GEO-POLITICAL EVENT RISK - Greece, Puerto Rico, China and France

Greece Will Default To IMF Tomorrow, Government Official Says

Earlier today, as the exchange between Greece and its creditors got increasingly belligerent, Estonian Prime Minister Taavi said that "Greece’s debt would still remain outstanding and creditors would expect this money back." So did this latest antagonism change the Greek mind? According to a flash headline by the WSJ released moments ago, not all. In fact, Greece just made it official that it would default to the IMF in just over 24 hours: "Greece won't pay IMF tranche due Tuesday, government official says"

Puerto Rico Announces Bond Payment "Moratorium"

Having concluded last night that Puerto Rico debt is "unpayable," and that his government could not continue to borrow money to address budget deficits while asking its residents, already struggling with high rates of poverty and crime, to shoulder most of the burden through tax increases and pension cuts, Padilla confirmed tonight that: PUERTO RICO TO SEEK "NEGOTIATED MORATORIUM", 'YEARS' OF POSTPONEMENT IN DEBT PAYMENTS. Likening his state's situation to that of Detroit and New York City (though not Greece), Padilla concluded, the economic situation is "extremely difficult," which is odd because just a few years ago when they issued that bond - everything was awesome?

Strap In! China Is Crashing Again

In the last 2 days, PBOC has thrown everything at the ponzi-fest they call a rational market. An RRR cut, a Benchmark rate cut, a rev repo rate cut, a CNY50 Bn rev repo injection, a stamp duty cut, IPO halts (cut supply), and last but not least permission to speculate with a reassurance that shares on a solid foundation. The outcome of all this policy-panic - CHINEXT (China's Nasdaq) is down another 6% today (down 25% in 3 days) and aside from CSI-300 futures, all other major Chinese indices are in free-fall. Add to that the fact that industrial metals are collapsing with steel rebar limit down and it appears Central Bank Omnipotence is under threat.

French Economy In "Dire Straits", "Worse Than Anyone Can Imagine", Leaked NSA Cable Reveals

Moscovici who served as French finance minister until 2014 and then became European commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs, used some very colorful language, i.e., the French economic situation was "worse than anyone [could] imagine and drastic measures [would] have to be taken in the next two years”. 

Alasdair Macleod sees the criticality of the Greek crisis as being central to the solvency of the European Central Bank (ECB) itself & therefore confidence in the euro currency .. "The ECB's balance sheet, which is heavily dependent on Eurozone bond prices not collapsing, is itself extremely vulnerable to the knock-on effects from Greece. As the situation at the ECB becomes clear to financial markets, the euro's legitimacy as a currency may be questioned, given it is no more than an artificial construct in circulation for only thirteen years. In conclusion, the upsetting of the Greek applecart risks destabilizing the euro itself, and a sub-par rate to the U.S. dollar beckons."

LINK HERE to the essay

Bloomberg reports that European investors are increasing their purchases of gold as Greece's crisis intensifies .. "Investors are searching for a safe haven after Greece imposed capital controls, closed banks and stopped selling gold coins to the public until at least July 6."

LINK HERE to the article

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Is Financial Repression Here to Stay?

LINK HERE to the Article

BCA Research Chief Economist Martin Barnes:

"Financial Repression is Here to Stay"

LINK HERE to the Article & Link to Report

The Era of Financial Repression:

Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund says

Monetary Policy is a Risk to Watch

LINK HERE to the Article

"Financial repression is not a conspiracy theory, it is rather a collective set of macroprudential policies focused on controlling and reducing excessive government debt through 4 pillars - negative interest rates, inflation, ring-fencing regulations and obfuscation - to effectively transfer purchasing power from private savings." - The Financial Repression Authority