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"MELT-UP MONITOR " Meltup Monitor: FLOWS - The Currency Cartel Carry Cycle - 09 Dec 2013 Meltup Monitor: FLOWS - Liquidity, Credit & Debt - 04 Dec 2013 Meltup Monitor: Euro Pressure Going Critical - 28- Nov 2013 Meltup Monitor: A Regression-to-the-Exponential Mean Required - 25 Nov 2013
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KEY TO TIPPING POINTS |
| 1 - Risk Reversal |
| 2 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral |
| 3- Bond Bubble |
| 4- EU Banking Crisis |
| 5- Sovereign Debt Crisis |
| 6 - China Hard Landing |
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| 7 - Chronic Unemployment |
| 8 - Geo-Political Event |
| 9 - Global Governance Failure |
| 10 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances |
| 11 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate |
| 12 - Iran Nuclear Threat |
| 13 - Growing Social Unrest |
| 14 - US Banking Crisis II |
| 15 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II |
| 16 - Commercial Real Estate |
| 17 - Credit Contraction II |
| 18- State & Local Government |
| 19 - US Stock Market Valuations |
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| 20 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales |
| 21 - China - Japan Regional Conflict |
| 22 - Public Sentiment & Confidence |
| 23 - US Reserve Currency |
| 24 - Central & Eastern Europe |
| 25 - Oil Price Pressures | 26 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures |
| 27 - Food Price Pressures |
| 28 - Global Output Gap |
| 29 - Corruption |
| 30 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis |
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| 31 - Corporate Bankruptcies |
| 32- Finance & Insurance Balance Sheet Write-Offs |
| 33 - Resource Shortage |
| 34 - US Reserve Currency |
| 35- Government Backstop Insurance |
| 36 - US Dollar Weakness |
| 37 - Cyber Attack or Complexity Failure |
| 38 - Terrorist Event |
| 39 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration |
| 40 - Natural Physical Disaster |
| 41 - Pandemic / Epidemic |
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THESIS 2015 - Fiduciary Failure If Debt Was The Problem…
02-22-15 John Rubino
Confounded Interest�just posted a nice summary�of a McKinsey report on the growth of global debt during what some persist in calling the “great deleveraging.” Turns out that since the crisis of 2008, debt has actually risen by $57 trillion, and the ratio of debt to GDP is up 17 percentage points to 286%. Meanwhile, central banks are monetizing 100% of newly-issued sovereign debt. The obvious response to this is
But unfunded liabilities must be getting better, what with the stocks and bonds in pension fund portfolios soaring lately. Right? Since that’s an effortless Google search, that’s what I did. And the results were both counterintuitive and scary. It seems that even with pension fund investment portfolios booming, obligations to future retirees are rising even faster, making these entities even more underfunded today than in 2007. Here’s a sampling of the headlines just from February, in the order they appear in the search window:
Absent from this list is the US federal government’s number, though that’s also easy to find. From Forbes:�You Think The Deficit Is Bad? Federal Unfunded Liabilities Exceed $127 Trillion. That’s about 6 times the reported federal debt. Now, easy money advocates argue that the solution to this and all other unbalanced economic equations is to borrow and spend enough new cash to get asset prices up and put people back to work. But stocks and bonds are currently at record highs and the unemployment rate is below 6% (peak-of-the-cycle kinds of numbers that have historically preceded corrections in which investment returns and tax receipts both plunge, raising unfunded liabilities). So it looks like we’ve thrown our best punch and the problem is still standing there, wondering if that’s all we’ve got. Which leaves the US and the rest of the world — where debt and unfunded liabilities also continue to rise — with the question: If debt was the thing that nearly destroyed the global financial system in 2008 and debt — both narrowly and broadly defined — is way up since then, what happens in the next downturn? The answer is who knows, because this is uncharted territory both in terms of the size of the imbalances and governments’ policy responses. The only thing that’s certain is that there are more cities, states and related pension funds poised to blow up than ever before. � |
02-24-15 | THESIS FIDUCIARY FAILURE |
30 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis |
THESIS 2015 - Fiduciary Failure President Obama Explains The "Changes" He'd Like To Make To Retirement Accounts - Live Feed � Speaking at AARP headqusrters in Washington, President Obama will announce ORDERS to the Labor Department to�write new rules for financial managers who handle retirement accounts for working Americans.� THE COVER
