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"MELT-UP MONITOR " Meltup Monitor: FLOWS - The Currency Cartel Carry Cycle - 09 Dec 2013 Meltup Monitor: FLOWS - Liquidity, Credit & Debt - 04 Dec 2013 Meltup Monitor: Euro Pressure Going Critical - 28- Nov 2013 Meltup Monitor: A Regression-to-the-Exponential Mean Required - 25 Nov 2013
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"SULTANS OF SWAP" archives open ACT II ACT III ALSO Sultans of Swap: Fearing the Gearing! Sultans of Swap: BP Potentially More Devistating than Lehman! |
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Tue. May 5th, 2015
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KEY TO TIPPING POINTS |
| 1- Bond Bubble |
| 2 - Risk Reversal |
| 3 - Geo-Political Event |
| 4 - China Hard Landing |
| 5 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral |
| 6- EU Banking Crisis |
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| 7- Sovereign Debt Crisis |
| 8 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate |
| 9 - Chronic Unemployment |
| 10 - US Stock Market Valuations |
| 11 - Global Governance Failure |
| 12 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances |
| 13 - Growing Social Unrest |
| 14 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II |
| 15 - Commercial Real Estate |
| 16 - Credit Contraction II |
| 17- State & Local Government |
| 18 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales |
| 19 - US Reserve Currency |
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| 20 - US Dollar Weakness |
| 21 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration |
| 22 - US Banking Crisis II |
| 23 - China - Japan Regional Conflict |
| 24 - Corruption |
| 25 - Public Sentiment & Confidence |
| 26 - Food Price Pressures |
| 27 - Global Output Gap |
| 28 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis |
| 29 - Central & Eastern Europe |
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| 30 - Terrorist Event |
| 31 - Pandemic / Epidemic | 32 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures |
| 33 - Resource Shortage |
| 34 - Cyber Attack or Complexity Failure |
| 35 - Corporate Bankruptcies |
| 36 - Iran Nuclear Threat |
| 37- Finance & Insurance Balance Sheet Write-Offs |
| 38- Government Backstop Insurance |
| 39 - Oil Price Pressures |
| 40 - Natural Physical Disaster |
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TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS
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Scroll TWEETS for LATEST Analysis ![]()
HOTTEST TIPPING POINTS |
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We post throughout the day as we do our Investment Research for: LONGWave - UnderTheLens - Macro |
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Posting Date |
Labels & Tags | TIPPING POINT or THEME / THESIS or INVESTMENT INSIGHT |
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MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES TODAY � |
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GLOBAL RISK - World Economic Forum CURIOUS SIGHTINGS! Same Old Lessons Published 05-02-15 THE "WANNA GET RICH QUICK" CROWD In the old days you knew a market top was at hand when your local barber starting giving you stock tips. In our global market it is different as new people discover trading (and will soon learn some old lessons) .... It appears US barbers are too smart, too broke and too afraid of no pension income to fall for this trap again. �
� MEANWHILE THE GOLDMAN SACHS "NOUVEAU RICH" BANKERS COULDN'T FIND PARKING SATURDAY The rich discovered a new problem Saturday! They can't find parking spaces for their tax deductible private jets during their weekend "boon doogles" FINDING PARKING FOR THE SATURDAY "KENTUCKY DERBY" FIGHT AT THE VEGAS AIRPORT WAS IMPOSSIBLE!
SO WAS FINDING PARKING SATURDAY FOR THE MAYWEATHER-PACQUUIAO" FIGH AT THE VEGAS AIRPORT
Some had EVEN MORE serious problems. Tom Brady attended BOTH events Saturday?? No wonder they call him Tom Terrific! THE REST OF US SIMPLY TRIED TO AVOID THE INEQUALITY RIOTS AND RALLIES Rallies in Baltimore have spread to more than 20 US cities
� GOD BLESS AMERICA!!! LAND OF THE FREE?
