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"MELT-UP MONITOR " Meltup Monitor: FLOWS - The Currency Cartel Carry Cycle - 09 Dec 2013 Meltup Monitor: FLOWS - Liquidity, Credit & Debt - 04 Dec 2013 Meltup Monitor: Euro Pressure Going Critical - 28- Nov 2013 Meltup Monitor: A Regression-to-the-Exponential Mean Required - 25 Nov 2013
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"SULTANS OF SWAP" archives open ACT II ACT III ALSO Sultans of Swap: Fearing the Gearing! Sultans of Swap: BP Potentially More Devistating than Lehman! |
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2014 THESIS: GLOBALIZATION TRAP
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185 Pages
What Are Tipping Poinits?
Understanding Abstraction & Synthesis
Global-Macro in Images:� Understanding the Conclusions
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| � | � | � | � | � |
| MARCH | ||||||
| S | M | T | W | T | F | S |
| � | � | � | � | � | � | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 | 31 | � | � | � | � | � |
KEY TO TIPPING POINTS |
| 1 - Risk Reversal |
| 2 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral |
| 3- Bond Bubble |
| 4- EU Banking Crisis |
| 5- Sovereign Debt Crisis |
| 6 - China Hard Landing |
| � |
| 7 - Chronic Unemployment |
| 8 - Geo-Political Event |
| 9 - Global Governance Failure |
| 10 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances |
| 11 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate |
| 12 - Iran Nuclear Threat |
| 13 - Growing Social Unrest |
| 14 - US Banking Crisis II |
| 15 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II |
| 16 - Commercial Real Estate |
| 17 - Credit Contraction II |
| 18- State & Local Government |
| 19 - US Stock Market Valuations |
| � |
| 20 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales |
| 21 - China - Japan Regional Conflict |
| 22 - Public Sentiment & Confidence |
| 23 - US Reserve Currency |
| 24 - Central & Eastern Europe |
| 25 - Oil Price Pressures | 26 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures |
| 27 - Food Price Pressures |
| 28 - Global Output Gap |
| 29 - Corruption |
| 30 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis |
| � |
| 31 - Corporate Bankruptcies |
| 32- Finance & Insurance Balance Sheet Write-Offs |
| 33 - Resource Shortage |
| 34 - US Reserve Currency |
| 35- Government Backstop Insurance |
| 36 - US Dollar Weakness |
| 37 - Cyber Attack or Complexity Failure |
| 38 - Terrorist Event |
| 39 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration |
| 40 - Natural Physical Disaster |
| 41 - Pandemic / Epidemic |
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Read More - OUR RESEARCH - Articles Below
HOTTEST TIPPING POINTS |
� | � | Theme Groupings |
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UKRAINE - The Unfolding Financial Battle
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"BEST OF THE WEEK " |
Posting Date |
Labels & Tags | TIPPING POINT or 2014 THESIS THEME |
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RISK - Reflexivity Suggests another Crash Is Inevitable Soros’s Reflexivity Suggests another Crash Is Inevitable 03-13-14 Chase Van Der Rhoer, Bloomberg Markets slumped on a toxic brew of headlines about the dismantling of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, writedowns from UniCredit, losses at Ceasars Entertainment and escalating tension between the West and the kremlin. Investment-grade corporates responded by widening 1 basis point with a 1:3 tightening to widening ratio, high yield widened 5 basis points with a 1:6 ratio and emerging markets widened 10 basis points with a 1:6 ratio. a market confronted with extreme complexity is obliged to resort to methods of simplification as George Soros points out in a paper entitled “Fallibility, Reflexivity, and the Human Uncertainty Principle.” He argues that interpreting the world, then acting upon that world, with both actions subject to great fallibility, creates a reflexive feedback loop that causes an escalat- ing probability of disaster. When the entanglement of flawed market expectations becomes large enough, Soros says, the market experiences a bust following predictable trends and stages. Echoing this analysis, stock analyst Tom Demark last year pointed to the similarity between the stock market trend that preceded the 1929 crash and the present day. The following two charts are examples of the boom-bust cycles overlaid with today’s equity market. |
03-17-14 | RISK CANARIIES | 1 - Risk Reversal | ||
PATTERNS - Beware When the Fed's Asset Quarterly (13 Wk) ROC Goes Negative FLOWS: Its the 2nd Derivative
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03-17-14 | FLOWS | |||
| MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - March 16th - March 22nd, 2014 | � | � | � | ||
| RISK REVERSAL | � | � | 1 | ||
| JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION | � | � | 2 | ||
| BOND BUBBLE | � | � | 3 | ||
EU BANKING CRISIS |
� | � | 4 |
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| SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] | � | � | 5 | ||
| CHINA BUBBLE | � | � | 6 | ||
| TO TOP | |||||
| � | |||||
| MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week | |||||
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
� | � | � | ||
| CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES | � | � | � | ||
| � | � | � | |||
| Market | |||||
| TECHNICALS & MARKET | � |
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| COMMODITY CORNER - HARD ASSETS | � | PORTFOLIO | � | ||
| COMMODITY CORNER - AGRI-COMPLEX | � | PORTFOLIO | � | ||
| SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX | � | PORTFOLIO | � | ||
| � | � | � | |||
| THESIS | |||||
| 2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP | 2014 | ![]() |
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2013 2014 |
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2011 2012 2013 2014 |
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| � | � | ||||
| THEMES | |||||
| FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS | � | THEME | |||
| SHADOW BANKING -LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE | � | THEME | � | ||
| CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE | � | THEME | � | ||
| ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM | � | THEME | � | ||
| PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX -NATURE OF WORK | � | THEME | � | ||
| STANDARD OF LIVING -EMPLOYMENT CRISIS | � | THEME | � | ||
| CORPORATOCRACY -CRONY CAPITALSIM | � | THEME | ![]() |
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CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE -MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION, SHORTAGES. |
� | THEME | ![]() |
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| SOCIAL UNREST -INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT | � | THEME | � | ||
| SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX -STATISM | � | THEME | � | ||
| GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY | � | THEME | � | ||
| CENTRAL PLANINNG -SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER | � | THEME | � | ||
| CATALYSTS -FEAR & GREED | � | THEME | � | ||
| GENERAL INTEREST | � |
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Tipping Points Life Cycle - Explained
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