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"MELT-UP MONITOR " Meltup Monitor: FLOWS - The Currency Cartel Carry Cycle - 09 Dec 2013 Meltup Monitor: FLOWS - Liquidity, Credit & Debt - 04 Dec 2013 Meltup Monitor: Euro Pressure Going Critical - 28- Nov 2013 Meltup Monitor: A Regression-to-the-Exponential Mean Required - 25 Nov 2013
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KEY TO TIPPING POINTS |
| 1- Bond Bubble |
| 2 - Risk Reversal |
| 3 - Geo-Political Event |
| 4 - China Hard Landing |
| 5 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral |
| 6- EU Banking Crisis |
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| 7- Sovereign Debt Crisis |
| 8 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate |
| 9 - Chronic Unemployment |
| 10 - US Stock Market Valuations |
| 11 - Global Governance Failure |
| 12 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances |
| 13 - Growing Social Unrest |
| 14 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II |
| 15 - Commercial Real Estate |
| 16 - Credit Contraction II |
| 17- State & Local Government |
| 18 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales |
| 19 - US Reserve Currency |
| NEW - Stagflation - Slow Growth & Personal Inflation |
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| 20 - US Dollar |
| 21 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration |
| 22 - US Banking Crisis II |
| 23 - China - Japan Regional Conflict |
| 24 - Poorly Regulated Corruption |
| 25 - Public Sentiment & Confidence |
| 26 - Food Price Pressures |
| 27 - Global Output Gap |
| 28 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis |
| 29 - Central & Eastern Europe |
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| 30 - Terrorist Event |
| 31 - Pandemic / Epidemic |
| 32 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures |
| 33 - Resource Shortage |
| 34 - Cyber Attack or Complexity Failure |
| 35 - Corporate Bankruptcies |
| 36 - Iran Nuclear Threat |
| 37- Finance & Insurance Balance Sheet Write-Offs |
| 38- Government Backstop Insurance |
| 39 - Oil Price Pressures |
| 40 - Natural Physical Disaster |
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"BEST OF THE WEEK " MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES TODAY � |
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| - - - STANDARD OF LIVING - EMPLOYMENT CRISIS, SUB-PRIME ECONOMY | US | THEME | MA w/ CHS |
� 19 Signs That American Families Are Being Economically DestroyedVia Michael Snyder's Economic Collapse blog, The systematic destruction of the American way of life is happening all around us, and yet most people have no idea what is happening.� Once upon a time in America, if you were responsible and hard working you could get a good paying job that could support a middle class lifestyle for an entire family even if you only had a high school education.� Things weren’t perfect, but generally almost everyone in the entire country was able to take care of themselves without government assistance.� We worked hard, we played hard, and our seemingly boundless prosperity was the envy of the entire planet.� But over the past several decades things have completely changed. We consumed far more wealth than we produced, we shipped millions of good paying jobs overseas, we piled up the biggest mountain of debt in the history of the world, and we kept electing politicians that had absolutely no concern for the long-term future of this nation whatsoever.� So now good jobs are in very short supply, we are drowning in an ocean of red ink, the middle class is rapidly shrinking and dependence on the government is at an all-time high.� Even as we stand at the precipice of the next great economic crisis, we continue to make the same mistakes.� In the end, all of us are going to pay a very great price for decades of incredibly foolish decisions.� Of course a tremendous amount of damage has already been done.� The numbers that I am about to share with you are staggering.� The following are 19 signs that American families are being economically destroyed… #1 The poorest 40 percent of all Americans now spend more than 50 percent of their incomes just on food and housing. #2 For those Americans that don’t own a home, 50 percent of them spend more than a third of their incomes just on rent. #3 The price of school lunches has risen to the 3 dollar mark at many public schools across the nation. #4 McDonald’s “Dollar Menu & More” now includes items that cost as much as 5 dollars. #5 The price of ground beef has doubled since 2009. #6 In 1986, child care expenses for families with employed mothers used up 6.3 percent of all income.� Today, that figure is up to 7.2 percent. #7 Incomes fell for the bottom 80 percent of all income earners in the United States during the 12 months leading up to June 2014. #8 At this point, more than 50 percent of all American workers bring home less than $30,000 a year in wages. #9 After adjusting for inflation, median household income has fallen by nearly $5,000 since 2007. #10 According to the New York Times, the “typical American household” is now worth 36 percent less than it was worth a decade ago. #11 47 percent of all Americans do not put a single penny out of their paychecks into savings. #12 One survey found that 62 percent of all Americans are currently living paycheck to paycheck. #13 According to the U.S. Department of Education, 33 percent of all Americans with student loans are currently behind on their student loan debt repayments. #14 According to one recent report, 43 million Americans currently have unpaid medical debt on their credit reports. #15 The rate of homeownership in the U.S. has been declining for seven years in a row, and it is now the lowest that it has been in 20 years. #16 For each of the past six years, more businesses have closed in the United States than have opened.� Prior to 2008, this had never happened before in all of U.S. history. #17 According to the Census Bureau, 65 percent of all children in the United States are living in a home that receives some form of aid from the federal government. #18 If you have no debt at all, and you also have 10 dollars in your wallet, that you are wealthier than 25 percent of all Americans. #19 On top of everything else, the average American must work from January 1st to April 24th just to pay all federal, state and local taxes. All of us know people that once were doing quite well but that are now just struggling to get by from month to month. Perhaps this has happened to you. If you have ever been in that position, you probably remember what it feels like to have people look down on you.� Unfortunately, in our society the value that we place on individuals has a tremendous amount to do with how much money they have. So if you don’t have much money, there are a lot of people out there that will treat you like dirt.� The following excerpt comes from a Washington Post article entitled “The poor are treated like criminals everywhere, even at the grocery store“…