THE AGENDA White House officials said they want�new fiduciary standards that would require financial advisers to put clients' interests ahead of their own...�and "buy our bonds." We wonder how long before there will be an official asset allocation by dictat... � |
02-24-15 | THESIS FIDUCIARY FAILURE |
30 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis |
| MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - Feb. 22nd, 2015 - Feb. 28th, 2015 | � | � | � |
| RISK REVERSAL | � | � | 1 |
| JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION | � | � | 2 |
| BOND BUBBLE | � | � | 3 |
EU BANKING CRISIS |
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| SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker] | � | � | 5 |
CHINA BUBBLE |
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| MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week | |||
GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS |
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| STUDIES - MACRO pdf - THE 'MORAL HAZARD RISK' OF CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION | � | � | � |
| COMMODITY CORNER - AGRI-COMPLEX | � | PORTFOLIO | � |
| SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX | � | PORTFOLIO | � |
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| 2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP | 2014 | ![]() |
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FIRST FATCA - Next GATCA "This a modern day "Doomsday" Book, the same as William the Conqueror Implemented in 1066 after conquering England. He needed to know where the wealth was so he could tax it" "This is Not Really About Tax There are Easier Ways to Solve Tax Tracking - Its about a Common Reporting Standard. Its about the ability to track Capital" "FATCA is a decoy for the Common Reporting Standard" "There is an incredibly aggressive urgency of implementation - an unprecedentedly quick agreement between 57 governments" � Why? Either to Tax it , Expropriation it or Control Its Free Movement � "Era of Banking Secrecy is Over!" "A Complete Misunderstanding by Banks" NEW ACRONYMS IN THE ERA OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION
THE ROAD AHEAD: FATCA, IGAS AND THE CRS The costs of FATCA Compliance will be USD 1 to 2 trillion worldwide. The bulk of these costs will be incurred in the customer outreach required to obtain the required documentation. There will also be considerable customer backlash to FATCA and the documentation it requires. In the age of social media this matters, if this sounds like hyperbole please have a look at this URL At a most basic level FATCA, the IGAs and the CRS are about making tax part of standard KYC/AML procedures and then reporting, for tax purposes, to those jurisdictions, in which the account holder has tax residence or citizenship.
EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT GATCA / FATCA �
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02-23-15 | THESIS | |
� GRAHAM SUMMERS on Financial Repression "QE was never meant to create jobs or generate economic growth… it was a desperate ploy by Central Banks to put a floor under the bond market so rates wouldn’t rise. ... It’s also why Central Banks have kept interest rates at zero or even negative. They cannot afford to have rates rise. In the US, every 1% increase in interest rates means between $150-$175 billion more in interest payments on our debt per year. As Dylan Grice from Societe General notes: when you include unfunded liabolities, this problem is endemic throughout the Western world and has been for years.
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02-23-15 | THESIS | |
2011 2012 2013 2014 |
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| FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS | � | THEME | |
| SHADOW BANKING -LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE | � | THEME | � |
| CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE | � | THEME | � |
| ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM | � | THEME | � |
| PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX -NATURE OF WORK | � | THEME | � |
| STANDARD OF LIVING -EMPLOYMENT CRISIS | � | THEME | � |
| CORPORATOCRACY -CRONY CAPITALSIM | � | THEME | ![]() |
CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE -MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION, SHORTAGES. |
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| SOCIAL UNREST -INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT | � | THEME | � |
| SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX -STATISM | � | THEME | � |
| GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY | � | THEME | � |
| CENTRAL PLANINNG -SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER | � | THEME | � |
| CATALYSTS -FEAR & GREED | � | THEME | � |
| GENERAL INTEREST | � |
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Tipping Points Life Cycle - Explained
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