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Regular Co-Host: CHARLES HUGH SMITH , Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com

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LOOMING US RETAIL IMPLOSION:

A Required Re-Think!

with Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

25 Minutes, 25 Slides

There is a looming US Retail implosion on the horizon and a complete re-think of the foundation of a 70% US Consumption Economy is urgently required. For thirty years analysts have predicted the demise of the US consumer. They were so consistently wrong that the mantra "Don't Bet Against the US Consumer" became a staple of investor wisdom, similar in reliability to "Don't Fight the Fed!".

The US Consumer as the engine of global growth has powering global credit creation and expansion as a result of the corresponding growth in US deficits . Now at 70% of the US economy, as compared to 50-55% for other developed economies and less than 35% for emerging economies, the question is no longer a matter of is it sustainable, but rather what will be the fallout now the inevitable has finally arrived?

It is clear the US consumer is tapped out a result of the US middle class being 'gutted' with job lose, low salaries, exploding healthcare & educations costs and pensions now an endangered species. However, our Monetary, Fiscal and Public Policies are only making matters worse.

Charles Hugh Smith spells out his concept of "DeGROWTH" and its key characteristics which challenges our consumer centric, materialistic notions for sustainable growth.

Whether you agree with Charles or not, it is important to see the road we are presently on is unsustainable and an urgent 're-think' is required.

Spending $Trillions the US does not have to foster growth through consumption, may be better spent on a more productive public-fiscal-monetary policy direction.

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SPECIAL GUEST: RICHARD DUNCAN , Economist, Author & Publisher of RichardDuncanEconomics.com.com

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ABOUT RICHARD DUNCAN

Richard Duncan is the publisher of Macro Watch, a video-newsletter that analyzes trends in credit growth, liquidity and government policy in order to anticipate their impact on asset prices and economic growth.

He is also the author of three books on the global economic crisis.  The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (2003); The Corruption of Capitalism (2009); and, The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (2012).

Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok.  He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis.

Richard has appeared frequently on CNBC, CNN, BBC and Bloomberg Television, as well as on BBC World Service Radio.

Macro Watch can be found on Richard’s website: http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/

THE NEW DEPRESSION

& CORRUPTION OF CAPITALISM

SPECIAL GUEST:

Richard Duncan

41 Minutes, 37 Slides

Since 1968 Money has become irrelevant. Forget M1,M2, M3 MZM etc. What matters now is CREDIT. We are in an uncharted era of Creditism.

• Under Capitalism, the economic growth dynamic was driven by Investment and Savings.
• Under Creditism, it is driven by Credit Creation and Consumption.
• Creditism has created unprecedented prosperity around the world, but…
• It’s on the verge of collapse because the private sector cannot bear any more debt.

The Austrian economists believed that economic cycles are driven by credit expansion; andthat economic booms end in depressions when the credit ceases to expand. They were right!

With the clear thinking of a trained lawyer, Michael Snyder in four articles in Part I points out the startling realities of what is shaping our world. In Part II Michael ties these together with his views and interpretations. His conclusions fit very well within the Globalization Trap Model developed by GordonTLong.com.

POLICY RESPONSES: Designed to Prevent Total Credit Frfom Contracting

• Because if credit contracts significantly, there will be a Depression.
• Milton Friedman taught Ben Bernanke that the Fed could have prevented the Great Depression if the Fed had prevented the Money Supply from contraction.
• Credit is the new Money.
• That belief is driving Fed policy!

In This Age of Fiat MoneyInvestors Must:

1. Monitor Credit Growth and government policies that affect credit growth. Any development that slows credit growth will harm the economy.
2. Monitor Liquidity, i.e. the balance between the demand for and the supply of paper money. If the US budget deficit (demand) is less than the size of QE and the US Current Account deficit combined (supply), liquidity conditions will be favorable and asset prices will tend to rise.

 

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SPECIAL GUEST HOST: Andrew Joseph , Principal of GoldenPhi & Publisher Triggers.ca

The MACRO ANALYTICS: A Technical Update

GoldenPhi & Gordon T Long

30 Minutes, 42 Slides

The Technical Analysis of the S&P 500, key Currency Cross Drivers, Gold and Oil are discussed in this comprehensive 30 minute video presentation with 42 updated supporting graphics.

EQUITY MARKET REQUIRE CORRECTIVE / CONSOLIDATION BEFORE ADVANCING FURTHER

The US equity market and especially the EU STOXX, presently require a corrective consolidation to find support before advancing further into a Santa Claus Rally. Bradley Turn dates, Hindenburg Omen expiration, Phi Clusters, Technical Divergences and Earnings are all suggestive of such an event.

