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Tue. Jan. 12th, 2016

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KEY TO TIPPING POINTS

1- Bond Bubble
2 - Risk Reversal
3 - Geo-Political Event
4 - China Hard Landing
5 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral
6- EU Banking Crisis
 
7- Sovereign Debt Crisis
8 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate
9 - Chronic Unemployment
10 - US Stock Market Valuations
11 - Global Governance Failure
12 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances
13 - Growing Social Unrest
14 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II
15 - Commercial Real Estate
16 - Credit Contraction II
17- State & Local Government
18 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales
19 - US Reserve Currency
 
20 - US Dollar
21 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration
22 - US Banking Crisis II
23 - China - Japan Regional Conflict
24 - Corruption
25 - Public Sentiment & Confidence
26 - Food Price Pressures
27 - Global Output Gap
28 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis
29 - Central & Eastern Europe
 
30 - Terrorist Event
31 - Pandemic / Epidemic
32 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures
33 - Resource Shortage
34 - Cyber Attack or Complexity Failure
35 - Corporate Bankruptcies
36 - Iran Nuclear Threat
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"BEST OF THE WEEK "

MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES TODAY

 

   

 

BOND BUBBLE

THE ONE CHART YOU SHOULD BE PAYING ATTENTION TO!

 

01-12-16   1

 

China's market turmoil and an extended downturn in oil wreaked havoc on stocks this week, with the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average off to their worst start of a year.

The sell-off has some questioning the strength of the U.S. economy, but few think the world's largest growth center is at risk for a contraction. However, one widely regarded investor says there's little debate: the U.S. is likely already in a recession—and he claims to have hard numbers to bolster his case.

Looking at International Monetary Fund data, "the year-over-year change in global exports is at the second lowest level since 1958," Raoul Pal, Publisher of the Global Macro Investor told CNBC's"Fast Money" this week. Basically, it means economies around the world are shipping their goods at near historically low levels. "Something massive is going on in the global economy and people are missing it," Pal added.

The steep decline in 2015 exports is second only to 2009, when the global recession led to a 37 percent drop in export growth.

Read More US close to recession, world already in one: Pro

There are two main contributing factors to this recession, Pal told CNBC:

  1. A resurgent U.S. dollar and
  2. China's slowdown.

The greenback's strength has helped keep a lid on energy prices, but it's had undeniable spillover effects, the investor said.

"It started unraveling in oil and all commodities, that impacted exports. Everyone had dollar debts and no one had money," Pal added.

The investor correctly predicted the dollar's surge back in November 2014 on CNBC's "Fast Money". Since that call, the dollar has risen 15 percent—an ascent that Pal believes will only continue due to the shortage of dollars globally.

"I don't think I've ever been this right in my career," Pal said.

The dollar's sustained strength has called into question moves by the Federal Reserve and shaken commodity markets. For the time being, Pal believes the greenback's got nowhere else to go but up –and global markets are going to pay for it.

"The markets are following a pattern. Growth has been revised down and it looks like the markets will have to" compensate for the adjustment, Pal said.

"China is certainly a big mess and it's likely to get worse," he said. "Even whether they devalue their currency sharply or slowly, there's still a big mess to work out with all of the debts in the system. I think it's a problem."

Despite the doom and gloom Pal predicted, he suggested one buying opportunity.

"Right now I think one of the best bets in the world is to own the TLT or bonds," Pal said, speaking of the iShares bond exchange traded fund and government debt.

"No one is long of bonds and I think the most likely outcome is that the bond market has a huge rally, expressing inflation."

 

 

TIPPING POINTS, STUDIES, THESIS, THEMES & SII

COVERAGE THIS WEEK PREVIOUSLY POSTED - (BELOW)

 

MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - Jan 10th, 2016 - Jan 16th, 2016      
TIPPING POINTS - This Week - Normally a Tuesday Focus
BOND BUBBLE     1
RISK REVERSAL - WOULD BE MARKED BY: Slowing Momentum, Weakening Earnings, Falling Estimates     2
GEO-POLITICAL EVENT     3
CHINA BUBBLE     4
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION     5

EU BANKING CRISIS

   

6

TO TOP
MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week

GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     

US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES      
     
Market - WEDNESDAY STUDIES
STUDIES - MACRO pdf      

TECHNICALS & MARKET

 

STUDY  
 
COMMODITY CORNER - AGRI-COMPLEX      
     
THESIS - Mondays Posts on Financial Repression & Posts on Thursday as Key Updates Occur
2015 - FIDUCIARY FAILURE 2015 THESIS 2015
2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP 2014

2013 - STATISM

2013-1H

2013-2H

2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION

2012

2013

2014

01-11-16  

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

THE ‘CRISIS OF TRUST’ SIGNALS A ‘FAILURE OF LEADERSHIP’

Recent research released by both the Pew Research Center and Gallup  warn of an accelerating erosion in confidence in our government, politicians and the political process. It is clear to most that we have a growing “Crisis of Trust” which is signaling a “Failure of Leadership” as governments steadily exert increasing power and authority over our lives!