Have you ever seen this? Have you ever experienced this yourself? These days, most people on food stamps are not in that situation because they want to be.� Rather, they are victims of our long-term economic collapse. And this is just the beginning.� When the next major economic crisis strikes, the suffering in this country is going to go to unprecedented levels. As we enter that time, we are going to need a whole lot more love and compassion than we are exhibiting right now. As a nation, we have made decades of incredibly bad decisions.� As a result, we are experiencing bad consequences which are going to become increasingly more severe. The numbers that I just shared with you are not good.� But over the next several years they are going to get a whole lot worse. Everything that can be shaken will be shaken, and life in America is about to change in a major way. |
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TIPPING POINTS, STUDIES, THESIS, THEMES & SII COVERAGE THIS WEEK PREVIOUSLY POSTED - (BELOW) |
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| MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - Apr 11th, 2016 to April 16th, 2016 | � | � | � |
| TIPPING POINTS - This Week - Normally a Tuesday Focus | |||
| BOND BUBBLE | � | � | 1 |
| RISK REVERSAL - WOULD BE MARKED BY: Slowing Momentum, Weakening Earnings, Falling Estimates | � | � | 2 |
| GEO-POLITICAL EVENT | � | � | 3 |
| CHINA BUBBLE | � | � | 4 |
| JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION | � | � | 5 |
EU BANKING CRISIS |
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8 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate |
04-12-16 | � | 8 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate |
� Supply Chain Slump"Worse Than The Great Recession"Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners, Not to continue beating a dead horse, but I have a stick and the carcass is right in front of me.�The entire supply chain inside the US economy is full agreement both on where the economy is right now and, perhaps more importantly, how it came to be that way.�Such harmony is not atypical, as synchronicity usually defines the hard edges of any cycle.�This, however, is something else entirely, especially as it stretches back years and confirms we are witnessing nothing like the usual. As it is, this latest part or phase or whatever has already taken up nearly two years.�In terms of wholesale sales, as noted�this morning, overall sales peaked in July 2014 – meaning�nineteen�months (thru Feb 2016) of deceleration into sustained contraction. Worse and what is probably the most concerning is that after those nineteen months inventory is only just now starting to correct, and it is doing so ever so gently. That suggests again slowdown without yet any visible end.�In that sense, recession might actually be the best case since it would greatly speed up the affair in at least the convergence and reversion of inventory to sales (though that would still leave questions about the economic trend after it). By comparison, the Great Recession featured just nine months of contraction; the whole of the dot-com recession twelve.�Those were both top to bottom, peak to trough, over and done with. In 2016, we are very likely facing�two years and still only the beginning�of reconciliation or balance, and no idea what that might mean further down in wider economic feedbacks and negative multipliers. The supply chain, top to bottom:
One other noteworthy interpretation:�to find the “goods economy” including the whole of the supply chain in such joined, steady dislocation cannot be anything but a negative comment on the whole of the economy, services included.�That starts with the fact that a significant portion (as much as half) of the “services economy” directly addresses the “goods economy” (retail, wholesale, transportation, etc.). Beyond that, if there is total breakdown in growth and advance in goods that can only mean a serious problem with US consumers. It has already forced economists and policymakers to completely abandon what was in late 2014 and early 2015 inarguable recovery and success. Just because it has not, so far, acted like recession does not propose a clean bill of health (just like it did not, last year, recommend this was all some temporary slump worthy of nothing but dismissal). Instead, that it has continued on for so long suggests quite the opposite, and, again, likely worse than just recession prospects in the long run. |
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| MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week | |||
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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James Rickards:“The only way every currency can get cheaper at the same time, is not against themselves, but against Gold!”James Rickards, Chief Global Strategist at West Shore Funds and a widely renowned author is interviewed by FRA Co-founder Gordon T. Long in which they discuss Jim’s just released book�The�New Case for Gold. They also delve into issues concerning the false perceptions of the world switching back to a Gold Standard and the reasons for a�suspected G-20 stealth “Shanghai Accord”. THE NEW CASE FOR GOLD James Rickards suggests that there is a new case for Gold and points out that everyone thinks that what they own currently, in terms of stocks, bonds and other financial securities, is actually only “electronic digits” representing claims on assets. The new reality of Cyber war and Cyber attack suggests the real possibility of a single group of people or political regime hacking U.S servers. The�potential exists today for investors to lose wealth�and there will be almost nothing any one can do to bring back that money, at least in any realistic period of time. Physical Gold cannot be hacked nor simply be erased from the world’s ledger. It is the most tangible and secure way of preserving wealth and James recommends a portfolio with at least 10% being allocated�to physical Gold. Being outside the system, and being non-digital are the two main reasons that smart investors�economists suggest will ensure having some sort of security for your wealth. Gold meets both these requirements and in the next big financial crisis will�provide you with insurance for the rest of your portfolio.
