FULL REPORT

AUGUST MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (237 Pages)

AUGUST EXECUTIVE BRIEF - (46 Page)

It would appear that the Swiss National Bank is assisting in holding up the US Equity m,arkets in a stealth fashion. The Swiss National Bank (A SWAP Proxy for the Fed or US Treasury?) has acquired $60B of SPECIFIC US Equities!

Since the end of QE3 (Oct 2014), the broadest measure of the US equity market (NYSE Composite) is modestly lower (-1.2%).

SWISS NATIONAL BANK HOLDING UP THE US MARKET

$60B SHOULD ABOUT DO IT!

Swiss National Bank are big holders of the "Fab 5"

NOTE: The following article appeared just after the release of this month's MATA video "POLICY MAKERS HAVE CHANGED THE FUNCTION OF THE MARKETS".

The Bank of Japan Will Be The Top Shareholder Of 55 Companies By The End Of 2017

With the BOJ already a top-five owner of 81 companies in Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average, the BOJ is on course to become the No. 1 shareholder in 55 of those firms by the end of next year. Just as insane, the central bank owned about 60% of Japan’s domestic ETFs at the end of June. This is up from just over half as of a few months ago suggesting that the BOJ is gobbling up equities at an unprecedented pace.

AUGUST Edition Release - Monday August 15th, 2016

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AUGUST VIDEO

POLICY MAKERS HAVE CHANGED THE FUNCTION OF THE MARKETS

From Price Discovery to National Confidence

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SEPTEMBER Edition Release - Monday September 12th, 2016

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SEPTEMBER AUDIO

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• Long Term (Fundamentals)

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FULL REPORT

JULY MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (291 Pages)

JULY EXECUTIVE BRIEF - (48 Page)

The market is now at a critical point as we put in a double top in the S&P 500. By normal standards the market should now head lower based on a Global Head & Shoulders and Rounded Top, but these are not normal times.

Instead we wait as we fully expect major central actions to be announced to stop a potential unmanageable market drawdown. Additionally, the European Banking Crisis and stalled Chinese Economy are now serious issues. Caution is advised for both the Bears and Bulls.

JULY Edition Release - Monday July 11th, 2016

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JULY VIDEO

THE NATURAL ORDER: Patterns Within the Chaos

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FULL REPORT

JUNE MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (335 Pages)

JUNE EXECUTIVE BRIEF - (51 Page)

US Treasury Bonds and a flattening Yield Curve clearly suggests that the Credit Market sees something more concerning ahead than does the US Equity markets? It  has been my experience that credit markets seldom get it wrong and the equity markets seldom get it right!

The gap we are seeing between the 10Y UST and the annualized US nominal growth has been a harbinger of major market drawdowns in the past. The 2 standard deviation measure on the 10Y UST is consistent with what we saw in 2000 and 2008 before major market corrections. Will it be different this time?

One way of answering that question is to look at margin debt being used to fund equity purchases. It isn’t just the elevated levels that must be examined but rather what happens after peaks. When credit cycles turn we often see margin debt fall off. The chart below is a classic telltale currently being ignored, though the smart money according to BoAML (we have shown this in previous reports) has been exiting the markets for 12 consecutuve weeks.

It isn't often that long term Moving Averages like the 12Mo and 24 Mo cross. They are something to be watched closely as they have been consistently accurate indicators of problems ahead for equities. Earnings are expected to fall in Q2 which will be the 5th consecutive quarter. Revenues are expected to fall for the sixth consecutive quarter. How does a market rise on consistently falling earnings and revenue?

We have talked previously about falling corporate cash flows and EBITDA. Corporations are being forced to shore up earnings to even falling levels by once again cutting labor costs….… and something many corporation are dearth to do – cut dividends!!

Expanding PE’s have been the savior todate but they are now at 81%above their long term regression. What do the equity markets see ahead that merit these PEs? They don’t see the Recession the debt markets see. Rather they see more money printing and cheap rates. Unfortunately those leanding the money don’t see that! Someone is terribly wrong!

JUNE Edition Release - Monday June 13th, 2016

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JUNE AUDIO

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FULL REPORT

MAY MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (394 Pages)

MAY EXECUTIVE BRIEF - (53 Page)

Q1 Earnings were dismal and it would appear anaysts were then even shocked by the errosion in US Retail Earnings. Whether you look at Rail, Air, Trucking or Shipping traffic, they all reflect slowing global trade which we have been reporting on for the last three quarters. The global slowdown is washing ashore in America as the US consumer tries to absorb rsing healthcare, education, childcare and property taxes while wages are frozen and job insecurity rises. The fear of the unkinown is forcing US consumers to pull in their spending even if they have the ability to consume more.

A market PE ratio at 16.7X forward botton-up adjusted EPS (see below) is a siren call that caution is advised. A 5-10% market drawdown isa likelyprobability in Q3, even if the market was headed higher. Whether a correction or consolidation the market is ahead of earnings and only PE multiple expansion is holding it up.

There are three market headwinds looming which are currently receiving little attention.