VOLATILITY TO BE THE STORY IN 2014

Expect significant volatility increases going into early 2014 as Central Bank liquidity injections, constricted credit flows and deteriorating fundamentals spar for control. The Global Macro calendar signals events that are highly likely to trigger gyrations in RISK-ON and RISK-OFF trade in Currency and Bond Markets beginning in Q4 2013 and dominating in 2014.

Equity market participants are likely to feel like the "flee on a dog's tail" during this period of ongoing global realignments.

CURRENCY MARKETS NEAR INFLECTION POINTS

Seldom do the Currency Crosses which GordonTLong.com and Triggers.ca follow align with such clear Trigger$. The charts laid out in this video suggest a strong probability of an important Currency Market adjustment is approaching rapidly.

The Credit Markets as usually lead the way and are siganling that the adjustments are beginning around our November 3rd Bradley turn date.

 

VIDEO VERSION

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Regular Co-Host: Ty Andros , President, Traderview, Author & Publisher ofTedbits Web Site & Newsletter

Special Guest: Bert Dohmen , is president and founder of Dohmen Capital Research Institute, Inc.(DCRI). He has achieved an international reputation for his expertise in forecasting the major investment markets, interest rates, and economic trends.

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DOW 20,000?

PART III

SPECIAL GUEST: BERT DOHMEN

Publisher of the Wellington Letter

with Ty Andros & Gordon T Long

17 Minutes, 40 Slides

In Part IV of this series with expert market watchers, we ask long time market followers Bert Dohmen and Ty Andros whether DOW 20,000 is directly ahead or DOW 5,000 ..... and when?

Both Bert Dohmen and Ty Andros firmly believe the financial markets are only being artificially held up by liquidity and credit flows and the market has become disconnected from economic and financial reality. Both cite when companies like Amazon make no profits and no one cares, it reminds both experienced investors of 1999, prior to the Dot.com bubble imploding. Through the use of 40 slides they share their thoughtful insights and experiences.

BERT DOHMEN

Bert is as bearish for 2014 as he was prior to his profitable 2008 financial crisis call, for many similar reasons. He is somewhat optimistic near term that the markets will hold up through year end, but after that investors should be prepared for the worst.

Supporting his conclusions is the steady fall in consumer consumption and spending which he sees as presently getting worse. Consumer spending slowdowns usually precede market drops and it peaked in the US in May of this year. The steadily deteriorating growth in US real personal income no longer supports the current profit expectations and is presently only being camouflaged by Federal Reserve and PPT intervention.

TY ANDROS

Ty is extremely bearish and believes there is a major market market move down on the horizon, most likely by late 2014. He fully expects markets at that juncture to fall below the 2008 lows. Of his many concerns, ranging from Dodd-Frank and Obamacare to Janet Yellen's "Tobin" direction, he points out to listeners the Wolf Wave in profit margins which helped him successfully navigate around the the 2008 crisis.

These are two well seasoned investors who both called the 2008 Crisis. Seldom have they been this bearish though both say these artificial liquidity addicted markets could keep going for awhile longer. They both share what investors should be doing now in preparation for their outlooks.

Listen to other experts weigh in:

• Part I with Lance Roberts ,
• Part II with Charles Hugh Smith,
• Part III with John Rubino

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SPECIAL GUEST HOST: JOHN RUBINO, Author & Publisher of DollarCollapse.com

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DOW 20,000?

PART III

John Rubino & Gordon T Long

22 Minutes, 31 Slides

In Part III of this series we ask John Rubino whether DOW 20,000 is directly ahead or DOW 5,000, and when?

John believes we are at a critical inflection point with two powerful forces competing. Whether Central Bank liquidity and credit expansion wins, or the realities of the economic and financial fundamentals, only time will tell us for sure.

FINANCIAL LEVERAGE

The magnitude of financial leverage is now greater than levels during the 2000 Dot-com bubble and near pre-financial crisis highs. When calculated on a credit balance basis it is significantly worse than the 2008 Financial Crisis.

SIGNS OF ZIMBABWE & VENEZUELA BEHAVIOR ARE EVIDENT

Signs of Zimbabwe and Venezuela central bank policy approaches are creeping into the developed world as pressures are applied to sustain a now tepid and failing economic recovery. After 4 years of relentless liquidity injections the options are becoming limited and the road appears to lead towards a classic von Mises crackup boom in equities.

CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY EXPANSION

The answer to the riddle may possibly be found in what the Fed will ultimately be FORCED to do.

Listen to Part I with Lance Roberts and Part II with Charles Hugh Smith

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