OUTSIDE THE BANKING SYSTEM –�The Best Kind if Insurance The financial system is inherently unstable based on:
Gold acts as an insurance policy no matter what happens:
Gold is always gold – It’s outside the banking system, can’t be reproduced by fiat, �It cannot be “hacked”.
Jim talks to FRA about methodically dispelling the decades old arguments and fallacies associated with going back to the Gold Standard. �He additionally dispels myths such as:
GOLD IS STILL A MONETARY ASSET & REAL MONEY Rickards feels that over 40 years of “un-education or mis-education” has resulted in the new generation of economists and youth�not understanding the importance or the value behind why gold is so important for our economy. �We cannot blame the new generation for this gap inn their knowledge. We have not been teaching Gold as money in university curriculum and along with myths created about gold have virtually disowning it from economic thinking.
Gold is the one form of monetary value that can’t fight back which is why they have completely stopped educating the U.S public on Gold as a whole. A POST MONETARY RESET –�Gold after the Next Crisis The current financial system is inherently unstable and may soon have to be reformed. Gold will play a prominent role, if that happens. The IMF is the third largest holder of official gold reserves after the United States. Gold is at the very center of international finance as the�International Monetary Fund (IMF)�with its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) reserve currency is regaining prominence. In addition, the current valuation of the SDR could�not be calculated without using gold,�even though one has to go back to the 1970s to�understand why. China is not only�acquiring vast quantities of physical gold, it is also going through the hassle of infiltrating the London gold market and simultaneously setting up its own clearing mechanism in Shanghai. Russia has boosted its gold to GDP ratio to 2.7 percent, higher than the United States percentage of 1.7 percent. All powers are acquiring gold to have some bargaining power when the international financial system will be reformed.
Why? After redistributing the official gold holdings and having monetized everything from bonds to stocks, the world’s governments and central banks won’t have a choice left other than to devalue paper money compared to gold, the same trick President Roosevelt used during the great depression and with the same objective of getting rid of an unsustainable debt burden. In a monetary reset, gold will be the chips that are used to play a game of poker. Russians, Chinese and even the Iranians are stock piling gold because of this fear. If Gold has a role in the future monetary system, Gold’s price has to go up. Gold cannot multiply at the alarming rate that we will need it for. But we can always increase the price which is why the current monetary system will fail in terms of Gold in the future and will still hold the parity between money supply and demand. James expects a price target of $10,000 for the future if this falls in line.
James new book�The New Case for Gold�is available in stores and online now and provides an in-depth analysis on the old and new reasons for why Gold is a necessity in our upcoming monetary system.� As always for more analysis and interviews follow us on twitter @FRAuthority or Subscribe to our YouTube channel, Financial Repression Authority for weekly interviews. Abstract Writer: Saad �Gohir �[email protected] Video Editor: Min Jung Kim�[email protected]
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I - POLITICAL |
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CENTRAL PLANNING - SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER - STATISM
MACRO MAP - EVOLVING ERA OF CENTRAL PLANNING � |
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CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE - MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION - RESENTMENT. |
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| - - SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - STATISM | G | THEME | � |
| - - CATALYSTS - FEAR (POLITICALLY) & GREED (FINANCIALLY) | G | THEME | � |
II-ECONOMIC |
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| - GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY | G | THEME | � |
| - - SOCIAL UNREST - INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT | US | THEME | � |
| - - ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM | M | THEME | � |
| - -GLOBAL GROWTH & JOBS CRISIS | � | � | � |
| - - - PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX - NATURE OF WORK | � | THEME | MA w/ CHS |
| � | 01-08-16 | THEME | MA w/ CHS |
| - - - STANDARD OF LIVING - EMPLOYMENT CRISIS, SUB-PRIME ECONOMY | US | THEME | MA w/ CHS |
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FLOWS - Capital, Liqudity & Credit Flows
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| CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE | 12-31-15 | THEME | � |
| SHADOW BANKING - LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE | M | THEME | � |
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| STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - Weekend Coverage | |||
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