1. CORPORATE BUYBACKS are exposed to deteriorating EBITDA's and Cash Flow which will hurt crecdit ratings, loan covenants and interest costs due to high Debt to Cashflow ratios,
2. REDEMPTIONS are rising signiciantly for Hedge Funds as Insurance companies and Pension are withdrawing funds in order to move money to higher yielding Private Placements. AIG (-$4B), MetLife (-$1.2B) and Calstars are only the intial wave which is yet to come.
3. APPLE EARNINGS were a major disappointment. Apple has been the "roach hotel" for the markets and its' earnings have been holding up the market. This changed in Q1 and the poutlook for iPhone sales suggests the worst is still ahead of us.

MAY Edition Release - Monday May 16th, 2016

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MAY VIDEO

INVESTORS EXITING THE PARTY!

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FULL REPORT

APRIL MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (82 Pages)

APRIL EXECUTIVE BRIEF - (64 Page)

The story this month is earnings. Q1 2016 earnings are expected to see the biggest quarterly drop since 2009. S&P Forward Earnings expectations have been steadily falling since mid 2014 and have again dverged from stock prices. Corporate cash flows and EBITDA have correspondingly been falling which is hurting investment flows. To quote David Stockman (former Regan Administration Budget chief): "The signs of an impending macroeconomic and profits implosion are now so overwhelming that it is truly remarkable that there are any bids left in the casino at all!"

It is believed that the recent US Economic forecast by the Richmond Fed prompted an emergency March 11th FOMC meeting and a visit by Chairperson Janet Yellen to the White House immediately following the meeting. What we have been screaming from the roof tops appears to have finally reached the hallowed halls of the Federal Reserve.

The total US Monetary Base has began shrinking and the correlation with weakness in the S&P 500 index is evident. A falling Monetary Base is hurting liquidity which is hurting financial flows. Global trade has been slowing at rates corresponding to 2007 and now the 2016 US consensus GDP growth is being reduced.  Like earning expectations it is dramatically diverging from a still buoyant US stock market.

We believe a lack of CAPEX spending and business investment is now showing in falling top line revenue and sales growth. Normally it can be expected that a slowing business investment cycle will lead the overall economy into recession when business investment contracts.

Look out for "Recession" and "Stagflation" to domnate the wordclouds in coming quarters!

APRIL Edition Release - Monday April 11th, 2016

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APRIL VIDEO

TRADING THE STEALTH SHANGHAI ACCORD

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FULL REPORT

MARCH MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (433 Pages)

MARCH EXECUTIVE BRIEF - (71 Page)

As the chart below shows, US Industrial Production has been steadily falling since the US came off the gold standard (not because it came off the gold standard, but rather indicative of the underlying problems associated with why it had to abandon the gold standard). A clear downward channel is now seeing IP plummet towards the bottom of its long term descending channel. As we show this month in the MATA report, a US Recession is in the cards for 2016. The only thing that can stop it is once again (it is becoming like a broken record) is aggressive Monetary Policy. Of course like Japan's 11 versions of QE, QQE and now NIRP, it will fail.

Risk has never been higher in the equity and credit markets. As we pointed out in previous reports the Credit Cycle has turned and it is now making Corporate Stock Buybacks more expensive for corporate borrowers. This has not stopped them however as the studies section shows! Presently, it is the only support holding up this fractured edifice as institutions and hedge funds exit the market.

We also point out in the Studies section that buying of equities is becoming more and more the practice of troubled global economies. The biggest holder of equity ETFs in Japan is the BOJ. Norway had (until oil prices collapsed) targeted 5% of EU equites for it sovereign wealth fund buying. These are only a couple of examples as it appears the EU will soon follow. These actions are to be expected as Pensions and Insurance (Annuity) Companies are in trouble and their portfolios must be stopped from falling or the problems will quickly become unmanageable.

This month's report illustrates that the technicals demonstrate all the classic signs of completing a bear market rally. However, it must be stressed - these are not normal times and the degree of government intervention is unprecedented. With horrendous levels of mal-investment, mispriced risk and lack of price discovery it is a playing field ripe for manipulation.

This is no longer investing nor specualting. It is now outright gambling in a rigged casino! Caution advised.

MARCH Edition Release - Monday March 14th, 2016

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MARCH AUDIO

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FULL REPORT

FEBRUARY MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (369 Pages)

FEBRUARY EXECUTIVE BRIEF - (51 Page)

We have never seen the Credit Cycle turn before with this degree of asset over-valuations, leverage and financialization speculation on such a broad global basis. We have also in recent memory never seen it turn globally in such a synchronized manner. The global trade slowdown is clearly on the level of 2007 (if not worse) with no clear engine of economic growth to reverse this unparalleled perfect storm.

It is now finally acccepted by the analyst community that Quantitative Easing and ZIRP have been ineffective as the catalyst in creating economic growth. You can count on the central bankers and government to launch even more brazen and unproven policy responses in further futile attempts to hamper the deflation storm about to "slam" impaired assets and malinvestments. It is going to get ugly in 2016!

When banks start buying Gold and people are lined up to buy gold as recently reported in the UK, you know serious problems are on the horizon. Gold breaking through long term overhead resistance is something everyone should be paying attention to this month. Energy and commodity prices cannot fall to the extent they have without significant global consequences, no matter how much Wall Street says it isn't important - as they unload.

If it isn't important then you should ask them, why is this occurring?

ALSO: Notice for how long it has been going on! Some belief this is long overdue!

