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KEY TO TIPPING POINTS |
| 1- Bond Bubble |
| 2 - Risk Reversal |
| 3 - Geo-Political Event |
| 4 - China Hard Landing |
| 5 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral |
| 6- EU Banking Crisis |
| 7- Sovereign Debt Crisis |
| 8 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate |
| 9 - Chronic Unemployment |
| 10 - US Stock Market Valuations |
| 11 - Global Governance Failure |
| 12 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances |
| 13 - Growing Social Unrest |
| 14 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II |
| 15 - Commercial Real Estate |
| 16 - Credit Contraction II |
| 17- State & Local Government |
| 18 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales |
| 19 - US Reserve Currency |
| 20 - US Dollar Weakness |
| 21 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration |
| 22 - US Banking Crisis II |
| 23 - China - Japan Regional Conflict |
| 24 - Corruption |
| 25 - Public Sentiment & Confidence |
| 26 - Food Price Pressures |
| 27 - Global Output Gap |
| 28 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis |
| 29 - Central & Eastern Europe |
| 30 - Terrorist Event |
| 31 - Pandemic / Epidemic | 32 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures |
| 33 - Resource Shortage |
| 34 - Cyber Attack or Complexity Failure |
| 35 - Corporate Bankruptcies |
| 36 - Iran Nuclear Threat |
| 37- Finance & Insurance Balance Sheet Write-Offs |
| 38- Government Backstop Insurance |
| 39 - Oil Price Pressures |
| 40 - Natural Physical Disaster |
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MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES TODAY
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CHECK OUT OUR PAGE DEDICATED TO FINANCIAL REPRESSION The Financial Repression AuthorityTM
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FINANCIAL REPRESSION - Negative, long-term effects of massive Money Printing American Thinker posted essay emphasizes the negative, long-term effects of massive money printing through quantitative easing (QE) & of the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) .. it's all about the financial repression of interest rates - the thinking being that if this were not done, the pain of allowing the free markets to determine interest rates would be unbearable - "One need only imagine the bipartisan political panic were the interest paid by the U.S. federal government on its debt to double or triple, squeezing out hundreds of billions of dollars of spending on military and social programs. It is becoming ever more obvious to ever more people that sustaining these 'financial repression' policies is making economies ever more comatose; ever less dynamic. Exactly when the accumulating long-term economic damage becomes more onerous to central bankers and politicians than the short-term damage of ending QE and ZIRP can’t be known. But that inflection point will come, desired or not; willed or not. It is not avoidable." If the world’s central bankers are successful in pursuit of their short-term goals by the use of Quantitative Easing (QE) and Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) -- winning the race to the bottom in currency devaluation to the cheers of economically dogmatic, faux-literate media -- these bankers can’t then avoid being failures over the intermediate and longer terms in the race to attract productive, job creating investment. This appeared on April 10 in ZeroHedge.com:
There is no argument now that what has been and is currently missing from the global economic recovery is private market investment in the means of production -- land, building, equipment, productivity-related technology, and software. Attempts in the last 7 years by governments to tax, print, borrow, and regulate their way to prosperity are ever more clearly the reason that this private market investment has been and is being delayed, deferred and cancelled. No sane corporate manager invests long term into a currency that is being persistently undercut by official doctrines -- QE and ZIRP -- nor into an economy undermined by unpredictable waves of regulation and potentially confiscatory tax regimes. This cause and effect is now being denied only by the most dogmatic of progressive ideologues and blindest “social economists”. Despite the obvious, the central bank of every major country on the planet currently has one or both of these programs in force. The U.S. Fed has, to it credit, ended QE. It is clear, however, that ending ZIRP is going to be a difficult and painful process. And there are more than a few smart observers who think ZIRP will never voluntarily end in the U.S. -- nor in Japan, nor in Europe. Their judgment is that the pain of allowing the free markets to retake control of the level of interest rates of intermediate and long maturity bonds, called ending ‘financial repression’, will prove unbearable. One need only imagine the bipartisan political panic were the interest paid by the U.S. federal government on its debt to double or triple, squeezing out hundreds of billions of dollars of spending on military and social programs. It is becoming ever more obvious to ever more people that sustaining these 'financial repression' policies is making economies ever more comatose; ever less dynamic. Exactly when the accumulating long-term economic damage becomes more onerous to central bankers and politicians than the short-term damage of ending QE and ZIRP can’t be known. But that inflection point will come, desired or not; willed or not. It is not avoidable. Michael Booth, often posting and commenting as Cato, lectured in finance and economics at the Univ. of Texas, and worked for 20 years as an independent contractor and managerial trainer on financial topics in the technology industry. |
04-13-15 | THESIS | ||||||||
| MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - April 5th, 2015 - Apr. 11th, 2015 | ||||||||||
| RISK REVERSAL - WOULD BE MARKED BY: Slowing Momentum, Weakening Earnings, Falling Estimates | 1 | |||||||||
| CHINA BUBBLE | 2 | |||||||||
| JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION | 3 | |||||||||
| BOND BUBBLE | 4 | |||||||||
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| SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] | 6 | |||||||||
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| MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week | ||||||||||
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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| THESIS - Mondays Posts on Financial Repression & Posts on Thursday as Key Updates Occur | ||||||||||
| 2015 - FIDUCIARY FAILURE | 2015 | THESIS 2015 |  |
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| 2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP | 2014 |  |
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| THEMES - Normally a Thursday Themes Post & a Friday Flows Post | ||||||||||
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| - - SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - STATISM | M | THEME | ||||||||
| - - CATALYSTS - FEAR (POLITICALLY) & GREED (FINANCIALLY) | G | THEME | ||||||||
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| - GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY | G | THEME | ||||||||
| - - SOCIAL UNREST - INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT | US | THEME | ||||||||
| - - ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM | M | THEME | ||||||||
| - -GLOBAL GROWTH & JOBS CRISIS | ||||||||||
| - - - PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX - NATURE OF WORK | THEME | MACRO w/ CHS |
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| - - - STANDARD OF LIVING - EMPLOYMENT CRISIS, SUB-PRIME ECONOMY | US | THEME | MACRO w/ CHS |
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| FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS | MATA RISK ON-OFF |
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| CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE | THEME | |||||||||
| SHADOW BANKING - LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE | M | THEME | ||||||||
| GENERAL INTEREST |
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