MARCH 2016: GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINT - (Subscription Plan III)

CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION COMING! - Too Many Cracks to Allow Much Further Delay

Large cracks are appearing in the global economc fabric across the global. The seriousness of the problems are such that Central Bank Governors are being forced to speak out in a manner that they are not accustoimed to doing. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is out with a stark warning on the ramifications of slowing global growth as is past BOE Governor Mervyn King saying the Eurozone is on a doomed course , just as Brits contemplate Brexit which if it occurs according to the G20 communique, would destabilize the global economy. At the completion of this G20 meeting of finance minsters in Singapore the German Finance Minister went forcibly on record as saying that the current expansive monetary policies have laid the foundation for the next economic crisis. Even a Chinese Finance official said the World Economy now needs a Fiscal Jolt. These and other warnings giving earlier this quarter by the IMF, BIS, OECD and World Bank are clear about the state of the current global economy. It seems everyone is warning because they see no agreemnts being reached on any coordinated planned actions. Only a global corrdinated central bank reponse will delay the coming crisis. The actions won't stop it - only delay the inevitability further.

• EU: Terrorism, an intractable refugee problem threatening the Schengen Agreement, slowing economies forcing NIRP and $9T in sovereign bonds trading at negative rates, an upcoming Brexit referendum, elections across the EU showing consistent anti government sentiment and now another banking crisis looming as fears of what is behind problems at Deutsche Bank un-nerve investors.
• CHINA: The credit crisis only gets worse as capital flees, markets fall and trade continues to slow. It is hard to see any other result other than a hard landing as China sell reserves at an unprecendented rate to shore up a weakening Yuan currency.
• JAPAN: Japan is clearly bankrupt and ABEnomic's desperate implementation of NIRP has the potential of destabilizing the Japanese financial system and possibly the reat of Asia. Tiem will tell but even BOJ Governor Kuroda seems unusally nervous.
• EMERGING MARKETS: Slowing trade, excess debt denominated in a strong US$, widening current account deficits and weakening currencies as capital continues to exit the Emerging Markets in what can only be described as a serious situation. Brazil is in the worst depression since 1901.

When the US is seen as the beacon of economic growth and itself is looking down the gun barrel of what surely looks like a recession in 2016, it doesn't bode well for any miracles being on the horizon.

These are just some of the reasons everyone is warning!

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FEBRUARY 2016: MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Subscription Plan II)

GLOBAL SLOWDOWN STEEPENING - Credit Cycle Is Reacting

Over the past few quarters our monthly reports have focused on the rapidly decaying fundamentals around the world. There is little doubt any longer of the degree of global slowdown we are experiencing, and the fact the US is now being impacted. I am already reading mainstream writers talking about a potential US recession in 2016. The purpose of the GMTP mission to warn early has been achieved. None of this should come as any surprise to our subscribers

It is time to shift our attention to what we now need to be focused on. That is what global events will dictate the seriousness of the outcome in 2016. Maybe more specifically, what will trigger the next round of central bank and government policy initiatives? We need not focus on the US, as it is going to be the "tail on the dog" reacting to events.

This chart of global reserves shows something quite startling. Reserves are not growing and in fact are shrinking! The same players who were the biggest builders of foreign reserves are now the ones falling the fastest. Who? China and the major (non US) Energy Exporters.

That is where we will look in this report.

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MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNO-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

FEBRUARY 2016 : MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - (Subscription Plan IV)

We have never seen the Credit Cycle turn before with this degree of asset over-valuations, leverage and financialization speculation on such a broad global basis. We have also in recent memory never seen it turn globally in such a synchronized manner. The global trade slowdown is clearly on the level of 2007 (if not worse) with no clear engine of economic growth to reverse this unparalleled perfect storm.

It is now finally acccepted by the analyst community that Quantitative Easing and ZIRP have been ineffective as the catalyst in creating economic growth. You can count on the central bankers and government to launch even more brazen and unproven policy responses in a futile attempt to hamper the deflation storm about to "slam" impaired assets and malinvestments. It is going to get ugly in 2016!

When banks start buying Gold and people are lined up to buy gold as recently reported in the UK, you know serious problems are on the horizon. Gold breaking through long term overhead resistance is something everyone should pay attention to this month. Energy and commodity prices cannot fall to the extent they have without significant global consequences, no matter how much Wall Street says it isn't important, as they unload.

If it isn't important then I ask, why is this occurring?

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