FEBRUARY Edition Release - Monday February 15th, 2016

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FEBRUARY AUDIO

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED!

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ANNUAL THESIS DOCUMENT

REPORT

Week Ending January 16th, 2016

FULL REPORT

DECEMBER MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (418 Pages)

DECEMBER EXECUTIVE BRIEF - (50 Page)

The Credit Cycle has peaked and is now contracting. This is placing tremendous pressures on the high yield (HY) debt associated with highly leveraged players within the energy and commodity sectors. Expect something to break somewhere. Glencore was only a canary-in-the-coal-mine warning of the mounting problems. The Emerging Markets are feeling the most pains and a sovereign debt breakdown should not be under-estimated. Meanwhile the US stock market is disconnected from the global reality of a global slowing larger than that which preceded the 2008 financial crisis. The NIFTY NINE keep the US illusion alive - temporarily.

FANG & NOSH BECOME THE “NIFTY NINE”

FANG STOCKS

1. Facebook,
2. Amazon,
3. Netflix and
4. Google

Ned Davis Research refers to the NIFTY NINE, which adds:

1. Priceline,
2. Ebay,
3. Starbucks,
4. Microsoft and
5. Salesforce. (Note that Apple appears on neither list which until recently was THE MARKET and accounted for 20% of the underlying Margin Expansion since 2010.)

While the S&P languishes unchanged in 2015, this small group of overwhelmingly propagandized stocks are up on average over 60%, but with a collective P/E of 45, they are not cheap. This is the same situation which we have at all bubble tops. Only the names change (the 4 Horsemen in the Dotcomm Bubble run-up: Cisco, Intel, Microsoft & Qualcomm) and the rationalization hype (2000: “new economic paradigm”). If that is not enough ...

THIS IS SIMPLY THE WRONG TIME FOR FED RATE HIKES (It's Too Late!)

DECEMBER Edition Release - Monday December 14th, 2015

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DECEMBER AUDIO

DEBT STORM OVER EMERGING MAREKTS

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FULL REPORT

NOVEMBER MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (373 Pages)

NOVEMBER EXECUTIVE BRIEF - (48 Page)

As we have been warning, corporate earnings are major market problem. The equity markets are now beginning to react and this can be more readily seen if you carefully analyse would is happening below the surface. The US equity market has been held up by corporate buybacks and 8 stocks. If you haven't learned who FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet (GOOG.GOOGL)) and NOSH (Nike, O'Reilly, Starbucks and Home Depot) are, then you aren't close enough to the markets and possibly your investment portfolio!

Last quarter we outlined we were in a Revenue Recession and this quarter we show we now have two consecutive quarters of negative Earnings Growth. Markets don't react well to this with margin debt reductions entering a third consecutive month. Margin Debt patterns have historically shown the third month to be when markets begin serious weakening. Caution is advised.

Corporate Buybacks, have clearly kept the markets elevated for two years. Recent evidence indicates this "game" is reaching its logical conclusion, as corporate cashflows (EBITDA) have began falling with consequence of corporate credit ratings becoming exposed. Both have direct impact going forward on the lending abilities of corporations, which have taken on monumental debt to finance carefully "engineered" increases in earning per share and dividend growth with which to shore up a lack of "top line" growth.

Momentum is also slowing and is evident in many measures but none more important than market breadth which Goldman Sachs reports is presently at historic lows. Weak Advance-Decline lines are evident across most global markets. We expect that after the traditional Year End Rally, we are likely to see year beginning tax selling and major portfolio repositioning in preparation for what is clearly looming in 2016.

NOVEMBER Edition Release - Monday November 16th, 2015

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NOVEMBER AUDIO

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FULL REPORT

OCTOBER MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (358 Pages)

OCTOBER EXECUTIVE BRIEF - (44 Page)

The NYSE Short Interest Rate (see below) is at levels not seen since just before the 2008 collapse of Lehman Bros during the Financial Crisis. Clearly there is a lot of nervousness and it is more than just the expected drop of -4.5% in the current Q3 quarterly earnings. Revenue are expected to fall -5.0% and this makes it the third consecutive fall in quarterly revenues for the S&P 500. Coupled together this reinforces the fears that the global slowdown is washing ashore in the only global hope for growth - the US Economy.

Corporate Free Cash Flows are additionally falling and along with widening corporate yield spreads now crimps the tsunami of share buybacks which have been holding up the US equity markets against steadily deteriorating bad economic numbers.

Sentiment & confidence has shifted as we predicted and with it the perception of risk. The worry of a US Recession is now a real possibility. Without Central Bank actions it a 2016 recession is almost a certainty. But what can the Federal Reserve realistically do with rates already near zero?

We presently see the current market activity as a counter rally in a short term correcting market. We believe we have more price downside before the central bankers are forced to rush in more triage to keep this market alive. Expect them to do this when the S&P 500 nears 1800. They can't afford the collateral underpinning the debt pyramid to be erroded!

OCTOBER Edition Release - Monday October 12th, 2015

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OCTOBER AUDIO

CREDIT INVESTORS BOLT PARTY

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SEPTEMBER MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (358 Pages)

SEPTEMBER EXECUTIVE BRIEF - (41 Page)

$1 trillion drop in emerging markets, a $4 trillion decline in development equity markets, and let's not forget, the bursting of the Chinese stock bubble, which from a peak market capitalization of $10 trillion in early June, or about the same as China's GDP, has lost some $4 trillion, since despite the Chinese government's increasingly more desperate and futile attempts to reflate the bubble.

