitalist system: Innovation, Effort and Risk.

Because of this the US economy is steadily deteriorating and continues to be artifically supported by only government deficit spending and a historic growth in the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet. These measures are clearly failing to create sustainable economic growth. but are the only efforts being made as Public Policy is held ransom to failied political leadership and gridlock.

We continue to see the following major issues:

1. US Housing market which has clearly begun rolling over,
2. HELOC loan deliquency levels,
3. Residual used car values which will eventually undermine the Shadow Banking System,
4. Lower credit scores for new consumer debt plus Cov-lite & PIK Commercial loan acceleration,
5. Accelerating deterioration in retail sales with crumbling discretionary spending,
6. Continued weak US CAPEX spending by both small business and S&P 500,
7. Negative net startup/small business formations,
8. Chronic unemployment (with growth only in part time work within low paying sectors)

OCTOBER 2014 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.