FOUR YEARS AGO WE BECAME SERIOUSLY ALARMED!

In the fall of 2012 having become seriously alarmed, we wrote our annual thesis paper entitled “STATISM” and laid out the frightening direction of US political leadership. We had initially hoped it was a cyclical pattern which had reached a cyclical bottom.

Shift_Towards_Statism-4

WE FOCUSED, MAPPED & TRACKED IT

Our subsequent research efforts have resulted in a large supporting  video library of expert guest interviews at Macro   embellishing on each of the sequentially emerging boxes in the following road-map and additionally the creation of the Financial Repression Authority to understand how our sacred public freedoms were being unwittingly surrendered through financial bondage.

07-15-12-Macro_-Roadmap

The detailed research included a focus on the driving linkages between the identified stages as the developed economies (and the US in particular) accelerated towards more centralized government control of almost all facets of our lives.

01-10-16-Central_Planning_Road-Map

01-10-16-Orwell-Huxley

WHERE WE FIND OURSELVES TODAY

The facts are overwhelming and indisputable for anyone taking the time (which we did) to do their ‘due diligence’.  Time and space which we don’t have here.

As we now agonizingly watch the US Presidential Primary Campaigns, cognoscente of what we previously witnessed in the UK (Jeremy Corbyn), Italy (Beppo Brillo), France (Marie Le Pen) and a raft of other political hot areas, we see a now unquestionable deteriorating shift. A shift firmly rooted in a Crisis of Trust and a direct result of a Failure of Leadership.

Shift_Towards_Statism-3c

ONE CRISIS WAY FROM A MONUMENTAL “TOTALITARIAN” MISTAKE

The Financial Repression Authority is presently concerned that a Geo-political event, conflict or crisis could soon  abruptly catapult the developed economies into a mistaken political direction and a deeper cyclical low. A cycle which is presently already on a dangerous trajectory.  Paul Craig Roberts (a former US Assistant Treasury Secretary) just frustratingly penned “The Rule Of Law No Longer Exists In Western Civilization” outlining the seriousness of criminal and immoral actions by the US government. He illustrates that the dictatorial methods  and unlegislated executive orders by the current President to overturn the Second Amendment are now the political leadership ‘order of the day’ and writes: “He (Obama) has the corrupt US Department of Justice, a criminal organization, looking for ways for the dictator to overturn both Congressional legislation and Supreme Court rulings.

CONCLUSION

Paul Craig Roberts  and the Financial Repression Authority (FRA) sadly concludes – “Out of Evil comes Dictatorship

Shift_Towards_Statism-1b

As the insightful Canadian national anthem warns so well, we must all “Stand on Guard for Thee!”

Never more than today.

 

 

 

2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010 - EXTEND & PRETEND

   
THEMES - Normally a Thursday "Themes" Post & a Friday "Flows" Post
I - POLITICAL
     

CENTRAL PLANNING - SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER - STATISM

MACRO MAP - EVOLVING ERA OF CENTRAL PLANNING

 

G THEME  
- - CRISIS OF TRUST - Era of Uncertainty G THEME  

CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE - MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION - RESENTMENT.

US THEME PAGE
- - SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - STATISM G THEME  
- - CATALYSTS - FEAR (POLITICALLY) & GREED (FINANCIALLY) G THEME  
II-ECONOMIC
     
GLOBAL RISK      
- GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY G THEME  
- - SOCIAL UNREST - INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT US THEME  
- - ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM M THEME  
- -GLOBAL GROWTH & JOBS CRISIS      
- - - PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX - NATURE OF WORK   THEME

MA w/ CHS

  01-08-16 THEME

MA w/ CHS

- - - STANDARD OF LIVING - EMPLOYMENT CRISIS, SUB-PRIME ECONOMY US THEME
MA w/ CHS
III-FINANCIAL
     

FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS

FLOWS - Liqudity, Credit & Debt

LIQUIDITY: Central Bank Liquidity Increases has slowed or Stopped

>> CREDIT: Cycle has turned

DEBT: Defaults/ Bankruptcies Will Emerge

 

MATA

RISK ON-OFF

THEME

w/ R Duncan

CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE 12-31-15 THEME  
SHADOW BANKING - LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE M THEME  
GENERAL INTEREST

 

   
STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - Weekend Coverage
     

 

RETAIL - CRE

 

 

  SII

 

US DOLLAR

 

 

  SII

 

YEN WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII

 

OIL WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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