The $9 trillion drop in combined market cap between the MSCI All World index and Chinese stocks, is the second highest ever, surpassed only by the $13 plunge in global market capitalization in late 2008.

ALL EYES ON CREDIT MARKETS

"The $9T decline in market values will impact implied leverage calculations and as such all eyes should now be on credit markets. Asian credit is already reacting to the price declines, with the likes of the Markit iTraxx Asia ex Japan CDS index moving significantly wider. However there has, as yet been no significant de-rating of credit in the likes of the US."

The drop in the market capitalization, and thus enterprise value (aka the EV used in the EV/EBITDA calculation) with debt sticky, will lead to far higher gross leverage ratios. To be sure, the $2 trillion in total debt (and $1 trillion in net debt) added to the balance sheets of non-financial firms since 2009 will not help. In fact, if the market suddenly realizes just how over levered US firms are, now that the Fed is set to begin hiking rates and pushing interest rates higher, something just may snap in the bond market which has been extremely generous to corporate CFOs in the past 7 years.

SEPTEMBER Edition Release - Monday September 14th, 2015

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SEPTEMBER AUDIO

US REVENUE RECESSION

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FULL REPORT

AUGUST MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (892 Pages)

Consumer, Investor and Trader Sentiment has shifted and Global Consumer Confidence is showing clear signs of deteriorating. Market Internals and Market Breadth can be best described as increasingly troublesome!

We have Event Risk in Greece, China, Brazil and Puerto Rico ... and the list goes on. We have Q2 earnings down 1.3% Y-o-Y and markets over-valued according to MATA research measures by 80.4%.

So if none of this is sufficient to de-rail this historic "central bank" bull market, what will? Alan Greenspan in his Humphrey-Hawking testimony as Federal Reserve Governor and global central bank leader was often heard to say that the thing that worried him the most, and the one thing he was unable to predict, was the inevitable and cyclical shifts in public sentiment and confidence.

LIke a thief in the night, major shifts in confidence and sentiment arrive unexpectedly and leave the unsuspecting and unprepared violated and in shock.

This months MATA reports lays out endless warnings, concerns and troubling historic annomalies which need to be thoughtfully heeded. Though we believe the central banks fully expect troubles (and have prepared for it), there is likely some scary moments to come in the fall.

It is highly likely that the next market scare will usher in the central banks last great "hurrah' and potentially the final market top for this great Bull Market in 2016.

AUGUST Edition Release - Sunday August 16th, 2015

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AUGUST AUDIO

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FULL REPORT

JULY MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (478 Pages)

Earnings estimates are being steadily reduced with a major year-end lift that is seldom ever delivered. What basis investors can rationalize such year-end performance is beyond this simple scribe’s ability to comprehend?

We have warned for some time to wait untill the 12 month MA’s begin to top and the Bollinger Bands begin to “curl”. We are seeing this anticipated signal now being formed. Sharp market movements often accompany such patterns especially if there is turmoil in the currency and bond markets. This is also clearly the present situation.

Greece has dominated the headlines for most of June / July. We updated our GMTP Aggregate Risk CDS tables and it was quite startling to see the degree of movement across the board in Europe. The fear is “running deep” on problems within the EU. Many obviously believe Greece is only the tip of the iceberg.

As we would expect the Euro has seen active trading. Now that a Greek deal is at hand (a terrible one with serious fall-out yet ahead), the Euro should see some strength against the Yen short term. We expect the Euro to fall faster than the Yen for the remainder of the year after a potential Greek relief rally.

Greece has pushed a major development out of the headlines and that is the historic equity market collapse occurring in China. It is no exaggeration to compare it to the US 1987 market sell-off and is quickly approaching a 1929 comparison.

We see Q3 weakness but fully expect to stay within the rising trend channels for the S&P 500 through the end of Q3.

JULY Edition Release -Sunday July 13th, 2015

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JULY AUDIO

HIDDEN AGENDAS COMING OUT OF HIDING!

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JUNE MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (817 Pages)

The liquidity problems in the Bond market have become so acute that FINRA has summoned the banks and asset managers in for strategy sessions. The urgency requires a plan be implementable by the follow-up meeting scheduled for early July.

There is a serious shortage of bonds which are needed to support collateral lending.

ILLIQUIDITY DRIVERS

1- REGULATORY RULES
First of all we have new regulatory rule which are slowly seizing up the liquidity in the $100T bond market.

1. New Basel III bank capital requirements made it too expensive for banks to hold certain inventories of securities on their books.
2. The Volcker Rule under Dodd-Frank prohibited certain proprietary trading that was an important adjunct to customer market making and provided some profits to make the customer risks worthwhile.
3. Fed and Treasury bank examiners were looking critically at highly leveraged positions in repurchase agreements that are customarily used to finance bond inventories.

2- FROM MARKET MAKERS TO AGENTS
Taken together, these regulatory changes meant that banks were no longer willing to step up and make two-way customer markets as dealers. Instead, they acted as agents and tried to match buyers and sellers without taking any risk themselves. This is a much slower and more difficult process and one than can break down completely in times of market distress.