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05-05-15 | THEMES INEQUALITY � US PUBLIC POLICY |
13 - Growing Social Unrest | |
| MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - May 2nd, 2015 - May. 9th, 2015 | � | � | � | |
| BOND BUBBLE | � | � | 1 | |
| RISK REVERSAL - WOULD BE MARKED BY: Slowing Momentum, Weakening Earnings, Falling Estimates | � | � | 2 | |
| GEO-POLITICAL EVENT | � | � | 3 | |
| CHINA BUBBLE | � | � | 4 | |
| JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION | � | � | 5 | |
EU BANKING CRISIS |
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| MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week | ||||
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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| CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES | � | � | � | |
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| Market | ||||
| TECHNICALS & MARKET | � |
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| COMMODITY CORNER - AGRI-COMPLEX | � | PORTFOLIO | � | |
| SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX | � | PORTFOLIO | � | |
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| THESIS - Mondays Posts on Financial Repression & Posts on Thursday as Key Updates Occur | ||||
| 2015 - FIDUCIARY FAILURE | 2015 | THESIS 2015 | ![]() |
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| 2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP | 2014 | ![]() |
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2013 2014 |
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CUSTODIAL RISK- There is Counterparty Risk PLUS Custodial Risk QUESTION TO ANSWER: What do you really own when you buy an investment? In our complex financial world of securities, derivatives, counterparty agreement and rehypothecation of the collateral of assets under management virtually no one has the actual physical share certificates of stocks or other assets held by their custodial financial investment firm. "Custody Risk is one of the biggest, most important issues to consider if you want to maintain your wealth when the next round of systemic risk hits!" Graham Summers - Phoenix Capital TWO PROBLEMS 1- CUSTODIANS OFTEN DON'T KNOW WHERE YOUR ASSETS ARE HELD The SEC recently performed a study of some 400 investment advisor firms. As the SEC itself stated in its report - approximately one-third (140) failed to meet custody rule requirements. What this says is custodians don't know where their clients funds are! Many didn't even know they themselves were legal custodians of their clients funds! 2- YOUR ASSETS WILL LIEKLY BE FROZEN WHEN YOU NEED THEM MOST Even if an appropriate legal framework is in place to eliminate the risk of loss of value of the securities held by the custodian in the event of its failure, it can take weeks or even months to transfer the securities to new custodians. During that time, you cannot close out open positions .. they are effectively frozen. In the case of MF Global, some investors were locked out of their accounts and couldn't trade their positions for weeks. As a result many of them incurred massive losses. � � |
05-04-15 | THESIS | ||
2011 2012 2013 2014 |
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| THEMES - Normally a Thursday Themes Post & a Friday Flows Post | ||||
I - POLITICAL |
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| CENTRAL PLANNING - SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER - STATISM | G | THEME | � | |
| - - CORPORATOCRACY - CRONY CAPITALSIM | � | THEME | ![]() |
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- - CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE - MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION, SHORTAGES. |
� | THEME | ![]() |
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| - - SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - STATISM | M | THEME | � | |
| - - CATALYSTS - FEAR (POLITICALLY) & GREED (FINANCIALLY) | G | THEME | � | |
II-ECONOMIC |
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| GLOBAL RISK | � | � | � | |
| - GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY | G | THEME | � | |
| - - SOCIAL UNREST - INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT | US | THEME | � | |
| - - ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM | M | THEME | � | |
| - -GLOBAL GROWTH & JOBS CRISIS | � | � | � | |
| - - - PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX - NATURE OF WORK | � | THEME | MACRO w/ CHS |
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| - - - STANDARD OF LIVING - EMPLOYMENT CRISIS, SUB-PRIME ECONOMY | US | THEME | MACRO w/ CHS |
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III-FINANCIAL |
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| FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS | MATA RISK ON-OFF |
THEME | ||
| CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE | � | THEME | � | |
| SHADOW BANKING - LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE | M | THEME | � | |
| GENERAL INTEREST | � |
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| STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - Weekend Coverage | ||||
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