3- HFT COMES TO BOND MARKET
In addition, new automated trading algorithms, similar to the high-frequency trading techniques used in stock markets, were now common in bond markets. This could add to liquidity in normal times, but the liquidity would disappear instantly in times of market stress. The liquidity was really an illusion, because it would not be there when you needed it. The illusion was quite dangerous to the extent that customers leveraged their own positions in reliance on the illusion. If the customers all wanted to get out of positions at once, there would be no way to do it and markets would go straight down.

4-HIGH QUALTIY SWAPS COLLATERAL
Another factor that Mr. Bond and I discussed over dinner was the shortage of high-quality collateral for swap and other derivatives transactions. This was the flip side of money printing by the Fed. When the Fed prints money, the do it by purchasing bonds in the market and crediting the seller with money that comes out of thin air. This puts money into the system, but it takes the bonds out of circulation. But banks need the bonds to support collateralized transactions in the swap markets.

A SHAKEY SHADOW BANKING SYSTEM

The importance of the bond issue must be put in perspective within the REPO market which underpins the Shadow Banking System and was at the root of the financial crisis in 2008 when the Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) market seized up. Today REPOS have replaced ABCP as the short term leveraged lending tool through Rehypothecation and Collateral Transformations.

JUNE Edition Release -Monday June 15th, 2015

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THE CENTRAL BANKER RISK

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MAY MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (817 Pages)

In previous reports we have continuously reported the deterioration we see in the overall financial markets, but despite this the markets have continued to soar to new dizzy heights. For the first time in history it has occurred in both the equity markets and the bond markets at the same time.

We now have a bubble in the equity market that makes the Dot.com bubble pallid in comparison and a bond bubble that is larger than the equity bubble as over $2T in bonds are forced to trade at negative yields. This had previously had been considered the natural limit of the upside to a bonds price appreciation.

In the equity markets this is primarily because of three reasons:

1. Corporate Tax Incented Buybacks reaching unprecedented levels,
2. Central Bank interference in the markets through large scale options buying,
3. Sovereign Wealth Fund & Government Pension Plan Buying,

All three of these have previously been unheard-of and are basically different forms of market manipulation.

This week the Swiss Central Bank admitted it was buying shares. It was disclosed that in 2013 it moved from 12% to 16% of their total asset holdings. The Swiss Central Bank joined the Bank of Japan in this admission where the BOJ has interceded 33 times in the markets in the last year. The Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund unveiled in June of last year that it planned to buy 5% of every European stock.

The result of this is financial markets are exhibiting patterns and behavior that has never (or at least seldom) been witnessed before. The signs are eerie that markets may have reached the point of being “wobbly”. Like trees that grow too high, they eventually become unstable and topple.

MAY Edition Release - Sunday May 10th, 2015

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APRIL MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (345 Pages)

During 2013, the Fed printed $1 trillion and the S&P 500 Index rose 30%.  During 2014, the Fed printed $450 billion and the S&P rose 11%. Monetary tightening began with the end of QE 3. Since 31 October 2014, when QE 3 ended, the S&P is flat.

What all of this has done is left us in suspended animation! The market is now vulnerable to a sharp correction given stretched valuations, the weak economy and contracting corporate earnings.

2015 will actually be the first year since 2007 without some form of quantitative easing!  During this six year period the Fed’s Balance Sheet has exploded by over $4 trillion and the US Government has spent another $11+ trillion. Between October and November of last year, the Federal Government issued $1 trillion in new debt in one month.

The bond bubble was $80 trillion going into 2008. Today it’s over $100 trillion. The US had $5 trillion in public debt going into 2008. Today it has over $18 trillion.

Despite all of this the US has experienced the weakest recovery in 80+ years! That is assuming it's really a recovery?  Every other recession going back to 1954 saw rates begin to rise a few years into the recovery.

It makes me pause and think that a year without monetizing bonds is going to be a big shock to the financial markets and stock traders.

APRIL Edition Release - Sunday April 12th, 2015

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THE MARKETS ARE IN SUSPENDED ANIMATION

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MARCH MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (268 Pages)

2015 will actually be the first year since 2007 without some form of quantitative easing! 

During this six year period the Fed’s Balance Sheet has exploded by over $4 trillion and the US Government has spent another $11+ trillion. Between October and November of last year, the Federal Government issued $1 trillion in new debt in one month.

The bond bubble was $80 trillion going into 2008. Today it’s over $100 trillion. The US had $5 trillion in public debt going into 2008. Today it has over $18 trillion.

Despite all of this the US has experienced the weakest recovery in 80+ years! That is assuming it's really a recovery?  Every other recession going back to 1954 saw rates begin to rise a few years into the recovery.

It makes me pause and think that a year without monetizing bonds is going to be a big shock to the financial markets and stock traders.

As we have spelled out in previous reports we are seeing global weakness around the world with very worrying signs coming from China and Emerging Markets. The US has been held up as the strongest economy with which to pin optimistic hopes.

However , US Macro Surprises have suddenly become alarmingly negative and are clearly following forward earnings estimates lower.

MARCH Edition Release - Sunday March 15th, 2015

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MARCH AUDIO

REVERSION TO THE MEAN

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FEBRUARY MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (737 Pages)

We have previously talked extensively about the slowing global economy, the deterioration in top line revenue growth, reduced capital investment expenditures and slowing liquidity flows. They are all coming home to roost, which in the near term will mean market volatility.

However, the Fed has $300B waiting in Reverse Repos to dampen any potential weakness which may affect collateral asset values too significantly.  The central bankers simply cannot afford to have financial markets fall anymore than to a level which simply reduces some of the present speculation “juices”. The central bankers must ensure that nothing causes any 'contagious' disturbances within the highly over-leveraged collateral base which is supporting this artifical asset 'edifice'.

In the very short term stocks are topping, the dollar is topping, the Euro is bottoming, Oil is bottoming, Gold, Silver and Mining stocks are bottoming, and Bonds are rising with further to rise. Bonds will soon be higher than they have been in decades. 

Once these obvious "red flags” are sold as “unimportant” to underlining assets values, we will head higher. This is what you can expect in a manipulated market before the central planners lose control and the market re-exerts itself.

FEBRUARY Edition Release - Tuesday February 10th, 2015

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FEBRUARY AUDIO

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JANUARY Edition Release - JANUARY 18th, 2014

ANNUAL THESIS

JANUARY AUDIO

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FULL REPORT

DECEMBER MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (583 Pages)

Intermediate-Term Top is likely in -

Expect an FMOC Driven Santa Claus Rally and Year Beginning Tax Gain Selling

Expect the Long-Term Top by Late Q3 2015

The signals to watch CONTINUE TO BE:

1. A "Death" Crosses in the 50, 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages (DMAs),
2. A curl in our Monthly S&P 500 Primary Trend Chart,
3. Deteriorating Credit Markets outside of the already failing HY,
4. Increasing event & headline risk events.

LOOK FOR AN FOMC DRIVEN SANTA CLAUS RALLY

CONCLUSIONS

• BUYBACKS ARE STALLING,
• FED IS NOW PLAYING AN OPTIONS GAME (To Control Market Volatility),
• GLOBAL ECONOMY & MARKETS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE,
• EVERYONE IS ON THE SAME SIDE OF THE BOAT WITH EXCESS CONFIDENCE AND COMPLACENCY.

DECEMBER Edition Release - Monday December 15th, 2014

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DECEMBER AUDIO

AN ENERGY SHOCKER

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FULL REPORT

NOVEMBER MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (732 Pages)

Intermediate-Term Top is likely to be put in within the next 0 days

Expect the Long-Term Top by Late Q3 2015

Last month we thought the Intermediate Top was in and were waiting on confirmation. It turns out it wasn't in the S&P 500 and DJIA. We advised to wait for confirmation and watch the following signals (though clearly Intermedaite tops are confimred in most global markets).

The signals to watch CONTINUE TO BE:

1. A "Death" Crosses in the 50, 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages (DMAs),
2. A curl in our Monthly S&P 500 Primary Trend Chart,
3. Deteriorating Credit Markets outside of the already failing HY,
4. Increasing event & headline risk events.

We achieved a 9% correction on our 8% projection. We now expect markets to generally hold there highs until the new year. We expect Q1 TAX DEFERRAL SELLING BEFORE the rise continues. We expect the outside long term strength of our "M" top to complete in late Q3 2015.

CONCLUSIONS

• BUYBACKS ARE STALLING,
• FED IS NOW PLAYING AN OPTIONS GAME (To Control Market Volatility),
• GLOBAL ECONOMY & MARKETS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE,
• EVERYONE IS ON THE SAME SIDE OF THE BOAT WITH EXCESS CONFIDENCE AND COMPLACENCY.

NOVEMBER Edition Release - Monday November 16th, 2014

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NOVEMBER AUDIO

IS THE FED "PAINTNG THE TAPE"?

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OCTOBER MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (732 Pages)

Intermediate-Term Top is likely now in (though not confirmed)

Expect the Long-Term Top by Mid 2015

We believe the Intermediate Top is now in and our long discussed "M" Top is now underway. We have already seen a 4.8% correction but expect to see 8% before this corrective / consolidation is over in late OCtober early November. The signals to watch CONTINUE TO BE:

1. A "Death" Crosses in the 50, 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages (DMAs),
2. A curl in our Monthly S&P 500 Primary Trend Chart,
3. Deteriorating Credit Markets outside of the already failing HY,
4. Increasing event & headline risk events.



CONCLUSIONS

• BUYBACKS ARE STALLING,
• FED IS NOW PLAYING AN OPTION GAME (To Control MArket Volatility),
• GLOBAL ECONOMY CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE,
• EVERYONE IS ON THE SAME SIDE OF THE BOAT

OCTOBER Edition Release - Saturday October 11th, 2014

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SEPTEMBER MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (473 Pages)

Intermediate-Term Top is likely now in (though not confirmed)

Expect the Long-Term Top by Mid 2015

We believe the Intermediate Top is now in and our long discussed "M" Top is now underway. Our expectations presently are for either a 5% or 8% corrective / consolidation. The signals to watch for are:

1. A "Death" Crosses in the 50, 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages (DMAs),
2. A curl in our Monthly S&P 500 Primary Trend Chart,
3. Deteriorating Credit Markets outside of the already failing HY,
4. Increasing event & headline risk events.

CONCLUSIONS

• BUYBACKS ARE STALLING,
• FED IS NOW PLAYING AN OPTION GAME (To Control MArket Volatility),
• GLOBAL ECONOMY CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE,
• EVERYONE IS ON THE SAME SIDE OF THE BOAT

SEPTEMBER Edition Release - Monday September 15th, 2014

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WHAT MARKET EXTREMES LOOK LIKE

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AUGUST MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (361 Pages)

Intermediate-Term Top is now in.

Expect the Long-Term Top by Mid 2015

We believe the Intermediate Top is now in and our long discussed "M" Top is now underway. Our expectations are for either a 6% or 12-15% correction. The signals to watch for to know which are:

1. A "Death" Crosses in the 50, 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages (DMAs),
2. A curl in our Monthly S&P 500 Primary Trend Chart,
3. Deteriorating Credit Markets outside of the already failing HY,
4. Increasing event & headline risk events.

We feel the Long Term topping process of this classic megaphone top (often present in Major Tops) will take the shape of a "M" top for the following reasons:

INTERNAL STRENGTH

1. Deflationary Pressures increasing due to NPL (Non-Performing Loans),
2. Collateral shortages to turn credit into debt,
3. A Tapped out US consumer in a 70% consumption economy
4. Shrinking Real Disposable income

EXTERNAL STRENGTH

1. We are moving towards the fourth wave of a four wave credit cycle,
2. We anticipate a von Mises type "Crack-up Boom" as a flight to safety away from paper assets,
3. The tax incented Buyback momentum to mutate to an M&A boom as stocks are reissued as buying currency.

We will give the podium to Fred Hickey, aka the High-Tech Strategist, who gives a very poetic summary of what the Fed's endgame will look like:

"The Fed hasn't made the world a better place with its interventions. It has created

1. Moral Hazard,
2. Encouraged the formation of asset bubbles that eventually pop (leaving economic messes),
3. Widened the wealth inequality gap to record levels,
4. Discouraged savings and investment,
5. Severely penalized retirees on fixed incomes,
6. Encouraged spending,
7. Funded massive government deficit spending by monetizing the debts,
8. Lengthened the recession and likely reduced the number of jobs that would have been created if the economy had been allowed to take its normal course.
9. Eventually the Fed's policy interventions will also have created debilitating, widespread consumer inflation, the "cruelest tax" against the poor and middle classes"

The only solution the Fed KNOW and WILL carry out is to print even more money. The problems above are going to soon destroy the Fed's credibility forcing it into even more desperate acts leading to a von Mises Crack-Up Boom, which will accelerate in a Flight to Safety (the hard brick and mortar assets of dividend and cash flow producing blue chip globalist players).

AUGUST Edition Release - Sunday August 17th, 2014

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AUGUST AUDIO

"M" TOP UNDERWAY

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JULY MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (335 Pages)

Expect an Intermediate-Term Top in Q3 2014

& A Long-Term Top by Mid 2015

By almost any measure the equity markets are historically over extended and are at levels that have ALWAYS resulted in serious corrections. But this time it is different!

Don’t get me wrong, the markets are going to experience a near term scare, but nowhere near what should occur because of unprecedented changes to the markets that have gone almost unnoticed..

CRITICAL CHANGES

1. $2T in Corporate Buybacks has occurred or is estimated to occur in 2013 and 2014 due to what is the biggest tax loophole in corporate history.
2. There is a shortage of available stock as central banks and 400 public institutions are now buying stock and reportedly hold over $29T in trading stock assets.
3. The Federal Reserve has slyly engineered over $150B of potential liquidity injections via Reverse Repos to be able to stop any serious collapse in equity or bond prices and their collateral values.

This does not mean the markets won’t correct! The Central Banks actually want this on a controlled basis to drive bond prices up (and most importantly, yields down) as 10,000 baby boomers in the US alone retire per day. Retirees are increasingly stopping payments of mandatory entitlement expenses and are now starting to collect them. Additionally, as they stop contributing to their separate private retirement assets, they are starting to draw them down.

The Fed has successfully engineered a massive increase in the wealth effect, but now must engineer a controlled bond rotation. Anything can go wrong in such as undertaking. Stock yields are now so poor that even dismal bond yields appear attractive and relatively safer. If anyone yells ‘fire’ in this crowded room and we will have panic bond buying. The last time occurred in 2007, nominal yields on T-Bills went negative as people paid for safety.

JULY Edition Release - Sunday July 13th, 2014

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JUNE MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (335 Pages)

Expect an Intermediate-Term Top by July 2014

& A Long-Term Top by Mid 2015

Our research indicates that liquidity flows turn negative in the Q3 2014 but are still positive in Q2.

Though Risk and Fundamentals signal a major market correction, we anticpate marginally more strength in Q2 before experiencing a turbulent consolidation period in global markets in Q3 and early Q4 2014.

We continue to expect markets to rally after the fall elections into first half 2015 before putting in a Long Term Top. This outlook is premised on continued liquidity expansion through central bank balance sheet expansion and easy credit.

JUNE Edition Release - Saturday June 14th, 2014

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Tops Are A Process

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MAY MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (547 Pages)

Expect an Intermediate-Term Top in Early Q2 2014

& A Long-Term Top in Early 2015

(NOTE: Only if Yellen & the Global Central Banks act in the coordinated "Liquidity Pumping" fashion we anticipate.)

Our research indicates that liquidity flows turn negative in the Q3 2014 but are still positive in Q2.

Though Risk and Fundamentals signal a major market correction, we anticpate marginally more strength in Q2 before experiencing a turbulent consolidation period in global markets in Q3 and early Q4 2014.

We continue to expect markets to rally after the fall elections into first half 2015 before putting in a Long Term Top. This outlook is premised on continued liquidity expansion through central bank balance sheet expansion and easy credit.

MAY Edition Release - Friday May 9th, 2014

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MISPRICED RISK: Credit Cracks Appearing

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APRIL MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (438 Pages)

Expect an Intermediate-Term Top in Early Q2 2014

& A Long-Term Top in Early 2015

(NOTE: Only if Yellen & the Global Central Banks act in the coordinated "Liquidity Pumping" fashion we anticipate.)

Our research indicates that liquidity flows turn negative in the Q3 2014 but are still positive in Q2.

Though Risk and Fundamentals signal a major market correction, we anticpate marginally more strength in Q2 before experiencing a turbulent consolidation period in global markets in Q3 and early Q4 2014.

We continue to expect markets to rally after the fall elections into first half 2015 before putting in a Long Term Top. This outlook is premised on continued liquidity expansion through central bank balance sheet expansion and easy credit.

APRIL Edition Release - Thursday April 10th, 2014

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MARCH MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (236 Pages)

Expect an Intermediate-Term Top in Early Q2 2014

& A Long-Term Top in Early 2015

(NOTE: Only if Yellen & the Global Central Banks act in the coordinated "Liquidity Pumping" fashion we anticipate.)

There is mounting evidence that the financial markets are in the early stages of a von Misess "Crackup Boom" in global equity asset prices. Though we expect to see new market highs by Q2 2014, based on a Globally Coordinated Central Bank Monetary intervention, the Crackup Boom will not continue until a Mid Term Election Year Real Deflation scare pushes markets lower. We expect a final new equity market high in early 2015.

To-date global central banks have not been officially coordinating their monetary actions. However, the global economy is rapidly slowing and the US is likely in or very near a recession (using real economic numbers). China and the Emerging Markets now accounjt for over 50% of global GDP and the realization of the seriousness of their slowdown will soon force central bank action when this eventuality begins to scare the markets and collateral values become impaired.

MARCH Edition Release - Thursday March 13th, 2014

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SELL IN MAY & GO AWAY?

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FEBRUARY MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (267 Pages)

Expect an Intermediate-Term Top in Early Q2 2014

& A Long-Term Top in Early 2015

(ONLY IF Yellen & the Global Central Banks act in the coordinated "Liquidity Pumping" fashion we anticpate.)

January witnessed the markets begin correcting after the forecasted Santa Claus Rally, precisely inline with out post January 14th, 2014 Macro Trigger$ Zone expectations.

There is mounting evidence that the financial markets are in the early stages of a von Misess "Crackup Boom" in global equity asset prices. Though we expect to see new market highs by Q2 2014, based on a Globally Coordinated Central Bank Monetary intervention, the Crackup Boom will not continue until a Mid Term Election Year Real Defaltion scare pushes markets lower. We expect a final new equity market high in early 2015.

To-date global central banks have not been officially coordinating their monetary actions. However, the global economy is rapidly slowing and the US is likely in or very near a recession (using real economic numbers). China and the Emerging Markets now accounjt for over 50% of global GDP and the realization of the seriousness of their slowdown will soon force central bank action when this eventuality begins to scare the markets and collateral vlaues become impaired.

FEBRUARY Edition Release - Tuesday February 11th, 2014

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TAPER TANTRUM

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JANUARY 2014

ANNUAL THESIS REPORT

THE GLOBALIZATION TRAP

JANUARY 2014 Edition Release - January 15th, 2014

ANNUAL THESIS

FULL REPORT

DECEMBER MONTHLY ANALYTICS & TECHNCIAL ANALYSIS - (571 Pages)

MAJOR INTERMEDIATE TOP LIKELY IN

Expect the Long-Term Top in Early Q2 2014

(IF Yellen & Central Banks act in the coordinated manner which we are presently anticpating.

December has witnessed the markets begin to stall, inline with out Macro Trigger$ Zone expectations. After weakeness into the Dcember FOMC Meeting, we expect a Year End "Santa Claus" Rally.

The Washington Budget resolution can be best summarized as a complete sell-out and "Can-Kicking". It is the worst possible solution which addresses none of the issues. It tells us that Washington is now acutely aware of the manitude of the global slowdown and how further Washington wrangling will only worsen an already serious problem.

There is mounting evidence that the financial markets are in the beginning stages of a von Misess "Crackup Boom" in equity asset prices. We expect to see new market highs by Q2 2014 based on a Globally Coordinated Central Bank Monetary intervention. To-date they have not been officially coordinated. The global economy is rapidly slowing and the US is likely in or very near a recession (using real economic numbers). The realization of a potential US recession will soon force central bank action as this eventuality begins to scares the markets.

DECEMBER Edition Release - Saturday December 14th, 2013

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